Euro 2012 - 1st Semi Final : Spain 0 Portugal 0 (4-2) - The Betting Charts
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
In the 1st semi-final of Euro 2012, Spain advance to the final following a penalty shoot-out victory over Portugal. Today on the blog, Andrew looks at how the odds shaped throughout the match.
The Euro 2012 semi-finals began with the intriguing encounter between defending champions Spain and Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal. In what turned out to be mostly an indifferent affair, Spain would ultimately go on to win in a penalty shootout. Let's then take a look at how the odds shaped as the match progressed.
Fulltime : Spain 0 - Portugal 0
The chart below shows us the implied probability of the odds for each outcome as the full 90 minutes of regulation time evolved. (By implied probability we mean the chance represented by the odds on offer. i.e Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance of that outcome occurring.)
Spain began firm favourites though not quite odds-on status, kicking off at the price of 2.02 (49.5%). Meanwhile the Draw was attracting attention at odds of 3.35 (29.9%) and underdogs Portugal could be bought at 4.80 (20.8%).
Early on Spain would drift slightly, trading at 2.12 (47.2%) just 6 minutes into the match. From there they would firm once again and by the 20th minute, we had all but returned to opening kickoff prices.
From that point on, the odds for each team to win would drift while the Draw firmed, going odds-on as we entered the 61st minute.
Extra Time : Spain 0 - Portugal 0
As we entered extra-time, Spain were posted at odds of 1.76 (56.8%) to win the match in either the extra-time period or on penalities while Portugal were looking for love at odds of 2.28 (43.9%).
Nothing would move traders off these prices with Spain shortening to as much as 1.70 early in the 2nd period of extra time. From then on in, the decision seemed destined for penalties.
Penalty Shootout : Spain 4 - Portugal 2
And so it would come down to penalties. The chart below shows how the odds shifted following each penalty kick.
Spain entered the shootout at odds of 1.77 (56.5%) to advance to the final with Portugal trading at 2.28 (43.9%). When Alonso missed the opening kick, Portugal were clipped into favourites status, selling at 1.63 (61.4%).
Moutinho would then proceed miss the 2nd kick of the shootout, reseting Spain to 1.76 favourites.
Iniesta would convert Spain's 2nd kick, seeing them shorten to odds of 1.53 (65.4%) in the process. Pepe then responded for Portugal bringing them in from 2.84 (35.2%) to 2.14 (46.7%).
Pique would score for Spain again seeing them shorten to 1.57, but once again only briefly as Nani converted for Portugal.
Ramos' successful kick would once again see Spain shorten, this time to 1.60. And when Alves missed for Portugal, the Spaniards were trading at 1.15 (87.0%) to be heading to Sunday's final with Fabregas striding to the spot.
And so Fabregas would covert sending Spain through to yet another international tournament final, while Portugal were left to regret their opportunities.
So that's semi-final number in the books. Tomorrow we will find out who will be challenging Spain in Sunday's final as Germany enter their semi-final appointment with Italy as 1.97 favourites.
You must be logged in to post a comment! Sign up + or log in in the top right corner.