Cheltenham 2013: A Bookie's Post Mortem
Mar 21st, 2013 - Posted by geoffbanks in Betting Theory, Horse Racing
UK's Leading Independent Bookmaker. We pay our tax and Levy to British Racing. And no begging a proper bet here! Private Client Wagering at it's best.
How did bookmakers fare at this year's Cheltenham Festival? Who came out on top - the punters or the layers? Today on the blog one of the UK's leading independent bookmakers Geoff Banks shares a layer's perspective of this year's Cheltenham Festival.
Bankers. We used to count the banker material in the car with my Dad on the way down to Cheltenham. It was our benchmark to success at the meeting. And that was the word - success, because losing at the Festival was a non runner for Bookies such as John Banks.
The environment has changed. I don’t use betting exchanges to price up my book, I value opinion over trading between Bots and the numpties. I’m very much in the minority. Modern day Bookmakers can’t see past exchanges, trading every penny they take, offering a very poor service to the customer, which starts with uniformity of odds. We have to thank Rob Hughes, casting vote chairman of the Levy Board for introducing exchanges to rings – now decimated. Bookies have become their own worst enemy.
Me? I expect to win by taking the aggressive line. No, I didn’t offer ten pound bets on Sprinter Sacre at Evens, but then I’m not running a casino. I don’t study a yard of form pre-festival. It clouds my plans. If I sat up all night studying form, I’d surely end up with the same book of hotpots as the punters do. Dynaste, Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Bobs Worth and Simonsig. My job is to get them beat.
The Festival Begins
Tuesday rolls in, starting well for the Books, with the hard pulling My Tent Or Yours looking assured for victory, outbattled by Champagne Fever. Last year we started poorly and never looked back. This year was more muddled. Wins for Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega placed the straight bat layers behind the 8 ball. We lost - solidly. The bright spot? Handicaps. Result after result all week penned the punters back.
Wednesday, gloomy lot of Bookies clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the first, with Back In Front rallying. Groans and queues around the Centaur for payouts. I employ three people to just pay out the cash, which by nature is more time consuming than accepting a bet – it wasn’t enough! The office rang – running up bets onto Irish wonderhorse Pont Alexandre in the next. This from multiple bets onto Back In Focus and yesterdays ‘heroes’. How much do we have it for I ask? ‘Don’t ask’, says my senior trader, we’re behind the sofa in here. Talking horse - not wonderhorse. And it kicks off panic with the punters. They barely scrape a return in another race for two days. Who cares about Sprinter Sacre? Not the Bookies, they ignore him. Ooh aaah, well done, move on.
Round after round to the Bookies continued through Thursday. Had you asked me to write down my own set of results, I couldn’t have penned a better set of results. It was embarrassing - well almost embarrassing. Thursday night we celebrated, care of the Richard Power firm in Cheltenham. Smiles all round and stories of derring do and how what looked on paper a punters festival, had turned so much to us. We were well in front.
A Tough Final Day
Friday. Hmmm. I remember thinking I would coast round, secure that even if the results were similar to Tuesday, we couldn’t finish behind on the meeting now. That’s not to say I intended backing off and hogging the pot. Oh No! Not my way at all. I’m too daft to do that..Punters on the ropes and down. I was going to put my heel gently on their necks. Hard to remember a thought proven more wrong, as result after calamitous result ensued. The worst of which for me was Salsify in the Foxhunters. Backed in from 9/2 long term to 2/1. It was a catastrophe. It’s fair to say I was totally stunned at the manner of his victory. Iiterally speechless at the turn of events. And the noise in the Centaur was unbelievable! It didn’t surprise me to watch McCoy boot home the last favourite home. I was numb. The punters deserved their day.
How much did the Festival cost the firms? Well, my firm lost double on Friday what it had reaped on Wednesday and Thursday. Those are traditionally quieter betting days. I’m not crying, I have a track record of winning long term. Overall, the Cheltenham bash cost the Bookies big time. More with the large offshore concerns, who outdid each other with one moronic offer after another. These days they seem to treat the whole event as an opportunity to pad their online products with lovely names and addresses. And the dimmies queue up to sign up as if it’s Christmas.
Concluding Remarks
Is that a fair comment? I believe so, because every tenner laid at evens on Sprintre Sacre usually gets ploughed into something else. I mean who deposits a tenner and goes through the rigmarole of withdrawing it the next day? It’s ploughed into some other product and Bobs your uncle.
