20 NFL Playoff Betting Facts
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
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With the NFL playoffs upon us, Andrew delivers some interesting, possibly useful if not obscure historical NFL betting facts.
Since season 2000, playoff teams that covered the line 7 times or less during the regular season, are 12-22-1 against the line in the playoffs. Further than that, teams in this category that won 10 games or fewer, are 7-18-1 against the line in the playoffs.
Since 2000, playoffs teams that covered the line 11 or more times during the regular season, are 15-20-1 in the playoffs. Further than that, teams in this category that won 12 or more games are 6-15 against the line in the playoffs.
Since 1980, home teams have covered the line in just under 55% of playoff games played, with NFC home clubs covering 58% of the time, while AFC clubs covered 51% of the time. But since 2001, overall home teams have covered just 46% of playoff games played with home clubs in both conferences covering at the same rate.
Since 1980, there have been 3 playoff games where a club started favourites of more than 14 points. The favourite covered the line each time, with the biggest line of -19 covered by the 49ers in their SuperBowl victory over San Diego.
Since 1986 there have been 8 playoff games where the Over/Under line was 54 points or higher. The game went over in 6 of those games. During that same span, 10 playoff games have started with a total of 33 points or less. 7 of those 10 games went over.
Since 1980, playoff clubs that are playing away have covered the line 38-30-2 when they failed to cover the line in their previous game, but 100-138-3 when they did cover the line in their previous game.
Since 1980, home playoff underdogs are 19-11 against the line. The biggest home playoff underdog since 1980 was Seattle last season, home dogs of +10 against New Orleans. The second biggest was New Orleans +5.5 underdogs against the Rams in 2000. Both underdogs won their games outright.
The Washington Redskins have been the best team against line in the playoffs since 1980, with a 19-7 record against the line, just ahead of the rival New York Giants 19-8, giving the NFC East the best divisional record of 70-47 against the line. The worst playoff record against the line goes to Kansas City, 2-12 since 1980, with the NFC South going 19-30 against the line to hold the worst division record since 1980.
Since 1980, home teams going into playoff games on a 8 game or more outright winning streak, are 9-20 against the line. On the other hand, home playoff clubs coming into a playoff game on a 2 game or more losing streak are 12-4 against the line.
Since 1980, away playoff teams that failed to cover the line for 2 or more consecutive weeks, are 16-9-1 against the line, while away playoff clubs that covered the line for 6 or more consecutive weeks were 4-8-1 against the line.
Since 1980, home playoff clubs that covered the line for 4 or more consecutive weeks are 22-14-1 against the line, while home playoff clubs that failed to cover the line for 2 or more consecutive weeks are 30-20 against the line.
Since 1980, home playoff clubs are 38-22 against the line when coming into their playoff game off a loss of 3 points or more, but are just 29-27-1 coming into a home playoff game off a win or 22 points or more.
Since 1980, away playoff clubs are 33-49-1 coming into their playoff game off a win of 17 points or more, and are 2-11 against the line coming into their away playoff game off a loss of 13 points or more.
Since 1980, when the home club entered the game on a streak of 3 or more games going Over, their playoff game went Over in 16-12. But when an away entered a playoff game on a streak of 3 or more games going Over, the playoff game went Under in just 19-12. When a home playoff team entered a playoff on a streak of 4 or more games going Under, the game went Under 9-5. But when an away club entered a playoff game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive games going Under, the game went Over 14-7.
Since 1994, when a home playoff club played away in their previous game, they are 40-29-1 against the line. They are 57-57-3 when playing at home in their previous game.
Despite the success of home playoff teams since 1980, when they have been favoured between -3 and -6, they have covered the line 63-63-3. Outside of this range, home playoff clubs are 115-81-2, or just under 59%.
When away playoff clubs have come off an underdog home win, since 1980 they are just 1-12 against the line in the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds.
Since 1980, home teams in Conference Championships are 35-27 overall against the line, but are 29-19 when coming off a Divisional round victory in which they covered the line.
On the other hand, away clubs in Conference Championships are 21-33 against the line when they covered the line in the Divisional round win, and 5-2 when they failed to cover.
Favourites in the SuperBowl are 0-3-1 against the line when they failed to cover the line in their Conference Championship victory since 1980, while through the same span, underdogs are 2-1 against the line when they failed to cover the line in their Conference victory.
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