The Euro 2012 Halftime-Fulltime Charts

Jun 5th, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football, Euro 2012

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Looking for Euro halftime-fulltime results? Wondering how often a halftime draw remains a draw at fulltime? How often does the team leading at halftime win? Euro 2012 is almost here and today on the blog Andrew delivers his Euro Halftime-Fulltime Charts.

HTFTEuro

Euro 2012 is just a couple of days away. And so on the blog today I bring to you the Euro 2012 Halftime-Fulltime charts. With each chart I hope to help you answer all those biting questions such as how often has an underdog come back from a halftime deficit; how often has a favourite come from a goal behind to win and the like.

The charts are compiled using match odds from the last three Euro tournaments – 2000, 2004 and 2008. The odds are for fulltime regulation results not including extra time. Also, the odds used are standardised 4.5% commission I.e. 1.91 'even money'.

Favourites 1.70 and less

So let's start by looking at firm favourites of odds 1.70 or less. Over the last three tournaments, there have been 26 matches that featured such fancied favourites. Highlighted we can see the halftime results in these matches with the most common result here being a halftime draw occuring in 12 of the 26 matches played.

Favourites 1.70 and less	Halftime Result		Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Halftime Win	9 (34.6%)	Halftime Lead	7 (77.8%)	2 (22.2%)	0 (0.0%)
Halftime Draw	12 (46.2%)	Halftime Drawn	7 (58.4%)	4 (33.3%)	1 (8.3%)
Halftime Loss	5 (19.2%)	Halftime Behind	3 (60.0%)	1 (20.0%)	1 (20.0%)
Total	26		17 (65.4%)	7 (26.9%)	2 (7.7%)

Just nine of those 26 favourites managed to lead at half-time but when they did they held on to win in seven of those nine matches, drawing the remaining two and avoiding defeat on each occasion. We can also see that when drawn at the half, these favourites have managed to win in seven of 12 matches, even coming back to win three of the five matches in which they found themselves behind at the half.

Favourites 1.71 to 2.20

Now let's take a look at more moderate favourites. There were 34 matches over the previous three Euro tournaments where a favourite of 1.71 to 2.20 started. We can see highlighted that almost 53% of these matches were drawn at halftime with these favourites behind at the half on just five of 34 occasions.

Favourites 1.71 to 2.20	Halftime Result		Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Halftime Win	11 (32.4%)	Halftime Lead	9 (81.8%)	1 (9.1%)	1 (9.1%)
Halftime Draw	18 (52.9%)	Halftime Drawn	7 (38.9%)	8 (44.4%)	3 (16.7%)
Halftime Loss	5 (14.7%)	Halftime Behind	1 (20.0%)	1 (20.0%)	3 (60.0%)
Total	34		17 (50.0%)	10 (29.4%)	7 (20.6%)

Of those 18 matches which saw a drawn opening half, the favourites only managed to snatch a victory on seven occasions, with the match remaining drawn in eight while losing in just three. We can also see that when these teams led at the half, which occurred on 11 occasions, they managed to hold onto the lead nine times, drawing once and losing once.

Favourites 2.21 to 2.75

Finally let's take a look at slight favourites, teams that started between odds of 2.21 and 2.75. Over the last three tournaments there have been 33 matches that featured such teams. Interestingly these teams were behind at the half on just seven of 33 occasions.

Favourites 2.21 to 2.75	Halftime Result		Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Halftime Lead	13 (39.4%)	Halftime Lead	9 (69.2%)	1 (7.7%)	3 (23.1%)
Halftime Drawn	13 (39.4%)	Halftime Drawn	6 (46.2%)	3 (23.1%)	4 (30.7%)
Halftime Behind	7 (21.2%)	Halftime Behind	1 (14.2%)	3 (42.9%)	3 (42.9%)
Total	33		16 (48.5%)	7 (21.2%)	10 (30.3%)

As would be expected, results here are more varied. On 13 occasions these teams found themselves leading at the half and in nine of those 13, they managed to retain the lead at fulltime. They did however let the match get away on three occasions. We can also see that when behind at the half, just once did such a favourite come back to win in seven matches played.

Margins

Ok so let's now have a look at half-time margins. Firstly we will look at teams leading by a single goal at the half. Here favourites refers to any team starting the match at odds of less than 2.75.

1 Goal Halftime Lead	Halftime Lead	Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Favourites	29 (64.4%)	21 (72.4%)	4 (13.8%)	4 (13.8%)
Underdogs	16 (35.6%)	6 (37.5%)	5 (31.3%)	5 (31.3%)

As the chart above shows, when favourites led at the half by a single goal, they managed to hold onto victory in 21 of 29 such matches, drawing four times and losing four times. When underdogs led at the half by a single goal, which occurred on 16 occasions, they managed to hold onto the lead in just six of those match, losing five times and drawing five times.

As a note, over the last three Euro tournaments, there have been five matches where a club led by 2 goals or more at the half. On four occasions it was the favourite and once the underdog. On each occasion, the team that led by 2 goals at the half, won the match.

Half-time Draws

Let's conclude by looking at half-time draws. The chart below shows the occurrence of half-time scoreless draws over the last three tournaments.

0-0 Halftime Draw	Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Favourites	14 (41.2%)	14 (41.2%)	6 (17.6%)

We can see that there were 34 such matches and on 14 occasions the favourite managed to claim the victory at full-time. The match remained a draw likewise on 14 occasions while the underdog claimed the victory after a scoreless first half on just six occasions.

Scoring Halftime Draw	Fulltime win	Fulltime Draw	Fulltime Loss
Favourites	6 (66.7%)	1 (11.1%)	2 (22.2%)

Finally, the chart above shows the half-time-full-time results for matches where there was a scoring draw at half-time. We can see that on six of nine occasions, the favourite won the match while the match remained drawn on just one occasion.

Concluding Thoughts

It's hoped that the data provided here can act as a guide for punters who will be seeking to trade in and out of matches as the tournament proceeds and for punters who like to bet HT/FT results. As we know, elite international football competition is a much different animal to domestic competition and punters should be wise to approach it as such.

Later this week I will deliver my Euro Over/Under Goal Total Charts. So look out for them.

Good luck this June.