How do Champions League fixtures impact domestic form?

Twitter: @AndrewBexpert

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

How does a midweek Champions League fixture impact upon a club's next domestic contest? Which leagues have performed better? Which situations have been more profitable? Today, Andrew breaks down the last 5 seasons of odds and results to find out.

Overall133

Some analysis I have been meaning to do for a while, and that my friend @dansportzblog reminded me of a couple of weeks ago, was to see how a midweek Champions League matchup impacts upon a club's next domestic fixture.

Do they underperform in comparison to the odds? Do we see more drawn results? And what about goal totals when teams come off a midweek contest in Europe?

All these questions and more got scratching at my curiosity, so I decided to look back into the last 5 seasons of results, from 2006-2007 to 2010-2011, for Champions League clubs competing in the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and the Bundesliga. In particular, I looked at domestic matches played by the competing clubs within a week of their Champions League fixture.

We will be analysing win, draw and loss profitability for these clubs by betting at 'even stakes' (one unit on each possible outcome), assessing each outcome - win, draw or loss - by their percentage return of overall investment using match odds standardised to typical bookmaker commission of 4.5% (i.e 'even' money at odds of 1.91). In this analysis we will consider any outcome performing above -4.5% as performing above 'standard bookmaker commission'.

So, here's what I found.

League by league

So the first thing I did was look at how clubs from each of the four leagues have performed in composite when backing up from a midweek Champions League fixture. The table below shows how Champions League clubs in each league performed in terms of win-draw-loss profitability at 'even stakes' since the 2006-2007 seasons in domestic matches following Champions League commitments.

Win % Return Draw % Return Loss % Return Over 2.5 goals occurrence
Premier League 0.49% -0.44% -33.71% 48.78%
Bundesliga -6.96% 1.96% -1.61% 60.71%
La Liga -3.55% -21.75% -12.53% 62.05%
Serie A 7.30% -11.89% -35.27% 45.95%
Total -0.30% -8.30% -22.81% 53.72%

The first thing we should note is the striking form of clubs returning from Champions League commitments. Overall, you might have expected them to perhaps have a down performance and see a profitable edge to their domestic opposition.

But what we see is that in all but one league, the Bundesliga, clubs returning from Champions League fixtures have performed above standard bookmaker commission of -4.5%, with both the Premier League and Serie A clubs returning an 'even stakes' profit over the last 5 seasons.

Similarly we see that the domestic opposition of returning Champions League clubs have performed well under oddsmaker expectations in each league except the Bundesliga.

When we look at goal totals, we see that the over 2.5 goals occurrence of almost 54% is about what we might expect for any average football match across Europe. But we do see a distinct difference between the Bundesliga and La Liga when compared with the Premier League and Serie A, in matches following Champions League encounters.

After different results

So let's now take a look at how clubs performed following the full range of results - win, draw or loss. The table below shows the profitability at 'even stakes' of clubs in our four leagues of study following such results in the Champions League.

Win % Return Draw % Return Loss % Return Over 2.5 goals occurrence
After a CL win 1.60% -9.87% -27.12% 50.00%
After a CL draw 0.63% 7.60% -30.19% 55.63%
After a CL loss -4.73% -20.30% -7.7% 58.79%

We can see that in general, Champions League form has followed on to the following domestic contest across the four leagues.

When clubs have come off a Champions League victory, they have gone on to return a profit of 1.60% at 'even stakes' in their next domestic match, with the profitability of their domestic opposition a woeful -27.12%.

Similarly, when clubs have come off a Champions League draw, the draw profitability at 'even stakes' in their next domestic contest is a very handsome profit of 7.60%, with their win profitability also on the good side of zero.

When clubs have come off a Champions League loss, the profitability for the draw in their next domestic encounter is quite striking, returning a loss of over 20% at 'even stakes' the last 5 seasons. And while the profitability of their opposition is still below standard bookmaker commission, it is comfortably the best result for domestic opposition clubs of the three categories.

When we consider goal totals, it is interesting to see that the Over 2.5 goals occurrence in matches where a Champions League clubs have come off a win is just on 50%, despite the generous win profitability in this category. On the other hand, when clubs have come off a Champions League loss, we see an Over 2.5 goals occurrence of just under 59%, which corresponds with the poor return for drawn results in this same category.

Location location location

So let's now turn to see how Champions League clubs in our four leagues have performed when we split the results dependant upon location of the Champions League fixture and the location of the next domestic contest.

Win % Return Draw % Return Loss % Return Over 2.5 goals occurrence
Away after away CL match -0.48% -14.35% -10.27% 57.82%
Away after home CL match -5.17% 1.39% -23.11% 43.71%
Home after away CL match 3.27% -9.58% -27.03% 54.55%
Home after home CL match 1.82% -11.09% -28.91% 58.79%

The first thing we see is that when clubs have come off a Champions League match and are playing at home in their following domestic matchup, they have performed very well against oddsmakers expectations. Interestingly, we see that when clubs have come off an away Champions League fixture and play at home, they have returned a superior 'even stakes' profit of over 3%, than when coming off a home Champions League match, where they have returned a profit of over 1%.

We see something similar when we also consider clubs playing away after a Champions League encounter. While in both examples they have returned a loss in terms of win profitability, when clubs have come off an away Champions League match, they have performed better against the odds with a win profitability of -0.48%, than when they have come off a home Champions League match where they have generated a win return of -5.17%.

Why?

Well the answer I assume is that the oddsmakers have given overly generous odds for clubs coming off an away Champions League commitment than a home one, with the general public betting with the belief that such clubs are more likely for a let down game following their travels.

But as we can see, such clubs have performed far better than we could be led to believe by the oddsmakers.

Looking at goal totals, we see a striking result in matches where a Champions League club from one of our four leagues of study, has come off a home Champions League match and is playing away in their next domestic matchup. In these situations, the Over 2.5 goal occurrence has been just under 44%, while each other category has been well above 50%.

The regulars

Let's now breakdown club performances from our four leagues of study a little more. Here we will be looking at different types of clubs - Champions League regulars and The Others. In the regulars group I have included the following clubs : AC Milan, Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester United and Real Madrid.

Win % Return Draw % Return Loss % Return Over 2.5 goals occurrence
CL "regulars" 1.30% -3.35% -33.79% 51.86%
CL "others" -3.73% -18.91% 0.50% 57.71%

The results here are quite striking, especially when we consider the profitability of domestic opposition clubs. When "regulars" have returned from Champions League duties, their opposition profitability is an awful -33.79% at 'even stakes', while when non-regular Champions League clubs from our four leagues of study return, their opposition have returned a profit of 0.50% at even stakes.

Considering goal totals, we can see that domestic matches involving "other" clubs from our four leagues of study, have been higher than those of Champions League "regulars", with an Over 2.5 goal occurrence of almost 58% compared to just under 52%.

So what did we learn?

Like any trend analysis, we want to be careful not to just following them blindly as we look forward. But at the same time, such analysis can provide a valuable insight as part of your overall betting analysis for any upcoming match.

Overall we can see that in the past, there may have been an over-estimation by oddsmakers, or at least by the general betting public of the impact of mid-week Champions League fixtures on clubs in the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A. We have seen in this analysis that in certain situations, clubs have performed very well in comparison to odds expactations, even returning generous profits at 'even stakes' despite their extra commitments away from their domestic competitions. Similarly, the profitability of their domestic opposition in matches following Champions League commitments have been in some cases, extremely poor.

 

 

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

 

 

 

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