Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

What is playing at home worth in the Premier League? Does it change as time elapses during a match? At what point in a match does it begin to seriously diminish? Today Andrew looks at how long home advantage lasts in the English Premier League.

Over the last year or so, a catch word around the football world has been 'soccer analytics', the task of breaking football down to its core mechanisms, assessing club performance, working out why some clubs do well and why others don't.

Some analysts are professionals, deconstructing football from all angles (at times to a banal degree). While others do it for the love of the game..........and/or numbers.

One of my favourite analysts is Ford Bohrmann. I stumbled across his work on Twitter. On his site, Soccer Statistically, Ford shares his perspective on football stats and gives his readers some intriguing visual breakdowns.

One tool he has developed is his Outcome Probability Calculator. Here he has used 10 seasons of Premier League data and created a cool applet where users can find the probability of a fulltime result depending upon the goal difference at a particular time in the match.

As home field advantage is something that interests me, I decided to use Ford's calculator to assess home field advantage as a match progresses.

And here's the result.

Home advantage with scores tied

Firstly I decided to look at home advantage as time elapses with the scores locked. The chart below shows how home advantage decays throughout a match as we head towards fulltime.

As per Ford's calculator, at kickoff, home teams have won 49% of matches played in the Premier League over the last 10 seasons, with away clubs winning 28%, giving home clubs a proportional advantage of 1.75 over their visitors of winning the match.

With scores tied, we can see that the likelihood of the home club winning deteriorate proportional to the probability of the away club winning as time elapses. And when scores are tied post the 80th minute, we can see home advantage drop significantly to the point where as we enter injury time, the likelihood of the home club breaking the deadlock, though slim is virtually equal to that of the visitors.

Let's look at the issue in pure terms. The chart above displays the difference in winning probabililty as time elapses between home clubs and away clubs when scores are tied. We begin with home clubs having a 21% greater probability of winning the match as we kickoff, a 15% greater chance at halftime when scores are tied with both home and away clubs having equal chance as we enter injury time. We can also see that the difference between the home club winning and away club winning steadily diminishes throughout the 1st half and picks up pace as we go beyond the 70th minute.

Concluding thoughts

The task of quantifying home field advantage is a difficult one. We know it exists. We can see it play out each and every weekend. And quantifying home field advantage as time elapses, although a more complex task is one that would be well worth the endevour, not only in terms of in-play betting implications but similarly for tactial implementation for any serious manager.

Although we've taken quite a simple and limited approach to assessing such advantage as the 90 minutes of a football match elapse, it would be great to see serious football analysts take up the task and investigate the phenomenon of home field advantage to a much deeper degree.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

You can follow Ford Bohrmann on Twitter : @SoccerStatistic

And be sure to check out his Outcome Probability Calculator.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How often are Premier League matches drawn at halftime?

How do midweek Champions League fixtures impact domestic form?

When is the 1st goal scored in the Premier League?

What if the Premier League had a playoff system?

How often do football matches end without a goal?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/home-advantage-premier-league-as-time-elapses

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

In his regular racing editorial, Stephen shares his thoughts on the potential for corruption in British racing as prize money and public interest continues to diminish through the current economic climate.

British Racing is struggling through a long and painful recession, as so many sectors in the entertainment/leisure are, but it's diminishing prize money is having further side effects and increasing the potential for corruption. This has the disastrous outcome of punters losing interest in the sport and preferring to wager on other sports/lotteries etc where they feel they have a real chance of success and not merely playing into an "insiders game".

The problem of race-fixing and stopping horses is not a new one and whenever betting is involved the temptation is there. However the distortion between reward for winning and the possible gains for losing is now so wide that it is hard to believe that it is not occuring on a regular basis.

The all-weather racing has traditionally been very low grade and modest horses racing for prize money less than £1500 for winning. This has been a lethal combination, with at least £500,000 traded per race on the leading betting exchange the disparity of "reward" has not escaped everyone's attention.

In 2007 the highest profile duo so far were banned...

"Jockey Tony Culhane has been suspended for 12 months after an investigation into 37 races in 2003 and 2004."

Another rider, Dean Mernagh, received a nine-month ban, and two unlicensed individuals in Culhane's family were warned off - disqualified. Culhane was found to have breached a rule which forbids aiding or abetting individuals to lay or back horses with the benefit of inside information. Mernagh was found to have communicated inside information for reward.

Those members of Culhane's family punished were his brother-in-law and former jump jockey Gary Lyons, and father-in-law Dave Watkins. All four individuals were found guilty of misleading Jockey Club officers when they were questioned about events. Watkins was warned off for five years for using information received from the two jockeys for gain on betting exchanges, and also passing it on to Lyons.

