Australian Open Mens Tennis Betting Analysis

Nov 16th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Tennis

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Who will succeed at the 2012 Australian Open? Do favourites win more often than not? Which rounds see the value for underdogs? Andrew breaks down the numbers for the 2012 mens tournament down under.

Overall133

It's still a couple of months before the Australian Open commences at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, but it's the perfect time to breakdown the odds from previous Australian Open tournaments, and see where the bookmakers got it right, where they got it wrong and provide you with some numbers to keep in mind when placing your bets in the 2012 tournament.

So let's get into it.

1st Round

So let's start by looking at how the first round has played out over the previous 10 tournaments, dating back to 2001. We will be assessing a range of odds categories using 'even stakes' to see how each has performed in terms of profit, loss and overall return.

Favourite starting odds	Favourite Profit/Loss	Underdog Profit/Loss	Favourite % Return	Underdog % Return
1.01 - 1.10	1.6	-74.8	1.6%	-74.4%
1.11 - 1.25	4.9	-62.5	3.1%	-39.5%
1.26 - 1.50	-6.2	-19.8	-3%	-9.6%
1.51 - 1.72	-16.9	8.8	-13.6%	7.1%
1.73 - 1.90	-8.6	4.7	-17.1%	9.4%

Above you can see that had you bet a single unit on each underdog coming up against a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.25 in the first round the last 10 tournaments, you would have come away with a combined loss of 53% on your investment. Favourites in this price range have dominated the first round.

We find a different trend when we look at favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 the last 10 years. Had you bet against such favourites, you would have made a handsome 'even stakes' profit of almost 8% over a total of 174 matches.

2nd Round

In round 2 we see a similar story for very short priced favourites between 1.01 and 1.25. While betting on them at 'even stakes' would not have provided you with a profit, betting against them would have been disasterous leaving you with a combined loss of just over 43%.

Favourite starting odds	Favourite Profit/Loss	Underdog Profit/Loss	Favourite % Return	Underdog % Return
1.01 - 1.10	0.2	-44.5	0.3%	-61.6%
1.11 - 1.25	-0.4	-25	-0.5%	-28.2%
1.26 - 1.50	-6.4	-1.7	-8.9%	-2.4%
1.51 - 1.72	3	-13	4.5%	-20%
1.73 - 1.90	0.7	-2.6	3.3%	-12.4%

Also worth noting is that favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 have bounced back in round 2. Whereas they took a beating in round 1, in round 2 over the last 10 tournaments, betting on them at 'even stakes' would have seen you come away with a return of just over 4% from 86 matches.

3rd Round

Round 3 has been the round for favourites at the Australian Open mens tournament the last 10 years.

Favourite starting odds	Favourite Profit/Loss	Underdog Profit/Loss	Favourite % Return	Underdog % Return
1.01 - 1.10	1.3	-34	3.8%	-100%
1.11 - 1.25	3.5	-23	10.7%	-69.4%
1.26 - 1.50	-0.3	-7.7	-0.7%	-17.6%
1.51 - 1.72	6.1	-12.6	15.8%	-32.8%
1.73 - 1.90	-3.7	3.2	-38.9%	35.6%

Betting at 'even stakes' on favourites priced between 1.01 and 1.72 the last 10 years would have seen you come away with a profitable return of just over 7%. A very handsome number. Further, not one favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.10 has been beaten in the 3rd round of the Australian Open over the last 10 tournaments.

And while underdogs in matches with the favourite starting between odds of 1.73 and 1.90 were extremely profitable in terms of return, this result was the product of a sample size of just 9 matches.

4th Round

Round 4 has been generous to favourite backers too, although results have been a little inconsistent.

Favourite starting odds	Favourite Profit/Loss	Underdog Profit/Loss	Favourite % Return	Underdog % Return
1.01 - 1.10	0.9	-16	5.6%	-100%
1.11 - 1.25	-2.7	12	-14.4%	63.9%
1.26 - 1.50	-1.5	-2	-5.6%	-7.6%
1.51 - 1.72	0.3	-2.6	2.1%	-17.9%
1.73 - 1.90	2	-3	27.1%	-41.4%

Short priced favourites have given an 'even stakes' profit of just on 5.6%, with once again not one favourite in this category being beaten in the 4th round the last 10 Australian Open tournaments.

