10 Betting Facts for Super Bowl 46
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
Who should you bet on for Super Bowl 46? What are some of the historical Super Bowl betting trends? When will the teams score first? All these questions will attempt to be answered as Andrew brings you 10 (or more) Betting Facts for Super Bowl 46.
Facts - Recent form
The Giants have crashed their way through their last 5 games. They have covered the line in each of them, 3 of which they were underdogs. And they haven't just covered, they've been mocking the betting line, covering the line by a combined 81 points across the 5 games.
Over the last 20 seasons, there have been 6 instances of an underdog coming into the Super Bowl having covered the line in a streak of at least their previous 4 games. The record of those underdogs against the line in the Super Bowl was 4-1-1.
Looking at their last 2 games, teams that have won as underdogs in 2 consecutive playoff games to reach the Super Bowl are 4-0 against the line on the big day.
But what does recent form mean for New England? Well since Tom Brady's rookie season, the Patriots are 40-28-1 against the line following a game in which they failed to cover the line. In other words, Brady rarely has two bad games in a row. In other other words, the Pats rebound.
Facts - Toss of the Coin
A coin-toss fact for anyone with a fetish for betting on events that last less than a few seconds - The team representing the NFC has won the coin-toss the last 14 seasons. Surely that can't continue right? I mean, come on. (Yes, I'm being sarcastic.)
Oh and in case you needed any more persuading - The last AFC team to win the coin-toss? Yes, you guessed it - The Patriots - way back in Super Bowl 31 against Green Bay.
The following coin-toss stat comes with thanks from the National Football Post and it's a pretty good one. Since Tom Brady's season ending ACL injury in 2008, the Patriots have played 65 games. In 28 of those games they won the coin-toss and on each occasion they chose to kick-off.
Which is why the Giants are around odds of 1.50 to receive the ball first on Sunday.
Facts - Favourites, Dogs & Overs & Unders
So here's some breakdowns of each of the 4 combinations Super Bowls have played out with regards to favourites, underdogs & Over/Under results :
Favourites cover with the game going Over - 14 times.
Underdogs cover with the game going Over - 8 times.
Favourites cover with the game going Under - 10 times.
Underdogs cover with the game going Under - 10 times.
Yes, there's been 45 Super Bowls and those numbers only add up to 42. Well, Super Bowl 1 didn't have an Over/Under and there have been 2 Super Bowls where the line result was a push. So there you go, the most common combination has been the favourite covering coupled with the Over.
But here's the real tasty stat - in the last 29 Super Bowls, the combination of favourite coupled with the Under has occurred just 3 times. That's just a strike rate of just over 10%. But however, it occurred recently, twice, in back to back seasons, Super Bowl 40 and Super Bowl 41.
Facts - When will they score?
Ok, so now something for in-play punters - When can we expect the teams to score? I've broken down both teams in terms of points scored and conceded for each qtr of each game this season. Here's what is interesting.
- The Patriots best qtr for scoring was the 2nd, while the 1st qtr was their worst.
- The Giants best qtr for scoring was the 4th, while the 3rd qtr was their worst.
- In terms of defense, both teams shared the 3rd qtr as their best for limiting the opposition.
- Similarly, both teams shared the 4th qtr as their worst for limiting opposition scoring.
So what does this mean? Well it might be that we can expect not much action straight after halftime with both the Pats and Giants defenses being at their best and the Giants offense being at it's worst.
But it might heat up in the 4th with both defenses giving up points and the Giants having their best offensive production in the final qtr.
When will the 1st score of the game be?
A mildly scientific method I applied came to the conclusion that the 1st score will occur with 9.14 remaining in the 1st qtr. How did I come up with that? Don't worry. Some methods are best left unknown.
Facts - Chances of a Blowout
When we take a look at the history of Super Bowls where the line has been between 2.5 and 4 points, we see something striking.
In Super Bowl history their have been 13 such games. That's approximately 29% of all Super Bowls played. In those 13 games, 10 have ended with a margin of at least 10 points. And in 5 of those 10, it was the underdog that ended up winning by the double digit margin.
To go a step further, 7 of those 13 games ended with a winning margin of at least 17 points.
Also in the last 15 Patriots games where they were favoured with the line between 2.5 and 4, the winning margin for either team was at least 10pts in 9 of those 15 games, while for the Giants when underdogs in the same range, the winning margin for either team has been at least 10pts in 8 of their last 15 such matches.
Facts - Considering 2011 Win/Loss records
New England finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, collecting 4 more wins than the Giants who finished 2011 with a modest record of 9-7. Should the Giants win on Sunday they will be the 1st team to win a Super Bowl with a mere 9-7 regular season record.
However, the Patriots combined opponent strength of schedule was a winning pct of just 47.3%, while the Giants had the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the league, a combined winning pct of 55.9%.
Further, when we consider playoff rankings of teams in previous Super Bowls, the results have been interesting. Over the last 15 Super Bowls, the lower ranked team is 12-1-2 against the line. If we consider the last 10 seasons, the lower ranked teams are 8-1 against the line, with the New Orleans v Indianapolis game being the only 1st seed Super Bowl meeting in the last 10 seasons.
Facts - In-Season pay back
The Patriots hosted the Giants back in Week 9 of this season where the Giants prevailed in a 24-20 thriller. But that shouldn't worry anybody prepared to bet on New England.
Because since 2000 when Bill Belichick became coach, when the Patriots have lost to an opponent then played them again later within the same season, they have gone 13-3 against the line in the re-match. An impressive 81% win rate. Yes, Belichick is the master of adjustments and the Patriots have often caught Vegas lines napping when coming up against teams that got the better of them earlier in the season during the Belichick era.
Facts - Going against quality opposition
New England played just 3 teams that ended the season with a win/loss record above 50% - Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. In all 3 games the Patriots failed to cover the line. And they failed large, with a combined line margin of -28 over the 3 games.
Meanwhile, the Giants survived a savage schedule that included New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice. Hell. Oh and they managed to go 8-2 against the line in those 10 games. No small effort.
Facts - Big Overs
The Over/Under line for the game began at 55pts. That tied for the 2nd biggest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The game it tied with? The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl back in 2007/2008. Then the teams combined for just 31 points.
The line has now settled at around 53/54pts. Since 1994 there have been 7 Super Bowl O/U lines above 50 points. In 5 of those the game went Under.
And both teams are coming into this game with very contrasting O/U trends - the Giants have gone Under in 5 of their last 6 games while the Patriots have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 games. Something's got to give.
Oh and for people thinking of betting the 1st qtr Over/Under - The 1st qtr has gone Under in 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. The 1st qtr O/U on Sunday is 10.5pts.
Facts - First to 23?
Obviously the key to winning and to covering the line is to score points. "Yeah, thanks Einstein."
But here's an interesting stat (and most likely a useless one) - And it revolves around the number 23.
When a team scored at least 23 points in the Super Bowl, they are 31-9-2 against the line. When they score less than 23 points, they are 12-34-2.
And in Super Bowls where at least one team scored 23 points, the game has gone Over 21-13.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
Listen to Andrew talk Super Bowl betting on Matt Finnigan's Podcast
And follow Matt on Twitter : @MattFinnigan
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