Euro 2012 - Italy 0 England 0 (4-2) - The Betting Charts

Jun 25th, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football, Euro 2012

bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

The Euro 2012 quarterfinals end with a tense night in Kiev as a dominant Italy defeat England on penalties to advance to a semifinal with Germany. Today on the blog, Andrew takes a look at how the odds shaped as a nail biting evening transpired.

ItalyEnglandFlags

The knockout stage of Euro 2012 finally experienced its first penalty shootout as an Italian team that dominated the bulk of play and promise, managed to eventually book a semifinal appointment with Germany on Thursday. Let's take a look then at how the odds shaped as the night developed.

Fulltime : Italy 0 - England 0

The chart below shows us the implied probability of the odds for each outcome as the full 90 minutes of regulation time evolved. (By implied probability we mean the chance represented by the odds on offer. i.e Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance of that outcome occurring.)

EnglandItalyH1

The oddsmakers found it difficult to split the result in pre-match betting. England opened at odds of 2.98 (33.6%), while both the Draw and an Italian win within the 90 minutes could be bought at odds of 3.00 (33.3%).

After an open flurrey of promising attack, England shortened to as much as 2.64 (37.9%) entering the 19th minute, with Italy drifting out to 3.40 (29.4%). From that point on, the market balanced with Italy heading into the half at odds of 3.30 (30.3%), while England were posted at 3.40 (29.4%) and the Draw firming at 2.44 (41.0%).

And the Draw would continue to firm steadily throughout the second half, with Italy only slightly the preferred of the two teams to force a fulltime result.

Extra Time : Italy 0 - England 0

As we entered extra-time, Italy were posted at odds of 1.89 (52.9%) to win the match in either the extra-time period or on penalities while England were attracting backers at 2.10 (47.6%)

These odds displayed little variation throughout the extra-time period as the teams seemed destined for penalties.

Penalty Shootout : Italy 4 - England 2

And so it would come down to penalties. The chart below shows how the odds shifted following each penalty kick.

EnglandItalyP1

We can see that punters considered the outcome as a mere coin-toss with both trading at pretty much even money heading into the first penalty. When Balotelli scored Italy were wound into odds of 1.76 (56.8%) to win the shootout.

Stephen Gerrard would respond for England and bring the market back to a 50-50 proposition.

When Montolivo missed the next Italian penalty, England were tightened to odds of 1.46 (68.5%) and when Rooney converted the following penalty kick, the Italians were out to a price of 4.10 (24.4%) to mount a comeback.

Enter Andrea Pirlo. His converted kick would bring Italy back to odds of 3.40 (29.4%) and when Young missed the next English penalty, we were back to an even money market.

Nocerino would push through his penalty kick bringing Italy into a price of 1.70 (58.8%) to advance. When Cole missed the second consecutive English penalty kick, the Italians were clipped to a price of 1.14 (87.7%).

It came down to single moment for Alessandro Diamanti. He would make no mistake and send Italy through to a semi-final meeting with Germany, while England were once again left to suffer the torment of a major tournament exit on penalties.

Coming up...

And so that concludes the Euro 2012 quarter-finals. We move to the semi-finals starting Wednesday when Portugal will meet Spain, while on Thursday Germany will take on Italy.

You must be logged in to post a comment! Sign up + or log in in the top right corner.

Interesting read guys. Thanks for the link. Cheers.

Andrew_Brocker

27.06.2012, 19:07 CET

Hi Andrew - incredibly detailed post on England vs Italy (wish we could understand half of it!!). Thought you might be interested in this - we did some research on domestic transfer value versus international squad progress through the Euro's. At the quarter final stage our predictions were 87.5% accurate (only Russia let us down) and at the SF stage we were 75% accurate (sadly England let us down). You can read more about the research we did here http://bit.ly/MqNHFU PS you data is MUCH more detailed than ours!!! :)