And then in 2008...

"Jockey Dean McKeown and trainer Paul Blockley have appealed against bans imposed after a British Horseracing Authority corruption probe."

They were found guilty of conspiring with others to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice. McKeown was banned from the sport for four years while Blockley was given a 30-month suspension. The jockey later had his licence revoked after he was found guilty under the non-triers' rule.

Blockley was found guilty of failing to give proper instructions to McKeown to ride a horse on its merits. And a panel ruled the jockey did not ensure four mounts ran on their merits. The trainer's disqualification has been put on hold pending his appeal, which is scheduled to start on 15 December. If their bans are upheld, they will not be allowed to train, ride or own racehorses, work in stables, go racing or have dealings with other licensed people.

The pair, who denied the charges, were accused of being involved with the laying of horses to lose in races between March 2004 and December 2005. The bets in question risked a total of £182,541, but in fact, because every bet was a winner, the overall profit was £61,909. It is the first major BHA anti-corruption case since the Old Bailey race-fixing trial involving former champion jockey Kieren Fallon collapsed in December 2007.

Most recently in December 2011 arguably the biggest scandal to hit the sport...

"Jockeys Paul Doe and Greg Fairley have been banned from racing for 12 years for 'not riding a horse to its merits' after an investigation into corruption."

Two other jockeys are among 11 people barred from the sport following a British Horseracing Authority probe. Kirsty Milczarek has been banned for two years, while Jimmy Quinn has received a six-month punishment. Owners Maurice "Fred" Sines and James Crickmore have been banned for 14 years for betting on their own horse to lose.

Fairley and Doe had both quit racing earlier this year. Quinn and Milczarek were both found guilty of corruption, but the latter was also found to have breached a rule forbidding jockeys passing on information in return for reward. Quinn, who has ridden four winners for champion trainer Richard Hannon this year, does not intend to appeal while Milczarek does.

Five others - Nick Gold, Peter Gold, Shaun Harris, David Kendrick and Liam Vasey - were also found guilty of "corrupt or fraudulent practice". Vasey, Kendrick and Harris were banned for five, four and three years respectively while a decision on Nick and Peter Gold's penalties will be made after further written submissions.

"While it is the names of the jockeys that the racing public will recognise, people should be under no illusions that it is the lesser-known names who were the instigators of these serious breaches of the rules," said BHA director Paul Scotney.

"The investigation uncovered a network through which Sines and Crickmore engaged in betting activity, in particular with two riders, Paul Doe and Greg Fairley, that impacted on seven of the 10 races in question.

"In the BHA's history, the scale and complexity of this case is unprecedented."

So where do we stand?

Some may say that this illustrates that the corruption within racing is being stopped by vigorous investigation. The BHA has certainly upped its game in recent years and the co-operation with betfair has meant proving "guilt" in these cases has clearly become a lot easier. However, the penalties are not strict enough and no deterrant to wrongdoing. Until complete lifetime bans become the norm with severe financial consequences (as in Australia and the Far-east) then the temptation will still prove too strong.

There is little doubt still that some of the wild fluctuations on the exchanges pre-race are not merely down to opinionated punters putting their cash on the line through detailed form analysis. While steps have been implemented to cut down on so-called inside info (i.e the banning of mobile phones in the weighing room), it is still hard to explain some of the rides seen on a daily basis on our all-weather courses in particular. Unfortunately until the BHA actually catches anyone redhanded it is very hard for anyone in the racing media to comment, especially as they rely on the goodwill of riders and trainers to write copy each day. The recent scandal was big news for a few days but has been quietly forgotten about as it suits those in the sport not to highlight what was systematic theft of punters money (that they never saw returned) over a long period of time.

The Problem

The problem lies in a number of areas. Principally racing is funded by the profits that bookmakers make, through a levy, and anything that is bad news for racing is sure to diminish the amount wagered on the sport itself. Therefore all concerned have a vested interest in burying bad news and ignoring corruption. This gravy train has rolled along for many years, with most of the mainstream media on board. The rapid rise of betting exchanges has made this impossible to ignore such is the scale of it (in financial terms) and prize money cuts, less owners in the sport, recession etc etc are all factors that have made the temptation/need to cheat grow. Although this latest BHA action in December is a step in the right direction, it is hard to believe that this is not just the tip of the iceberg.

Solutions

1 - Lifetime bans and massive fines for all those found guilty.

2- Prize money must be increased to an agreed minimum level (as set out by the Horsemans Group). Raised by a super tax on profits made by FB0T's in betting shops and the restructuring of taxes paid by those firms based overseas but trading on British racing (they currently avoid huge sums by relocation to different countries).

