Let the bettingexpert bloggers show you how to become a more successful sports punter as they deliver the latest analysis, advice and experienced insight.
Mar 16th, 2013
Who will win March Madness in 2013? How have higher seeds performed against lower seeds since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985? Today on the blog Cassini delivers a historical analysis of tournament seedings for the NCAA men's basketball championship beginning next week.
With 349 schools (universities) competing in NCAA Division 1 basketball, it’s hardly surprising that any ranking of the teams is approximate at best.
Most teams play their conference rivals once or twice, and a few ga...
Mar 12th, 2013
Which football statistics are meaningful and which are relatively meaningless when it comes to predicting performance? Today on the blog Cassini takes a look at modern football analytics what statistics can help us in our betting and which won't.
As many of you will know, last week was the occasion of the latest annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference, an event that grows larger each year, as more and more attention and money is invested in sports.
Every day, it seems that there are more...
Feb 19th, 2013
What is Loss Aversion and why is it something you should keep in mind when betting and trading? On the blog today, Cassini offers his thoughts on this peculiar phenomenon and how an awareness of it can help improve your betting returns.
Numerous studies have shown that the pain of losing something is felt more strongly than the joy of gaining something. In economics, this is known as loss aversion, and some studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains.
The evi...
Oct 27th, 2012
With the NBA season almost upon us, today on the blog Cassini delivers part 2 of his betting preview, helping us to find some value opportunities in season 2012/2013.
In-Running Keys
Basketball is a game of momentum, so it pays to look for games where one team gets off to a flier. They seem to be unstoppable. Three pointers are falling, and everything is going right, and the price will drop quite dramatically, but time and time again you will see the struggling team take a time-out, re-group...
Oct 27th, 2012
How can you be successful betting on the NBA this season? With the new season just days away, today on the blog Cassino takes a look at the 2012/2013 NBA season and offers some pointers for profitable betting.
The 2012-13 NBA season gets underway on 30th October with opening night featuring three games, the highlight of which is the marquee match-up between the reigning champions Miami Heat, and the storied Boston Celtics - winners of more NBA Championships than any other franchise.
The NBA ...
Sep 24th, 2012
Who will win the 2012 U.S Presidential election? Should you bet on Obama or Romney, the Democrats or the Republicans? Today on the blog, Cassini shares his insights on how to the betting market on the upcoming Presidential decider.
The quadrennial US Presidential Election, and the investing opportunities that go along with that, is just a few weeks away.
For those unfamiliar with presidential elections, the United States has an Electoral College system which means that the President is not d...
Sep 17th, 2012
With the 2012 Ryder Cup set to tee off in just a couple of weeks time, today on the blog Cassini offers us some statistics and strategies to keep in mind this year as the best golfers of the United Stats face the best of Europe.
The biennial Ryder Cup is fast approaching, with the competition this year taking place between Friday September 28th and Sunday September 30th. This is the 39th Ryder Cup, a competition first played in 1927 and named after Englishman Samuel Ryder who donated the cup....
Sep 11th, 2012
How do we calculate probabilities for betting on football games? Today on the blog Cassini delivers part 2 of his series on the application of Poisson distribution.
Zeroing In
The intricacies of the Poisson distribution need not be fully understood for you to make use of it, because Microsoft’s Excel has a built-in Poisson function. Before we look at Poisson in action, it is important to know that several studies have found that the probability of draws is underestimated by Poisson.
T...
Sep 5th, 2012
How should you bet on the NFL this season? With the new season just hours away, today on the blog Cassini gives us some valuable pointers for how to succeed betting the NFL in 2012.
After four weeks of meaningless pre-season ‘exhibition’ matches, the NFL Season gets underway for real on Wednesday, September 5th when reigning champions New York Giants begin the defence of their title at home to the Dallas Cowboys.
For Beginners
The National Football League is comprised of two Con...
Sep 3rd, 2012
How do we calculate the probability of outcomes for a football match? Today on the blog, Cassini adds to his series on Elo ratings for football with part 1 on how to apply a Poisson calculation to generate probabilities.
In the conclusion of my
series on Elo ratings, I mentioned how the ‘modified result’ can be used as the input to a Poisson calculation, the output from which can then in turn be used to calculate the probability of any result.
Part Four of Elo Ratings For...
Aug 15th, 2012
How do promoted clubs perform once they reach the top flight? And how to we assess their potential? On the blog today Cassini takes a look at promoted clubs and how we can adjust our Elo ratings to predict their form in the new season.
For those of us who maintain ratings for teams in various leagues around the world, the end of every season sees teams relegated and teams promoted. For football, I maintain Elo based ratings for five of the top leagues in Europe – namely in England, Fran...
Aug 10th, 2012
Today Cassini concludes his series on how to apply Elo ratings to football. In part four, he looks at corner kicks and how we can apply our ratings to improve our football betting.
Dangerous Corner
I concluded
Part Three with a discussion about what data can or should be included when adjusting a team's Elo ratings. It might seem logical and reasonable to include corner kicks, but perhaps surprisingly, the evidence shows that there is essentially no correlation between the number of corn...
Aug 8th, 2012
In part three of his series on applying Elo Ratings to football, Cassini takes us further, showing us how applying deeper data such as shots on goal can provide us with more accurate ratings.
In
Part Two, I looked at one way in which Elo ratings could be improved by measuring the strength of a win based on winning margin. However, the low scoring nature of football means that the match result often does not reflect the performance of the teams.
We have all seen games where one team has d...
Aug 6th, 2012
In
part one, Cassini showed us how to apply basic Elo ratings to football. Today he takes us further, looking at how to incorporate home field advantage and the margin of victory to our football ratings.
In
Part One we explained the basic premise of Elo ratings, and illustrated how they are applied. Part two will offer some suggestions on how the principles of Elo can be enhanced to make our ratings more useful. It is important to understand that these are only suggestions. There are ...
Aug 3rd, 2012
You may have heard of Elo Ratings. But what are they exactly? And how can we apply them to assess the performance of football teams? Today on the blog Cassini delivers part one of his series on how we can adapt Elo Ratings to football and improve our betting.
Introduction
Often incorrectly written as ELO, Elo ratings actually take their name from the inventor, Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-born American physics professor and Chess player who invented the ratings method as a way of comparing the ski...
Mar 16th, 2013
by Cassini
Mar 12th, 2013
Feb 19th, 2013
Oct 27th, 2012
Oct 27th, 2012
Sep 24th, 2012
Sep 17th, 2012
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Aug 15th, 2012
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