Euro 2012 - Germany 4 Greece 2 - The Betting Charts
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
As the Euro 2012 quarter-finals continue, today Andrew takes a look at how the odds shaped during Germany's win over Greece as they now advance to the semi-finals.
The second quarter final of Euro 2012 is done and dusted as a clinical Germany see off a mild 2nd half fright from tournament upstarts Greece to advance to the semi-finals to meet either England or Italy. Let's take a look at the in-play betting odds from Betfair as they match progressed.
1st Half : Germany 1 - Greece 0
The chart below shows us the implied probability of the odds for each outcome as the first 45 minutes evolved. (By implied probability we mean the chance represented by the odds on offer. i.e Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance of that outcome occurring.)
We can see that Germany entered the match as tight favourites at odds of 1.35 (74.1%) to get the job done within the 90 minutes. Counting Euro 2012 and the previous 3 tournaments, this was the shortest price that any knock-out stage team has been. Greece came in as rank outsiders at 12.00 (8.3%) while the Draw was slated at 5.40 (18.5%).
We can see that little happened to push punters off the opening price for pretty much the entire first 39 minutes. At that point Germany were trading at 1.39 (71.9%). It was then that the Germans opened their account as Philip Lahm scored.
Up 1-0 approaching the halftime break, the Germans price would be clipped into 1.11 (90.9%) and as the halftime whistle blew, Germany were trading at 1.09 to win, while Greece were out to as much as 70.00, while the Draw held at 13.00.
2nd Half : Germany 4 - Greece 2
Germany held at their halftime 1.09 price pretty much until the unexpected happened and Greece scored through Georgios Samaras. This saw Germany's price bloom to the 1.60 range (62.5%) while the Draw came into odds of 3.30 (30.3%).
Punters had only moments to consider Germany's new price as 6 minutes later Sami Khedira scored to give the German's a 2-1 lead. Again the German's were cut to 1.08 (92.6%) while Greece blew out to inexcess of 100.00.
Then when Miroslav Klose scored in the 68th minute, betting was all but closed as the Germans would go on to record a 4-2 victory.
Tomorrow we will chart the 3rd quarter final of Euro 2012 as pre-tournament favourites Spain come into their quarter-final appointment with France at odds of 1.81 to complete their task within the 90 minutes.
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