Dortmund v Real Madrid: What Are The Chances?
Champions League semi-final action continues this Wednesday night as Real Madrid travel to Dortmund in what will be the third meeting between the clubs this season. Today on the blog German bettingexpert blog editor Joachim delivers his statistical analysis of the Dortmund v Real Madrid matchup.
The German-Spanish fiesta goes into round 2 on Wednesday, as Borussia Dortmund host Real Madrid...again. It's a fixture both teams are familiar with having met twice in the group stage, in which Dortmund actually slighted bested the Spanish side.
Who Will Advance? How The Bookies See It
These numbers are based on the average odds offered by the bookmakers. However, I have omitted the overround, as we would be looking at more than a 100% total market otherwise. What is an overround and how do you convert bookies' odds into probabilities? That is something we explain in our betting academy.
Real Madrid are currently best priced at odds of 2.70 with Bet365 to win the opening league at Dortmund while the home club are on offer at odds of 2.70 also with Bet365. If you're keen on the draw, Stan James offer odds of 3.60.
So what about the stats?
Dortmund – Real: Second best is not the end of the season
Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have much in common this season. Both teams reserve their best football for the Champions League, while domestically they occupy 2nd place, with no shot at the title at any stage of the season. And who did they have to surrender their respective championships to, and quite early at that? Of course, FC Bayern and FC Barcelona, the two clubs playing the other semifinal.
The reason for this is simple: both teams have lacked consistency this season in their national leagues. Both Dortmund (67.8% of available points taken) and Real (74%) performed above average, but also not even close to the level of their national rivals - Bayern in comparison took an unbelievable 90% of all available points this season, while Barcelona is very close to that mark. So while there's nothing Dortmund and Real can do on that front, they still have high hopes to be crowned the European champions.
Dortmund – Real: Average ball possession in their group stage matches
The teams have already faced each other in the group stage. Both were great matches with plenty of speed shown from both sides. Looking at the average ball possession of both matches yields a bit of a surprise, as Dortmund didn't see the ball that much - but when they did, they made it count. This statistic reflects the chosen tactic of both coaches, Mourinho wanted control of the ball whereas Klopp opted for a solid defense and quick counter attacks, often utilizing the wing players. Will the semifinal look similar?
Dortmund – Real: Combined stats of the group stage meetings
These statistics are excellent proof for the hypothesis that football is more than just ball possession and plenty of shots on goal. Over the course of the two group stage matches Real dominated both these statistics handily, but the advantage already shrinks siginificantly when we take a look at the shots on goal which actually made it on target. In terms of goals Mourinhos men actually even fell short a little in comparison to Dortmund.
What Borussia Dortmund managed to do in those two matches was really sensational, especially in terms of efficiency: 43.5 % of all shots on target found their way into the back of the net, whereas Madrid could only score on every fourth attempt on target. Dortmund may struggle a bit with consistency in the Bundesliga this season, but when it counts in the Champions League they bring it. Fun fact: Of the 4 semi-finalists Dortmund is the only unbeaten team left in the competition.
Dortmund – Real: Offense on fire
If you take a look at all the offense statistics of both clubs of this Champions League season, you can immediately see the high level of offensive quality. It's really hard to find any better. Real fires off 20 shots on goal per match, 37.5 % of which are on target. 30.7 % of those shots make their way into the back of the net, making Real Madrid the highest scoring team of the competition (23 goals total). Ronaldo has of course a huge part in that, having scored 11 himself. Not too shabby.
Dortmund is sporting similar numbers, but can't quite keep up: Dortmund scores 1.9 goals per match, for which they need an average of 6.9 shots on target per match - meaning 27.5% of these attempts result in a goal. While Dortmund don't have an outrageous amount of shots on goal (15.2), it is notable that about half of them force the keeper to make some sort of save. In this regard Dortmund is the superior side to Real Madrid. Best goalscorer for Borussia Dortmund is Robert Lewandowski, who scored 9 of Dortmund's 19 Champions League goals.
Dortmund – Real: Defense wins the tournament?
Real's biggest problem is defense. Mourinho's squad will have to improve in this area, if they want to claim the title. On average Real concedes 1.4 goals per Champions League match, which is the highest amount of any of the semi-finalists. Almost 30% of shots against on target actually end up in the back of their net, not a statistic to be proud of. In fact there was only one Champions League match in which Real managed a shutout against their opponents, in their first leg quarter final victory against Galatasaray (3-0). Despite his past exploits as a coach, Mourinho's side plays a very offensive type of football, as you can see in these numbers. Their defensive problems could be lethal against Dortmund however, since Borussia does have the skillset to capitalize on this.
Dortmund's defense looks much better on the other hand, in terms of goals against they are actually the best of the four semi-finalists. With only 0.9 goals against per match they look solid at the back. 4.2 shots per match find their way on target against Dortmund, which also happens to make Weidenfeller the best keeper of the remaining teams in the competition - he only concedes 21.4% of those shots against that are on target. And there's more good news for Dortmund, Hummels will make his return, further stabilizing Dortmund's defense.
This match-up could be a very exciting duel as well, possibly with many scoring opportunities for both sides. Both teams know how to score, and while Real Madrid does have more firepower, Dortmund is better at defending, which can make for an interesting mixture. It will be interesting to see how Borussia Dortmund fares against the favorites from Spain. They do have a shot, something they already proved in the group stage.
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