3- Far more transparency in the betting exchanges. In the early days of Flutter (the first exchange pre-betfair) it was possible to see who was on the other side of every wager. This might have issues of privacy etc but the idea is a good one. At the moment it is a bit similar to ringing up your stockbroker to buy shares in a company only to buy them from the managing director who is offloading all of his shares because of impending bad news. If punters can see who is doing what and when it might increase confidence in the sport and certainly become harder for wrong-doing to go undetected.

Conclusion

The world of racing has a lot to be proud of and certainly has done well to weather the current financial storm. However, it is an industry based entirely on punter confidence and unless these integrity issues are dealt with severely and rapidly (some of the current enquiries have dragged on for many years) then the share of betting that racing commands will continue to fall. This spiralling vicious circle then in turn leads to lower and lower prize money and logically to a bigger need/incentive to cheat the system.

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

5 early value selections for Cheltenham Festival 2012

What type of punter are you?

3 books about betting all punters should read

How to bet with BettingExpert's Hot Horses

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/horse-racing-corruption-in-the-united-kingdom

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Who should you bet on for Super Bowl 46? What are some of the historical Super Bowl betting trends? When will the teams score first? All these questions will attempt to be answered as Andrew brings you 10 (or more) Betting Facts for Super Bowl 46.

Facts - Recent form

The Giants have crashed their way through their last 5 games. They have covered the line in each of them, 3 of which they were underdogs. And they haven't just covered, they've been mocking the betting line, covering the line by a combined 81 points across the 5 games.

Over the last 20 seasons, there have been 6 instances of an underdog coming into the Super Bowl having covered the line in a streak of at least their previous 4 games. The record of those underdogs against the line in the Super Bowl was 4-1-1.

Looking at their last 2 games, teams that have won as underdogs in 2 consecutive playoff games to reach the Super Bowl are 4-0 against the line on the big day.

But what does recent form mean for New England? Well since Tom Brady's rookie season, the Patriots are 40-28-1 against the line following a game in which they failed to cover the line. In other words, Brady rarely has two bad games in a row. In other other words, the Pats rebound.

Facts - Toss of the Coin

A coin-toss fact for anyone with a fetish for betting on events that last less than a few seconds - The team representing the NFC has won the coin-toss the last 14 seasons. Surely that can't continue right? I mean, come on. (Yes, I'm being sarcastic.)

Oh and in case you needed any more persuading - The last AFC team to win the coin-toss? Yes, you guessed it - The Patriots - way back in Super Bowl 31 against Green Bay.

The following coin-toss stat comes with thanks from the National Football Post and it's a pretty good one. Since Tom Brady's season ending ACL injury in 2008, the Patriots have played 65 games. In 28 of those games they won the coin-toss and on each occasion they chose to kick-off.

Which is why the Giants are around odds of 1.50 to receive the ball first on Sunday.

Facts - Favourites, Dogs & Overs & Unders

So here's some breakdowns of each of the 4 combinations Super Bowls have played out with regards to favourites, underdogs & Over/Under results :

Favourites cover with the game going Over - 14 times.

Underdogs cover with the game going Over - 8 times.

Favourites cover with the game going Under - 10 times.

Underdogs cover with the game going Under - 10 times.

Yes, there's been 45 Super Bowls and those numbers only add up to 42. Well, Super Bowl 1 didn't have an Over/Under and there have been 2 Super Bowls where the line result was a push. So there you go, the most common combination has been the favourite covering coupled with the Over.

But here's the real tasty stat - in the last 29 Super Bowls, the combination of favourite coupled with the Under has occurred just 3 times. That's just a strike rate of just over 10%. But however, it occurred recently, twice, in back to back seasons, Super Bowl 40 and Super Bowl 41.

Facts - When will they score?

Ok, so now something for in-play punters - When can we expect the teams to score? I've broken down both teams in terms of points scored and conceded for each qtr of each game this season. Here's what is interesting.

- The Patriots best qtr for scoring was the 2nd, while the 1st qtr was their worst.

- The Giants best qtr for scoring was the 4th, while the 3rd qtr was their worst.

- In terms of defense, both teams shared the 3rd qtr as their best for limiting the opposition.

- Similarly, both teams shared the 4th qtr as their worst for limiting opposition scoring.

So what does this mean? Well it might be that we can expect not much action straight after halftime with both the Pats and Giants defenses being at their best and the Giants offense being at it's worst.

But it might heat up in the 4th with both defenses giving up points and the Giants having their best offensive production in the final qtr.

When will the 1st score of the game be?

A mildly scientific method I applied came to the conclusion that the 1st score will occur with 9.14 remaining in the 1st qtr. How did I come up with that? Don't worry. Some methods are best left unknown.

