Euro 2012 - Knock-Out Stage Preview
Jun 21st, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football, Euro 2012
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
The knock-out stage for Euro 2012 has arrived. Prior to the quarterfinals kicking off, Andrew takes a look at each of the 8 teams who will be looking to advance.
The final 8 for Euro 2012 have been determined. With the quarter-finals kicking off tonight, let's take a look at how each of the finalists have performed throughout the group stage.
The chart below shows how the odds to win Euro 2012 have developed for each of the remaining teams as the group stage progressed. The odds are displayed as their implied probability. i.e The chances of that team winning the tournament based on their odds.
| Euro 2012 Group Stage Performance | W-D-L Record | Win Profitability | Over 2.5 goals profitability | Under 2.5 goals profitability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2-1-0 | -0.29 | -1.27 | +0.78 |
| Germany | 3-0-0 | +3.13 | +0.67 | -1.19 |
| Portugal | 2-0-1 | +1.54 | +0.78 | -1.19 |
| England | 2-1-0 | +1.31 | -0.71 | +0.22 |
| Italy | 1-2-0 | -1.61 | -3.00 | +2.28 |
| France | 1-1-1 | -0.94 | -3.00 | +1.83 |
| Czech Republic | 2-0-1 | +2.53 | +1.99 | -1.18 |
| Greece | 1-1-1 | +2.04 | -0.67 | +0.29 |
Spain
As the graph above shows, the defending champions began the tournament as one of two firm favourites. At odds in the range of 3.90 (25.6%) as the tournament kicked off, Spain has now been backed into odds of 3.45 (29.0%) to win the tournament, with Germany now slipping past them as favourites.
They were firm favourites through each of their group matches. Thanks to their opening round draw to Italy, Spanish backers would have left the group stage -0.29 units at even stakes (-9.7% return.). In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goals, the value in Spain matches was with the Under. Backing the Under 2.5 goals in each of Spain's three group matches would have returned a profit of 0.78 units (+26.0% return).
Spain will face France in the quarter-finals over Euro 2012. They will go in at odds of 1.88 to take care of business in regulation time. Over the last three Euro tournaments, such favourites have found themselves drawn at the half in 12 of 26 matches played going on to lose just once in those 12 matches.
Obscure Stat: Over last 3 tournaments 6 teams have reached the knock-out stage with a negative group stage profitability. Only 1 advanced to the final - Germany in 2008.
Germany
Kicking off the tournament behind Spain as Euro 2012 favourites, the Germans have now been trimmed into favourite status as we enter the quarterfinals. As they entered the opening round match against Portugal, they were selling at 4.60 (21.7%) to claim the title. With group stage commitments over, Germany are now 3.30 (30.3%), a shift of 8.6%, the highest for any team remaining in the tournament.
Germany were the only team to leave the group stage with a perfect winning record as they made relative light work of the Group of Death. Backing them through each match would have give you a profit of +3.13 (+104.3% return.). In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goal betting, betting Over in each match would have returned punters +0.67 profit, a return of +22.3% at even stakes, one of three teams remaining in the tournament to return a profit for Over 2.5 goals throughout the group stage.
The Germans come into their quarter-final against Greece at odds of 1.37 to win in regulation time. Over the last three tournaments teams starting a match as favourites of 1.70 or less have won 17 of 26 matches played, going into the half behind on just 5 of 26 occasions.
Obscure Stat: Of the last 12 teams to be elminated at the quarter-final stage only two had a group stage profitability above +3.00.
Portugal
Escaping the Group of Death, of the eight teams remaining Portugal were the team to see their tournament odds fluctuate the greatest during group stage play. Opening the tournament at odds of 21.00 (4.8%), the Portuguese traded as high as 30.00 (3.3%) following their opening round loss to Germany. Now with group commitments concluded, Portugal find themselves 3rd favourites to claim Euro 2012 honours at odds of 8.60 (11.6%). This was the second largest shift in price from pre-tournament odds behind Germany, at 6.9% in price.
Backing Portugal to win through each of their Group B appointments would have returned punters a profit of 1.54 at even stakes, a return of +51.3%. In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goals betting, the value was with betting the Over. Doing so in each match would have returned a profit of 0.78 units, a return of +26.0%.
Portugal enter their quarter-final with the Czech Republic at odds in the range of 1.80 at Betfair. Over the last three Euro tournaments, teams coming into a match between odds of 1.71 and 2.20 have won 50.0% of 34 matches played, losing on 7 occasions. In terms of halftime betting, teams in this odds range have only been behind on 5 occasions (14.7% of matches played.
Obscure Stat: Over the last 3 Euro tournaments, 8 teams entered the knock-out stage with a group stage profitability between +0.50 and +2.50. Four were eliminated at the quarter-finals.
