The Last Month In Betting Headlines, News And Notes
There's always plenty going on in the world of betting. Today on the blog Andrew takes a look around the web and the last month in betting news.
"In a series of covertly recorded conversations over the past fortnight, he claimed that lower league matches could be fixed for as little as £50,000 and correctly forecast the outcome of three games played by the same team."
One of the biggest stories of the year, yet not much of a surprise to most. The Telegraph further questioned why the FA had failed to act when a match between Conference clubs Billericay Town and Welling attracted over £1million in bets, more than a Champions League match featuring Barcelona, played the same evening.
”Yes, before one of them turns into a walker (or a biter, if you are the Governor’s fanboy) you might as well put a little wager on them and potentially earn. You know, maybe even earn a living off these deaths if you have Nostradamus-like skills in forecasting these things.”
SPOILER: Hershel dies next
“Postal inspectors say for more than 10 years, the suspect in this case sent out flyers with big promises including making $4,500 a day or $38,000 the first two weeks. They even promised $136,000 in a month by only spending $10 dollars a day.”
Safe to say that promising $136,000 a month by spending just $10 dollars a day would (or should) sound alarm bells. Unless you're anticipating a return of around 450% of course.
”It's very common for traders to say a price is value (especially when laying low odds) but the fact is, you can never say a price is value unless you have some idea of what the "true" or "correct" price should be. Whenever I see someone say "I entered because I thought it was value" I ask them "So if that price was value, you must think the market was wrong - so what was the correct price?”
Our regular tennis blogger The Sultan discusses on his blog some of the common mistakes he has observed in tennis traders.
“One of (Australia's) biggest gamblers, Steve Fletcher, is behind a betting scandal where the identities of many NSW police officers were used to open hundreds of betting accounts to enable Mr Fletcher and another punter, Darren Azzopardi, to disguise their betting activities.”
So what do you do when you can't get a bet on anywhere? Well get some police officers involved obviously.
”If this season you had simply backed every single home side in the top 5 English leagues and the SPL, you would actually be showing a 21.93 pt profit (at single 1 pt stakes) and a Return on Investment of 4.01%! This is because there have been 7% more home wins this season than last with 46% in 2013/14 compared to just 39% in 2012/13.”
Our friends at the Secret Betting Club took a look in early November at why so many punters had suffered such a difficult start to the season and how a long term view is crucial to betting success.
”When I started predicting things many moons ago I quickly realised one important fact. You start at a top level, then slowly drill down deeper and deeper. But beyond a certain point the level of entropy you see outweighs the predictive capacity of what you are doing.”
Good piece from BetAngel looking at the issues of building a predictive model with too many variables.
”Brian Griffin died on “Family Guy” and that’s pretty much what everyone is talking about. With such rampant speculation and next to no answers, oddsmakers have set up some betting lines for the return of Brian and which “Family Guy” character may meet the same fate.”
Glenn Quagmire is at odds of 5.00 to be the next Family Guy character to be killed off. Giggity giggity.
“The researchers said: ‘On the one hand, waiting for a last-minute decision may allow them to improve their information set. On the other hand, if they cannot efficiently process all inputs accruing in proximity to the event, information overload may be detrimental.’”
According to the study it's all about processing information efficiently. The closer you get to kickoff, the more “noise” you are bombarded with, reducing the likelihood of applying more straightforward and reliable 'prediction methods'. You can read the complete study here.
“Online betting site Bovada set the over/under on the sale price at $80,000 (select "All events" and hit refresh to see the prop). If you were planning to enter the bidding at more than $80,000, hopefully you took that bet.”
It's game 5 of the 1997 NBA Finals. Michael Jordan has the flu. He plays. He scores 38 points giving the Bulls a 3-2 lead in the series. A former Jazz ball boy who was given the shoes after the game, has put them up for auction. And of course you can bet on what price they will fetch.
“Ranjit Sinha had a simple task when he went out to speak at the CBI's global law enforcement conference in Delhi: Support the legalisation of sports betting in India. Instead, the CBI Director made a hash of it.”
Just a bit of advice for anyone involved in a debate, not just a debate about betting, but really, a debate of any kind. Do not ever use rape as the basis of an analogy.
“Canadian online gambling website Bodog.ca is allowing its users to wager on embattled Mayor Rob Ford’s immediate future by posing the question: What will Toronto Mayor Rob Ford do before Dec. 31, 2013?”
If you don't know who Rob Ford is, he's the crack smoking mayor of Toronto. Here's a sample. And another sample. And another sample. And of course, you can bet on whether or not he will step down as mayor before December 31st.
“Coral in Kilmarnock claim a black line on the betting slip gave them the right to split Ryan Clark's wager into a 50p treble and a 50p fourfold bet - earning him just £116.”
Poor form here. But a happy ending nonetheless as...........”Punter picks up £11,261 winnings after Daily Record step in and persuade bookie to pay up”
"Apostle Rogers Ziwa of Cream of Life Worship Centre, Kiwanga explains that a biblical source of income is one where you have sown and vested efforts rightly; the investment should be one where calculations are made, not based on assumptions. “Gambling is completely detached from the Bible as it is based on chance without efforts vested,” he said."
Anybody who has made any money from betting knows that there is quite a deal of “efforts vested.” Sure getting luck with a lottery is one thing. But making money from betting involves many hours of hard work.
”Olesia Kuzmychova, 29, was killing time when she placed the tiny stake on an internet slot game. Her luck paid off as she scooped a £238,165 jackpot, which is 1.2million times more than her outlay.”
Ok, sometimes it's easy.
”The research found the number of gambling advertisement spots shown on television was 152,000 in 2006. That had increased to 537,000 by 2008 after the market was liberalised, since when the figure has further increased by around 150 per cent, reaching 1.39 million in 2012.”
Which reminds me, check out our bookmaker bonus offers page.