Facts - Chances of a Blowout

When we take a look at the history of Super Bowls where the line has been between 2.5 and 4 points, we see something striking.

In Super Bowl history their have been 13 such games. That's approximately 29% of all Super Bowls played. In those 13 games, 10 have ended with a margin of at least 10 points. And in 5 of those 10, it was the underdog that ended up winning by the double digit margin.

To go a step further, 7 of those 13 games ended with a winning margin of at least 17 points.

Also in the last 15 Patriots games where they were favoured with the line between 2.5 and 4, the winning margin for either team was at least 10pts in 9 of those 15 games, while for the Giants when underdogs in the same range, the winning margin for either team has been at least 10pts in 8 of their last 15 such matches.

Facts - Considering 2011 Win/Loss records

New England finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, collecting 4 more wins than the Giants who finished 2011 with a modest record of 9-7. Should the Giants win on Sunday they will be the 1st team to win a Super Bowl with a mere 9-7 regular season record.

However, the Patriots combined opponent strength of schedule was a winning pct of just 47.3%, while the Giants had the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the league, a combined winning pct of 55.9%.

Further, when we consider playoff rankings of teams in previous Super Bowls, the results have been interesting. Over the last 15 Super Bowls, the lower ranked team is 12-1-2 against the line. If we consider the last 10 seasons, the lower ranked teams are 8-1 against the line, with the New Orleans v Indianapolis game being the only 1st seed Super Bowl meeting in the last 10 seasons.

Facts - In-Season pay back

The Patriots hosted the Giants back in Week 9 of this season where the Giants prevailed in a 24-20 thriller. But that shouldn't worry anybody prepared to bet on New England.

Why?

Because since 2000 when Bill Belichick became coach, when the Patriots have lost to an opponent then played them again later within the same season, they have gone 13-3 against the line in the re-match. An impressive 81% win rate. Yes, Belichick is the master of adjustments and the Patriots have often caught Vegas lines napping when coming up against teams that got the better of them earlier in the season during the Belichick era.

Facts - Going against quality opposition

New England played just 3 teams that ended the season with a win/loss record above 50% - Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. In all 3 games the Patriots failed to cover the line. And they failed large, with a combined line margin of -28 over the 3 games.

Meanwhile, the Giants survived a savage schedule that included New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice. Hell. Oh and they managed to go 8-2 against the line in those 10 games. No small effort.

Facts - Big Overs

The Over/Under line for the game began at 55pts. That tied for the 2nd biggest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The game it tied with? The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl back in 2007/2008. Then the teams combined for just 31 points.

The line has now settled at around 53/54pts. Since 1994 there have been 7 Super Bowl O/U lines above 50 points. In 5 of those the game went Under.

And both teams are coming into this game with very contrasting O/U trends - the Giants have gone Under in 5 of their last 6 games while the Patriots have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 games. Something's got to give.

Oh and for people thinking of betting the 1st qtr Over/Under - The 1st qtr has gone Under in 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. The 1st qtr O/U on Sunday is 10.5pts.

Facts - First to 23?

Obviously the key to winning and to covering the line is to score points. "Yeah, thanks Einstein."

But here's an interesting stat (and most likely a useless one) - And it revolves around the number 23.

When a team scored at least 23 points in the Super Bowl, they are 31-9-2 against the line. When they score less than 23 points, they are 12-34-2.

And in Super Bowls where at least one team scored 23 points, the game has gone Over 21-13.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

Listen to Andrew talk Super Bowl betting on Matt Finnigan's Podcast

And follow Matt on Twitter : @MattFinnigan

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

An Infographic - The History of Super Bowl Betting

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

Who wins when a NBA game goes into overtime?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

20 NFL Playoff Betting Facts

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/betting-trends-statistics-super-bowl-46-new-england-patriots-new-york-giants

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

What were the bettling lines for every Super Bowl ever played? What were the Over/Under lines? Today on the blog we answer both of these questions as we present to you - The History of Super Bowl Betting.

With less than a week to go until the New England Patriots and New York Giants square off in Super Bowl 46, it's a perfect time to take a look back at previous Super Bowl results - And most importantly, historical betting lines, both head to head and over/under.

The chart below displays all lines, both head to head & over/under, plus fulltime results from the 1st Super Bowl almost 50 years ago, all the way to last year's matchup between Green Bay and Pittsburgh. The lines in green are lines that were covered by the favoured team, while lines in red were covered by the underdogs. Similarly, over/under lines in green were covered, while over/under lines in red were not.

And so without much more to add, I give to you The History of Super Bowl Betting....chart.

Enjoy.