England
Pre-tournament the English were trading at 15.50 (6.5%) with little changing in the lead up to their final group match against the Ukraine. Following final day developments which saw them leap France in Group D standings, setting up a meeting with Italy and avoding an appointment with Spain, the English saw their price clipped from 13.50 (7.4%) to their current price of 9.80 (10.2%).
Backing England through each of their group commitments would have returned a profit of 1.31, a return of 43.7%. In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goals value, the Under was the preferred option, returning a profit of 0.22 units across their three group matches.
Obscure Stat: Of the last 24 teams to advance to the knock-out stage, only 4 with a group stage profitability below +1.50 advanced to the semi-finals or beyond.
Italy
The Italians come into the knock-out stage just behind England in terms of tournament betting. Starting the tournament at 18.00 (5.6%) to claim Euro 2012, they are now listed at odds of 10.00 (10.0%), a shift in price of 4.4% from their tournament kickoff price.
Those backing Italy through each of their group stage matches would have suffered a loss of 1.61 units, a return of -53.7%. This was the poorest result of any team advancing to the knock-out stage with the Italians winning just one of their group appointments, a win at short odds over Ireland. In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goals value, the value was with the Under as each of Italy's group matches finished with 2 goals.
Obscure Stat: Of the last 12 teams to advance to the semi-finals, just one had negative group stage profitability below -1.00 - Netherlands in 2004.
France
The French enter the knock-out stage as the least favoured of those more likely favoured to win Euro 2012. Pre-tournament France were trading at 11.00 (9.1%). Now with the group stage complete, they find themselves at odds of 13.50 (7.4%) making France the only team of the remaining eight to have their odds drift from their opening tournament price, a shift of -1.7%.
Backing France through each of their group matches would have left punters with a loss of 0.94 units, with only Italy posting a worse record for backers. In terms of Over/Under value, each of Frances three group matches ended under 2.5 goals, with each match ending with 2 goals scored.
France have the unfavourable task of a meeting with Spain in the quarter-finals. Spain enter as favourites of 1.88 to win within the 90 minutes. Teams opposing such favourites over the last three Euro tournaments have led at the halftime break in 5 of 26 matches played, going on to win just one of those matches, losing three.
Obscure Stat: Of the last 6 teams to advance to the quarter-finals with a negative group stage profitability, only 2 reached the semi-finals.
Czech Republic
The Czech's come into the final eight as one of two outsiders. Heading into the tournament you could buy them at 85.00 (1.2%) to win the tournament, at odds of as much 150.00 (0.7%) following their opening round loss to Russia. Despite their unlikely qualification for the quarter-finals, not much has changed as the Czech's are now selling at 55.00 (1.8%).
As would be expected, backing the Czech Republic through each of their group matches would have returned a profit of 2.53 at even stakes, a return of 84.3%, the best performance behind Germany. In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goal betting, the Over was the value returing a profit of 1.99 units, the highest return for over backers of any of the remaining eight teams.
The Czech Republic will face Portugal in the quarter-finals. Teams playing against a favourite of between 1.71 and 2.20 over the last three Euro tournaments, have managed to win or draw in 17 of 34 matches played. They have however been behind at the half in 11 of those 34 matches played.
Obscure Stat: Over the last 3 tournaments, 9 teams have entered the knock-out stage with a group stage profitability over +2.00. Four reached the semi-finals and three reached the final.
Greece
The Greeks entered the tournament at odds of 110.00 (0.9%) to claim yet another unlikely European crown. Their odds have now halved to 60.00 (1.7%) to do just that after trading at 330.00 (0.3%) following their 2nd round loss to the Czech Republic.
For Greece backers, their final round win was enough to get them out of the group stage with a profit at even stakes, returning 2.04 units. In terms of Over/Under 2.5 value, the Under was the preferred option, with a profit of 0.29 units across the Greek's three group stage matches.
Greece have the daunting task of a quarter-final appointment with tournament favourites Germany. Teams playing against favourites of odds shorter than 1.70 (Germany are at odds of 1.37 to beat Greece within 90 minutes.) have won just twice in 26 matches played over the last three tournaments but led at the half in five of those.
Obscure Stat: Over the last 3 tournaments, 7 teams have reached the knockout-stage with a group stage profitability between +1.00 and +3.00. Five advanced as far as the semi-finals.
Favourites In the Knock-Out Stage
The chart below shows the performance of favourites at even stakes during the knock-out stage over the last three Euro tournaments of 2000, 2004 and 2008.
| Favourites Odds | Matches | W-D-L Record | Win Return | Draw Return | Loss Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 to 1.99 | 9 | 4-3-2 | -2.4 (-26.7%) | 1.9 (+21.1%) | 5.2 (-3.8%) |
| 2.00 to 2.75 | 12 | 5-6-1 | -0.9 (-7.5%) | 7.5 +62.5%) | -8.8 (-73.3%) |
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