Champions League 2010/2011 Season Ending Betting Analysis
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Email: andrew at bettingexpert.com
Andrew has a look at where the betting value was this season in the Champions League. Which situations were the most profitable? Home? Away? Win? Loss? Andrew cuts up the odds and lets you know.
With Champions League edition 2010/2011 in the books, it's a good opportunity to have a look at which way the odds fell this season. We'll take a look from a number of angles, from a basic odds breakdown to how clubs returning to the Champions League in 2010 performed against the new comers. We'll look at how the Top 3 Ranked UEFA Leagues performed against the odds when playing against the other European leagues, and finally, we'll look at which clubs were the ones to bet on and bet against in 2010/2011.
If you're like me and believe that value is usually with the ugly underdog, you weren't in for a pleasant Champions League campaign this season. It was the season of the slim priced favourites. Backing favourites at home at even stakes would have seen you clear an almost 10% return, with 8.97 units of profit. The situation that was particularly profitable was betting home favourites below 1.50, where in 30 games you would have cleared over 6 units of profit at even stakes.
Even away favourites were able to give some value, especially when priced above 2.00. In 16 games in that situation you would have claimed a profit of over 2 units, for a handy return of 6.7%. Meanwhile, backing favourites all season would have seen you come away with 11.19 units of profit, for a return of just over 9% at even stakes.
Obviously this means it wasn't a season for underdogs, particularly at home. Backing home dogs this season would have seen you fall behind the mark by over 10 units in 33 games.
When away from home however, it was a different story for underdogs. Underdogs on the road valued between 2.85 and 7.00 were incredibly profitable. In the 54 games in that situation, backing those clubs at even stakes would have seen you collect a very healthy 26.49 units of profit, a return of 49%. However, if you continued your love for away underdogs beyond the value mark of 7.00, you were hammered for the full price of your 37 units in that situation.
Returning Clubs vs Non-Returning Clubs
Lets now look at how clubs returning to the Champions League for a consecutive year performed against clubs who were either new to the league or had been away for a year or more.
As you'd expect with hot priced favourites performing so well, returning clubs dominated against their inexperienced opponents. Returning clubs returned over 5 units of profit at home against non-returning clubs, for a healthy return of 15.2%, while on the road they managed to collect just over 3 units of profit for a return of 9.5%. Backing each returning club when facing non-returning opposition would have seen you claim over 8 units to the good side of the ledger and a return of 12.3%.
Top 3 Leagues vs Others
Let's then look at how the top 3 UEFA ranked leagues performed against the rest of the opposition.
Teams from the Top 3 Leagues performed very well at home against the odds this season. Had you backed each club from the English Premier League, Spanish Primera and the Italian Serie A at home this Champions League campaign, you would have collected over 3 units of profit in 33 games for a return of almost 10%.
Away from home, the story was a little different. We see that in this situation, the draw was very good value, giving us 4.68 units of profit for a return of 14.2%.
As we can see it was a hideous year for clubs outside of the Top 3 leagues. Backing these clubs would have seen you go down over 20 units in 66 games against Top 3 clubs.
Best Home Team to Back to Win
Obviously Schalke surprised a lot of people with their run deep into the tournament. Backing them to win in each of their home contests this season would have seen you collect almost 6 units of profit in 6 games. Arsenal were in 2nd place with over 4 units in home profit from their 4 home games, while Braga were 3rd with over 3 units in 3 home contests.
Best Away Team to Back to Win
United put together a solid road campaign in 2010/2011. Backing them to win at even stakes in each of their 6 away contests this season would have seen you gather almost 7 units in profit. Spartak were in 2nd place with a very healthy 5.85 profit in away games and Schalke again presenting well in 3rd with 5.58 units of profit from their 6 games.
Best Home Team to Back Against
It wasn’t a good campaign against the odds for any of the Italian clubs. Roma finished 1st for the best to team to bet against at home this season, giving up over 6 units of profit to their the travelling opposition in their 4 games. In 2nd were AC Milan with just over 6 units of profit to opposition clubs when at home and completing the trio were Inter with 4.41 units of profit to home opposition from their 5 games.
Best Away Team to Back Against
It was only 3 games, but Benfica gave up almost 7 units of profit to home teams this season. Arsenal were in 2nd place surrendering 4.69 units of profit to opposition home clubs in their 4 road meetings, while Inter featured again, giving up almost 3 units in their 5 games away in 2010/2011.
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Thanks for your comment profitt. For most of my odds analysis I take average odds and then mark them up to around 92% value for W, D and L. Hope that makes sense
Hi Andrew, once again interesting analysis. I have one question. Did you take into consideration average odds, best possible odds or odds from specific bookmaker?