<a href="http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/history-of-super-bowl-betting-lines"><img src="http://www.bettingexpert.com/assets/images/blog/SuperbowlHistory/SBHistoryBlog2.jpg" alt="A History of Super Bowl Betting Odds - BettingExpert Blog" title="A History of Super Bowl Betting Odds - BettingExpert Blog" width="952" height="4211" /></a><br/><a href="http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog">The BettingExpert Blog</a>

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Warm weather NFL teams going cold late in the season

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

Do west coast NFL teams under perform when travelling east?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

20 NFL Playoff Betting Facts

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/history-of-super-bowl-betting-lines

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

Where is the early value at this years Cheltenham Fesitval? With the festival just a month away, in our new regular racing editorial, BettingExpert's racing analyst Stephen shares his thoughts and tells us which horses are deserving of your investment at Cheltenham this year.

With March now a month away, NH racing fans begin to feel that eager sense of anticipation as the highlight of the entire season gets ever closer. With running plans not cast in stone for many of the protagonists it is essential to bet with a layer offering the valuable "non runner no bet" stipulation.

We have selected five wagers to add to your ante-post portfolio that can provide a vital edge when the festival begins. This will hopefully put BettingExpert followers in a strong position on the day.

1- BIG BUCKS

8-13 WILLIAM HILLS - World Hurdle ***** WIN

The champ has continued in unstoppable fashion this season, extending his winning run to 14. Any slight doubts about his going right handed swept away last time as he was always travelling smoothly for most of the way, just shaken up briefly as the leader pressed on 3 out, soon covering that move and powering away in the straight, not needing to be anywhere near his best but impressive in the manner of victory and remaining very hard to oppose so far as another World Hurdle bid is concerned. This is a short price but 8-13 may seem very fair on the day and it is hard to see any of the present geneartion getting him off the bridle.

2-GRUMETI

10-1 BETFRED TOTE - Triumph hurdle ** EACH-WAY

He was useful on the flat and was unfortunate not to follow up his Taunton win last time at Newbury. He remains a serious contender for the Triumph Hurdle, travelling strongly all the way and 8 lengths up and cruising when he fell 2 out, looking none the worse afterwards. He appeals as by far the best English juvenile seen out and with recent history suggesting the Irish challenge may come up short, he is well worth an each-way investment at this stage.

3-LONG RUN

5-2 General price - Gold Cup **** WIN

Beaten twice this season by his old foe but still appeals as the one to beat, and this course plays to his stamina strengths. Last time he confirmed the positive impression created at Haydock and lost nothing in defeat against one of the outstanding chasers, beaten fair and square but still with every chance of gaining a second win in the Gold Cup, his form and that of the winner head and shoulders above that of any of their likely rivals at the moment, tactics plus less fluent (but not poor) jumping making a difference to this outcome, closing strongly come the end after Kauto Star had essentially sealed the race when pressing on after the twelfth, the longer trip at Cheltenham more in his favour than the winner's.

4-AL FEROF

13-2 Coral - Arkle *** WIN

Finished a very creditable third behind Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot recently and will be suited by this stiffer course if renewing rivalry. He appeals as sure to be shorter on the day if choosing this option and is a young, unexposed chaser firmly on the upgrade. He didn't look himself beforehand last time, not taking the eye and appearing as if he'd be sharper with the run behind him, and he was a little flat at various stages of the race, nevertheless running right up to form against much more experienced chasers-he remains a very strong contender for the Arkle at Cheltenham, for which he's likely to be trained to the minute; he responded well when pushed along and had every chance in the straight, going less well than the other pair and having to give best before the last.

5-CINDERS AND ASHES

12-1 General price - Supreme Novice Hurdle ** WIN

Won readily in the deep ground last time out but trainer Donald McCain reported he would do far better on a decent surface and appeals as the value choice in a race he has been targeted at all season. He continues to make an excellent impression and looks firmly on target for the Supreme after another easy win, not actually having to improve to land this Grade 2 contest with only 2 in opposition but once more most impressive in landing the odds, jumping and travelling most fluently again and firmly in control when flattening the last, just kept up to his work.

Best Wishes with all your festival wagers and please watch out daily for the Hot Horses that provide exclusive information about what is being supported by the warmest accounts with the major firms.

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

What type of punter are you?

3 books about betting all punters should read

How to bet with BettingExpert's Hot Horses

10 horses to follow this National Hunt Season

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/5-pointers-for-the-cheltenham-festival-2012

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Which team is more likely to win when a NBA game goes into overtime? The home team? The favourites? The underdogs? As the NBA season is in full swing, today on the blog Andrew takes a look at the question.

