Bookies Cannot Predict Spanish Football - the 08/09 Betting Report

November 10th, 2009 - by BettingExpert.com

Which leagues are the best to bet on? The answer to this question is probably both valuable and interesting to most tipsters, because it can help you find the most profitable leagues for you to bet on.

The short answer to the question is that it seems very doable to beat the bookies in Spain, and almost impossible to do the same in Germany. In the 2008/2009 season, the BettingExpert tipsters have had a positive result on 441.2 units (15.7%) on Spanish la Primera, and a negative yield on 342.9 units (13.9%) on German Bundesleague. Who would have thought that Spain is more predictable than Germany?


Most profitable league, sorted by yield in percent.

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> At BettingExpert.com, we have gathered all the betting information from the 2008/2009 season to see which sports and leagues that are the easiest to make some money on.

First a few words about the data:
- the report is based on 11.161 picks, made by 216 different tipster on BettingExpert.com
- the total outcome of the 11.162 picks is a positive yield on 1.315 units (+1.5%)
- only leagues and sports with 100+ bets are accepted in this report

There are two ways to calculate the most profitable league in the 2008-2009 season:
(a) units won
(b) yield
As the number of picks per league vary quite a lot, we are ranking the different sports and leagues based on the yield percentage.


Least profitable league, sorted by yield in percent.

Bet on Spain, not Germany

Most profitable league, sorted by yield in percent.

If we look at the yield of the leagues and sports surpassing 100 picks in the season, Romania and Peru seems to be the leagues with the highest yield. The third most profitable league is - maybe quite surprisingly - the Spanish first division football. It is really interesting that the tipsters at BettingExpert.com on average have 15,70% yield in this league. We consider the Spanish league to be more interesting because the markets are bigger and that enables you to place higher bets on Spanish football than Romanian and Peruvian football. Also, when we look at the units won, spanish la primera football is the winner with 441.2+ yields for the 2008/2009 season.

Tennis, both ATP and WTA, French Ligue 1 and Dutch Eredivisie all seems profitable too with season profits ranging between 2.6% and 5.7%. The data also reveals a positive yield of international friendly matches. That may come as a surprise, since one could suspect that these matches are highly unpredictable, simply because nothing but honor is at stake in these matches.

While Spain seems to be the most profitable of the big football leagues, making money on German football seems to be a hard thing to do. The 1. Bundesleague is the hardest league, and the results of the 08/09 season is -13.9% (-342.9 units). The second hardest league seems to be the German Bundesleague with a negative yield on -12.40% (-125.7 units). German football equals a total loss of 478.6 units. It seems like the bookies have a pretty good grasp on German football.


Most profitable league, sorted by units won/lost.

The data in the Betting Report 08/09

Please note that this report is based solely on the data from the picks made by the tipsters on bettingexpert.com. There is a risk that it is skewed or unrepresentative compared to the overall betting market. Therefore, you have to be careful generalizing the results of this report.

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