Whilst everyone from the BHA downward is clapping themselves on the back at producing another showcase event – and it was, I offer a word of caution. I listened to the great Micky Fitzgerald on the excellent Morning Line, a show I’ve been lucky to participate in, eulogising about his former boss producing the horse in tip top condition to wrest the big prize of the Gold Cup. And I congratulate my friend Nicky for his skills. However, the last time I saw the great Bobs in action was November. He wasn’t the only one of course. A number of top jumping stars rested from December onwards.
Fine, the weather was poor in January, but there were still opportunities to be had, rejected by stable stars with owners rich enough to take the gamble and lie low for months. In the meantime viewers on telly, and worse attendees on course endured uncompetitive events and ‘match races’ for months. There have been 23 grade one events this season. 16 won by the favourite, and 6 by the second favourites. It highlights the predictable nature of jump racing these days, and hardly pads the Levy.
It’s not good enough in my view. I don’t care who wins the Gold Cup, it’s a great institution, and whatever lifts the little cup, Dessie or Nortons Coin, is going to be big news. Micky Fitz was right to congratulate the great one, but he forgets the intervening months have become drab and boring. Might I remind those looking in - Desert Orchid ran 8 or 9 times a year. He was an athlete and so are today’s horses. It disproves the current lame excuse given for horses languishing in their boxes, that they’re not ‘capable’ of winning top races if they race in February.
And if you’re Newbury or Kempton? You’re doing the industry no favours by permitting quiet gallops for top stars after racing. Ask Fontwell who provided 50 grand for a five runner race how they felt at the lack of ambition? Simonsig? Beatable. Dynaste beaten. Where was the inventiveness of connections then? Small fields for Championship races at the Festival? An alarming development for Racing. As for Quevega? Group class in a seller, just leaves me cold. There’s only one horse who cannot be bested these days. One.
Let them race.
Follow Geoff on Twitter: @geoffbanksbet
And visit GeoffBanks.com
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Thanks Stephen. I was just confused between betting and being a bookmarker, you know...
People like him make betting difficult, I preffer to bet against statisticians who run numbers and get the "right" lines for a game. They make it easier!
Thanks for the link to the other article too, Stephen. Both have been an interesting read, it is always nice to hear from the "other side". I remember about one or two more articles that I read here on the BE blog that were on this same line.
Crator...You might enjoy reading this article to find out more about Geoff...
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/talking-betting-with-geoff-banks
Geoff bets as a bookmaker under his own name at all the big courses in the South of England. He is one of the "old enemy" that all us punters do battle with!...I thought it was refreshing to read that the bookmaker doesn't always win, even at a meeting as competitive as Cheltenham!
You should probably include a description of his job at the start... I'm still confused, is he working on a bookmarker or is he on the other side, betting?
Or both? Your comment just made it more confusing Stephen haha
Geoff is one of the few truly independents left...betting with his own money and standing horses for fortunes when the business is there and at the right prices. He is not a robot dictated to by the betting exchanges, and his presence in the betting rings of today is a reminder of how things used to be when cash was king and all the action took place at the track!
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response from Nigel Spencer from Spreadex
Allowing
hedging on the exchanges should never have been sanctioned.
Other
solutions/suggestions.
"Policed"
by R.D.T./Excel etc. including the min. stake restriction in a
program.
b)
Revive the dead practice of hedging with another bookmaker.Have bets of <
£100 back in the ring.
a)Discuss
free bet vouchers perhaps issued by the racecourses on our behalf at
turnstiles/bars/restaurants.
b)In
my experience >95% of the public do not understand anything about
betting(inc. prices) and need educating.
A
Bookmaker v Tote comparison and free bet vouchers should be included.
c)Brighten
up/Smarten up the ring.Make it a place that is worth a visit.
d)Smarten
up the bookmakers and staff.
One
of the Gam. Comm. remits is to protect vulnerable people, but the
G.C. incompetence has allowed the betting public to be
financially raped by certain unscrupulous and ruthless bookmakers.
b)
Offer industry approved prices.
What
do the racecourses get from the Tote/ from Tote vouchers and could we
compete thus getting equal treatment?
WHY?......
Are
the Tote allowed to put up outside joints and have floating staff with handheld
bet dispensers?
Are
the public allowed to use mobile devices in the betting rings?Never used to be,
so what has changed?