Over the last 10 NBA seasons, roughly 6% of games have extended to overtime. Today on the blog I take a look at what happens when a NBA game does head into the extra period. Who is more likely to win? Do home clubs excel in overtime? Do underdogs fall away when going into extended minutes? I will try to answer each of these questions and more.

Home vs Away

Firstly let's do a simple home v away breakdown. Over the last 10 NBA seasons, home clubs won just under 52% of all overtime games. When the game went into a single overtime period, home clubs were consistent, winning just under 52% of games.

When the game went into double overtime, road clubs won 51% of the time, although the sample size was just 100 games played.

Lastly, though an even smaller sample size, home clubs were far superior when a game went into triple overtime, winning just under 71% of the time.

Home favourites vs Away favourites

But let's get into some betting analysis. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages for both home favourites and away favourites over the last 10 NBA seasons.

As we can see, when the home club starts the game as favourites, they win in overtime just over 56% of the time. This was over a sample size in excess of 500 games.

You might have thought that home underdogs would do better, but over the last 10 NBA seasons, away favourites have beaten home dogs in overtime just over 57% of the time, across a sample size of over 200 games.

Favourites big & small

Ok, now let's dig a little bit deeper. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages of both home favourites and away favourites grouped by rank of favouritism.

We can see that when home clubs started the game as a favourite of at least 9 points, when the game went to overtime, they won just over 72% of the time. When home clubs started favourites between 6 and 8.5 points, they won in overtime just over 61% of the time.

The most interesting observation is that when the game's starting betting line was between home clubs as favourites of at most 5.5 points all the way down to the away club being favourites of at most 2.5 points, the match was pretty much a 50-50 proposition when heading into extra time. In these situations, the home clubs won in overtime just over 49% of the time the last 10 NBA seasons. And importantly, these games consituted roughly 50% of all overtime games played over that span.

Finally, when away clubs started favourites of at least 3 points up to favourites of 6 points, they won in overtime just under 57% of the time, while when away clubs were favourites of at least 6.5 points, they won in overtime over 77% of the time.

So what did we learn?

Well for one thing we learned that while home favourites of 6 points or more and away favourites of 3 points or more win at a reasonably expected rate, there is a sweet spot inbetween where overtime games are a bit of a coin toss.

We also can see that away favourites tend to do a little bit better than home favourites. For example, home club favourites of at least 6.5 points won in overtime just under 66% of the time, while away favourites of the same kind won in overtime over 77% of the time.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Who wins the deciding set in men's tennis?

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

When is the 1st goal scored in a Premier League match?

How often do clubs come from behind from halftime in the Premier League?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/who-wins-when-a-nba-game-goes-into-overtime

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

It's NFL Conference Championship weekend as in the NFC title game the Giants visit San Francisco and in the AFC the Ravens visit New England. On the blog today Andrew delivers 10 facts that could help you find the value line this weekend.

Fact 1

The Giants head to San Francisco off their stunning win at Green Bay in the Divisional Round. However, teams playing away in the Championship Game coming off an underdog road win in the Divisional Round are 11-17 against the line since 1981.

Fact 2

New England made easy work of Denver in the Divisional Round, winning by a comfortable 35 points at home easily covering the line of 13.5 points. While teams playing at home in the Championship Game coming off a home game in which they covered the line are 25-19 against the line since 1981, but 2-4 against the line coming off a win of more than 30pts in the Divisional Round.

Fact 3

San Francisco pulled off the home upset win against the Saints in the Divisional Round. Teams playing at home coming off an underdog win are 4-0 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.

Fact 4

The Giants have covered the line in their last 4 games. Clubs playing on winning streak against the line of 4 are 2-9 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981 and 1-7 against the line when playing in a Championship Game on the road.

Fact 5

A great deal of the Giants success against Green Bay was due to winning the turnover battle. Teams playing away in a Conference Championship game coming off a Divisional playoff in which they had 3 less turnovers than their opponents are 8-3 against the line in Championship Game since 1981, but 1-5 against the line when they won the turnover battle by 4 or more turnovers.

Fact 6

New England held the Broncos to just 10 points in their home Divisional win last weekend. Teams playing at home in a Championship game that held their opponents to 10pts or fewer in the Divisional Round are 15-9 against the line since 1981 and 26-17 against the line both home or away.

Fact 7

The 49ers and the Saints was a classic shootout with both clubs combining for almost 900 total yards. Teams that played in a Divisional playoff where both teams combined for over 750 yards offence, are 8-19 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.

Fact 8

Despite winning the game, the 49ers were out-gained against New Orleans by 65 yards. Teams that were out-gained by their Divisional opponents by 50 yards or more are 0-5 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 3-10 against the line either home or away.

