Australian Open Women's Tennis Betting Analysis
Jan 4th, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Tennis
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
The Australian Open isn't far away now. Where has the value been in the women's tournament in recent years? Have favourites performed well? Today on the Blog Andrew takes a look.
It's only a couple of weeks before the Australian Open commences at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne. A couple of months ago I broke down the numbers for the men's tournament. Today I will take a look at the women's tournament. We will look at the last 5 tournaments and see where the bookmakers got it right, where they got it wrong and provide you with some numbers to keep in mind when placing your bets in the 2012 tournament.
So let's begin.
1st Round
So let's start by looking at how the 1st round of the women's draw has played out over the previous 5 tournaments, dating back to 2006. We will be assessing a range of odds categories using 'even stakes' to see how each has performed in terms of profit, loss and overall return.
| Favourite starting odds | Favourite Profit/Loss | Underdog Profit/Loss | Favourite % Return | Underdog % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | -0.5 | -35.9 | -0.7% | -48.6% |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 0.8 | -21.3 | 1.3% | -34.9% |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | -7.2 | 6.2 | -8.8% | 7.5% |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | -10.1 | 3.8 | -14.3% | 5.4% |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | -6.0 | 3.5 | -19.0% | 11.3% |
Above we can see that had you bet a single unit on each underdog in the 1st round coming up against a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.25 in the first round the last 10 tournaments, you would have come away with a combined loss of 43% on your investment. Favourites in this price range have performed well in the 1st round, though at even stakes making only a small profit.
We find a different result when we consider favourites priced between 1.26 and 1.90 over the last 5 tournaments. Had you bet against such favourites, you would have come away with an 'even stakes' profit of over 7% over a sample size of 182 matches.
2nd Round
In the 2nd round we see a similar story for very short priced favourites between 1.01 and 1.25. While betting on them at 'even stakes' would have given you a slight loss, betting against them would have left you with a combined loss of over 34%.
| Favourite starting odds | Favourite Profit/Loss | Underdog Profit/Loss | Favourite % Return | Underdog % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | -2.6 | -8.1 | -5.1% | -15.5% |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 2.3 | -22.7 | 5.9% | -57.2% |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | -3.9 | 2.9 | -10.6% | 7.8% |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | 1.6 | -5.2 | 6.7% | -21.2% |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 1.4% | -11.4% |
Also worth noting is that favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 were profitable in the 2nd round where they weren't in the 1st. In round 2 over the last 5 women's tournaments, betting on them at 'even stakes' would have seen you come away with a profit of over 5% from 31 matches played.
3rd Round
Round 3 we see underdogs bounce back. The majority of games in the 3rd round, about 85% were games that started with a favourite of 1.50 or less.
| Favourite starting odds | Favourite Profit/Loss | Underdog Profit/Loss | Favourite % Return | Underdog % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | 0.2 | -15.0 | 0.9% | -62.6% |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | -2.3 | 1.4 | -10.0% | 5.9% |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | -2.0 | 2.1 | -9.5% | 10.0% |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | -3.2 | 3.4 | -28.2% | 30.0% |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 80.0% | -100.0% |
Betting at 'even stakes' against favourites priced between 1.11 and 1.72 over the last 5 years would have seen you come away with a profitable return of 13%. A very handsome number. Further, only once was a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.10 been defeated in the 3rd round of the women's tournament over the last 5 years.
It should also be noted that while underdogs in matches with the favourite starting between odds of 1.73 and 1.90 brought a profit of 80%, this number is the result of just 1 match played.
4th Round
As we saw with the men's tournament, the results in the 4th round have been a little inconsistent.
| Favourite starting odds | Favourite Profit/Loss | Underdog Profit/Loss | Favourite % Return | Underdog % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | -0.6 | 0.6 | -7.5% | 7.5% |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 0.1 | -2.2 | 1.4% | -30.0% |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | -3.8 | 6.1 | -30.8% | 49.2% |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | 3.0 | -5.2 | 29.0% | -51.0% |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 1.7 | -2.0 | 85.0% | -100.0% |
There isn't too much we can take away from round 4 results. Favourites and underdogs have generally split the profitability. Over the last 5 women's tournaments, favourites have won 75% of 4th round matches played.
The Finals
| Favourite starting odds | Favourite Profit/Loss | Underdog Profit/Loss | Favourite % Return | Underdog % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 10.0% | -100.0% |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 2.7 | -13.0 | 20.0% | -100.0% |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | 0.4 | -4.5 | 2.5% | -30.8% |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | -2.5 | 3.2 | -30.0% | 37.1% |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -10.0% | 0.0% |
We can see that favourites have performed reasonably well when priced between 1.01 and 1.50. Betting at 'even stakes' on these favourites from the Quarter-Final stage onwards, would have seen you take away a profit of 11% the last 5 women's tournaments.
Also to note that while favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90, have performed poorly throughout the finals, this result came from a sample size of 10 matches.
Games per match
Let's now have a look at the median number of games it took to complete matches given different odds ranges and results.
| Favourite starting odds | When favourites win | When underdogs win |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | 18 | 28 |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 19 | 24 |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | 21 | 22 |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | 22 | 22 |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 19 | 19 |
Overall we can see an expected progression through each odds range up until the range of 1.73 to 1.90. When favourites between odds of 1.01 and 1.10 have won, the median result was 18 games, while when they were defeated, it took the underdog around 28 games to secure the upset victory.
Sets per match.
Lastly, let's look at how many sets we might expect to see given various odds ranges and results.
| Favourite starting odds | 2 sets to 1 | 2 sets to 0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | 14.0% | 86.0% | |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 28.7% | 71.3% | |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | 33.6% | 66.4% | |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | 42.0% | 58.0% | |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
Above we can see the occurrence for each result when favourites win. We see that the chances of a match ending in a 2-0 sweep diminshes steadily up until until the 1.73 to 1.90 range .
| Favourite starting odds | 2 sets to 1 | 2 sets to 0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 - 1.10 | 63.6% | 36.4% | |
| 1.11 - 1.25 | 64.7% | 35.3% | |
| 1.26 - 1.50 | 45.3% | 54.7% | |
| 1.51 - 1.72 | 36.5% | 63.5% | |
| 1.73 - 1.90 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Above we can see the occurrence rates when underdogs win. We can see a steady and expected increase in the probability of a match ending 2 set to none as we approach 'even money'.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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Hi Andrew - I have been following you on twitter and I find your articles of an incredible value. Can I ask which database software do you use to dig into your data ? Thanks
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Thanks for the feedback Soragaiarda. I just use Open Office software at the moment, both Calc and Base.