The results have not been so good for favourites priced between 1.11 and 1.25. Betting against these favourites in the 4th round would have given you a return of almost 64% the last 10 tournament.

Lastly, favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 have been solid in the 4th round. Betting on these favourites at 'even stakes' would have seen you claim a return of over 10% the last 10 tournaments, though only a small sample size of 22 matches.

The Finals

Betting results have been quite intriguing in the mens tournament of the Australian Open over the last 10 years from the quarter-final stage onwards.

Favourite starting odds	Favourite Profit/Loss	Underdog Profit/Loss	Favourite % Return	Underdog % Return
1.01 - 1.10	-0.5	-1.3	-5.6%	-13.3%
1.11 - 1.25	2.1	-14	10.5%	-70.5%
1.26 - 1.50	-11.7	22.2	-43.1%	81.5%
1.51 - 1.72	1.4	-3.2	13%	-31.5%
1.73 - 1.90	2.3	-3	44%	-58%

We can see that favourites have performed quite well when priced between 1.01 and 1.25 and between 1.51 and 1.90. Betting at 'even stakes' on these favourites from the Quarter-Final stage onwards, would have seen you take away a profit of almost 12% the last 10 tournaments.

However, favourites priced between 1.26 and 1.50, have performed poorly throughout the finals. Betting against these favourites would have seen you claim a very attractive return of over 81% the last 10 tournaments. And more to the point, over 38% of finals matchups have started with a favourite in this range over the last 10 years, a total of 27 matches.

Games per match

Let's now have a look at the median number of games it took to complete matches given different odds ranges and results.

Favourite starting odds	When favourites win	When underdogs win
1.01 - 1.10	28	40
1.11 - 1.25	32	41
1.26 - 1.50	33	40
1.51 - 1.72	35	38
1.73 - 1.90	37	38

Overall we can see a steady progression through each odds range, dependant upon whether the favourite or underdog won. When favourites between odds of 1.01 and 1.10 have won, the median result was 28 games, while when they were defeated, as few times as that was, it took the underdog around 40 games to secure the upset victory.

Sets per match.

Lastly, let's look at how many sets we might expect to see given various odds ranges and results.

Favourite starting odds	3 sets to 2	3 sets to 1	3 sets to 0
1.01 - 1.10	5.3%	19.1%	75.6%
1.11 - 1.25	12.8%	31.6%	55.6%
1.26 - 1.50	21.5%	27.3%	51.2%
1.51 - 1.72	21.5%	30.6%	47.9%
1.73 - 1.90	29.7%	31.3%	39%

Above we can see the occurrence for each result when favourites win. We see that the chances of a match ending in a 3 set sweep diminshes steadily as the odds approach even money, while the chances of a 3 to 2 set victory increases as the odds approach even.

The chances of a match ending 3 sets to 1 appears rather consistent when the favourite starts at odds between 1.11 and 1.90 and is victorious, with a 3-1 result occurring roughly 30% of the time.

Favourite starting odds	3 sets to 2	3 sets to 1	3 sets to 0
1.01 - 1.10	42.9%	14.3%	42.8%
1.11 - 1.25	37.8%	40.5%	21.7%
1.26 - 1.50	33%	40.6%	26.4%
1.51 - 1.72	27.7%	38.3%	34%
1.73 - 1.90	29.3%	43.9%	26.8%

Above we can see the occurrence rates when underdogs win. Here we see inconsistent results, mainly due to a smaller sample size than when favourites have won. We do however see that the chances of a 3 to 1 set final result once again consistent through odds ranges of a favourite starting between 1.11 and 1.90, with roughly a 40% chances of this result occurring when the underdog wins over the last 10 tournaments.

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