Fact 9

New England punished the Broncos on the scoreboard and in the boxscore, out-gaining Denver by 257 yards in total offence. Teams that out-gained their Divisional opponents by 200 yards or more are 0-6 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 1-8 against the line either home or away.

Fact 10

The 49ers combined with the Saints for 78 total points, while the Giants combined with the Packers for 57. When both clubs in a Championship game went Over the Total line in their Divisional playoffs, the Championship game has gone Over 8-3 since 1981.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Warm weather NFL teams going cold late in the season

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

Do west coast NFL teams under perform when travelling east?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

20 NFL Playoff Betting Facts

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/nfl-conference-championships-betting-facts-2011-2012

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

At what stage in life are we most primed to be a successful punter? On our blog today Stephen takes a look at how our potential to succeed in the betting game changes as we grow with experience.

Where are you in the betting cycle of life? And what experiences have you had so far in the ever changing world of betting?

Age 18-21

We all enter the world of gambling a bit similar to a child entering a sweet shop. Its an amazing new world and the pitfalls are not yet apparent. We tend to bet in a very recreational manner, perhaps accompanied by alcohol and watching live sports with mates. Bets are probably relatively small and not price sensitive at all. We use a layer who we have seen an advert for or got a free offer and tend to have spells of smashing away dependent on what else is happening in life. Often bets will be multiples or trying to win the lottery by finding huge odds accumulators. In summary these punters are ideal fodder for the betting industry.

Of course not all newbies fit this stereotype. Pat Veitch in his excellent autobiography "Enemy Number 0ne" details how he set up an extremely profitable tipping line whilst studying maths at Cambridge University, having several phonelines in his student lodgings manned by pals, and building up a huge customer base because of his amazing hit-rate at finding winners. He is now the leading pro-punter of horses in Britain and owns a large string of properties and racehorses as a result of his long established success.

Most of us though are mere mortals at this stage of life and tend to find our way by regular failures on the betting front. I remember still with a feeling of embarrassment getting my first ever "credit" account with William Hill in the 1990's and betting wildly between the odd politics lecture at university. The following summer was spent grafting in a number of positions to repay a rather large debt that was obviously accrued. (I blush everytime I see a lawnmower having cut more lawns in 8 weeks than most people do in a lifetime.)

Age 21-25

This is the beginning of a golden age in ones betting "career". The initial errors of the novice punter have been overcome, the temptation to chase any losses have hopefully eroded and one has hopefully gained experience in a certain field where specialising ensures that the opinion formed is a decent one. The importance of getting value becomes clear and the achievement of regular betting profits is within reach.

Personally this time in my life was slightly different as I became a bookmaker in my own right at the local greyhound stadium as well as betting fairly heavily on horse racing on the betting exchanges and with on-line layers. I recall with fondness these "hungry" years on both sides of the fence as one had very few responsibilties or distractions, and was totally focussed on finding an edge wherever possible. There was no magic formula for success, but just pure hard graft, watching videos (as they were then, no DVDs or rapid access to replays via downloads) and making endless notes on the run-styles/form/analysis of many thousands of horse and greyhound races. This gave me a fairly unique insight and being a layer at the course meant I had to be really on the ball to stay ahead of the game. If I ever made an error in pricing the on-course punters would very soon tell me in hard cash!

Age 26-30

A difficult time for all punters when life can sometimes compete with the abiltity to bet profitably. Many people settle down, buy property, have children etc etc and all these amazing things can have a negative effect on the ability to focus totally. Also having a growing career can mean time for betting professionally is at a premium.

I remember my typical day in my mid/late 20s was something of a whirlwind and now as I am a bit older I can't imagine how it was possible...

6am - Up and get ready for salaried job (senior trader with large spread-betting firm in London)

8am- 5pm - Price up and trade live the days main horse race meetings - (around 20 different markets)

5pm - Taxi across London to Paddington ....Train to Reading (on board price up next days horses)....Taxi to greyhound stadium.

7pm....Final pricing of dog card ....then price up and bet on 12 greyhound races with a staff of three (clerk, bagman, tictac to help...)

10.45pm...collect video of nights meeting and head home.....(via taxi if good night...train if not!)

11.45pm...Watch video and notes/analysis on all the runs.....price up card for next meeting to 100pc......

1.30am - sleep!

This was repeated everyday when there was a greyhound meeting (three a week) and was quite demanding.....but as I say these are the "hungry" years for all of us trying to win regularly.

Age 30-40

A testing time for all punters and a dangerous one at that where many can fall out of the game because other pressures. Most players have settled down but that brings with it a range of responsibiites, usually financial, that mean risk taking has added impact on other peoples lives and not just your own.

