Betting On ArgieBall: Expect The Unexpected

Sep 18th, 2012 - Posted by EdMalyon in Football

Writer. 23. Mainly DailyMirror & Mirror Football but also Guardian Sport, ESPNFC and Betfair Sports. Surname rhymes with Galleon.

Ever thought about betting on South American football? Today on the blog, Ed Malyon talks about how the unpredictable nature of South American leagues, in particular the Argentine Primera can work in your favour.

BocaJuniorsFans

South American football is renown for being prone to moments of utter lunacy, farce and incredible talent. It is the traditional home of the flawed genius, a place of simply unrivalled passion and while this makes it eminently watchable, its unpredictability can be a problem when it comes to betting on football.

This is no new thing, it has long been the case that South American football is batshit mental, and that any team can beat anyone. But results a couple of weekends ago provided the perfect example in the Argentine Primera division.

San Martin leave Arsenal smartin'

Hapless San Martín de San Juan had lost all five of their games at the start of this season. They were a fairly dreary outfit to watch last season, and only survived relegation in the playoffs when they drew 0-0 with Rosario Central in both legs. The rules state that a level aggregate score sees the sides stay in their respective divisions, so San Martín found themselves facing a second season in the top flight.

Quite how out of the depth they were was emphasised by their dreadful start, and this was only expected to get worse when they played defending champions Arsenal de Sarandí on Saturday night.

As you can probably tell from the tone of this piece, it didn’t quite work out that way. San Martín pummelled their visitors 4-0, and while this was largely due to a first-half red card to Lisandro Lopez – remember the name, he will play for Argentina one day – it is worth remembering that Arsenal were unbeaten and just one point off the top.

Tempted by the Unpredictable

So why do people bet on Argentine football if it’s so unpredictable? Well, quite simply because it also offers better value than most of the major leagues.

It’s a common in niche markets that if you know your stuff you will be able to glean some value from the bookmaker’s odds, and football is no different in these territories. The duality of betting on Argieball being a big winner and a gut-wrenching loser at the same time is a good thing because it encourages you to be cautious.

Many punters get carried away, over-betting proportions of their bankroll as they get increasingly confident in a market before getting stung when the loss comes. The insanity of Argentine football keeps you on your toes, you smile knowingly when you take advantage of a huge price but are kept in check when you get bust on a sure thing.

Betting against the Big Names

The other big advantage in Argentina is the weight of punters that are happy simply to bet on a name. In markets that aren’t supremely popular and floating with cash, smaller amounts can alter the odds as bookmakers attempt to limit liabilities, and simply put, people like backing River Plate and Boca Juniors.

Now this season, this hasn’t been particularly advantageous for anyone that pays a bit more attention to the league, but when River were relegated two years ago, they still began most games as favourites. Likewise, Boca Juniors have put out a second-string on many occasions in 2012 when they were more focussed on continental progression. Their prices continued to be pushed in, and for the more shrewd punter this will always bring the opportunity of profit.

This under watched and underrated league is ripe for profit,but you have to be ready to hop on the roller-coaster of emotions if you want to enjoy the spoils.

Follow Ed on Twitter : @eaamalyon

You can read more of Ed's thoughts at The Mirror