From my own perspective I had done well enough from betting to get the nice house, car etc and had a growing family and was very content in my early thirties. However I mentally "relaxed" into this great situation and eased off on the most important thing of all, putting the research and effort into maintaining an excellent opinion on the sports one is wagering on. This complacency is important to overcome rapidly as it has a huge negative effect on profits. The initial "hunger" and desire to win at betting has been quenched but it is essential that the level of punting is matched by an equal level of research, analysis and recording of bets. "Easing off" with the hard graft is a temptation that must be avoided, even at this busy time in most punters lives.

Age 40-70

A time in life I imagine being relatively settled. The area of betting expertise is firmly established and perhaps stakes are lowered with the desire to take chances reduced. Hopefully all the failings of chasing losses have gone and every price is hunted down to get the most valuable possible. Getting bets on is often the hardest problem with all account options used up with all the online layers and perhaps the middle aged punter has become solely reliant on the betting exchanges after his successes in the past.

Age 70-???

Betting is now a recreational pursuit as life slows down a bit! (I imagine.)

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

What type of punter are you?

The 5 Degrees of Losing a Bet

How to be a successful trader on Betfair

10 things you need to be a successful sports bettor

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/punting-through-lifes-journey

And we want you to be involved. If you have ever been curious about what the life of a player agent is like and what takes place during the mid-season transfer window, send us an email (andrew@bettingexpert.com) or Tweet us (@bettingexpert) and The Agent will tell us.

72 million pounds – that's a whole lot of money. It’s fair to assume that it's more than a decent yearly salary for every man walking this planet. In fact it's fair to assume it's more money than most of us will ever see in our lifetime. Nevertheless, it is the exact amount that was paid to player agents from the 20 Premier League clubs in England last season. In the coming months, I will give you all a rare view into this world, a world that is often associated with greed, mafia methods, double standards and immorality – yes – welcome to the world behind the curtain, welcome to the world The Agent.

Let me briefly introduce myself. I am a Scandinavian based player agent, and I am the co-owner of an agency that represents around 40 top players in Scandinavia, all of them playing at various clubs in a variety of different countries and leagues. I have never played any professional football myself, just always been a fan. Today I feel like a very privileged fan. Over the following months I will be giving you my view on different issues concerning the beautiful game of football, of course with a focus on what the beautiful game is like from the perspective of a player agent. Since we find ourselves in the middle of the January transfer-window, it's a great opportunity to discuss this very topic. But in the following months, I will also be giving you inside information on the life of an agent, how to become an agent and many subjects we all have an opinion on. Then at the beginning of February I will deliver a review on this current transfer window. I'm really looking forward to contributing my experiences to the BettingExpert Blog and am excited to enage with you, the readers as we navigate our way through the current transfer period and beyond.

The Transfer-Window and the agent

It’s Monday morning, just a day after the new year 2012 became a reality. I can still feel the limp grip of the hangover I inflicted on myself as I celebrated the coming of the new year. The alarm-clock says 07.30. The transfer-window is now wide open. In other words, despite the persevering hangover, I need to start working, I am already one day behind!

Luckily this is not my first transfer-window, actually it's my 15th as a “professional”. This experience is invaluable and I am very prepared for the frantic weeks ahead. Now that I have been through 15 transfer-windows, I can honestly say that this feels a little like playing football-manager on the computer. The main difference of course, is that you deal with real people, and you aren’t able to save the game and continue when you like. Or hit the reset button for that matter.

The Transfer-Window and the club

Back to the clock, it's now 08.00 and I am ready to get things moving. The blackberry has a full battery, synchronized with the calendar. I have my notes and task list in front of me and the destiny of 6 players and 6 clubs are in my hands. I have 30 days to make each of them happy.

From the club’s point of view it’s pretty standard what they are in the market for. The clubs fighting against relegation look for experienced players who can help them in this battle. Typically they want central players who are ready to take some responsibility, which will give the whole squad a little lift.

The clubs positioned in the middle of the league are only in the market for small adjustments, typically they will plan towards the next season and see if it’s possible to bring a couple of young prospects into the team for development. If they have players whose contracts expire in the summer, they might want to bring in their replacements immediately, to be sure that they have 6 months to adapt. Especially with players who come from a different culture.

The clubs fighting for trophies and European spots are the clubs that are ready to open their wallets, and hire a guy like me to find the player that can bring them a gold medal, or one of the very attractive league positions that will deliver them entry to either the Champions League or Europa. In the smaller countries these positions are a key for long term success, as it secures them a proportional very high income. Typically it’s a very strong centreback with leadership abilities, or the classical box-striker, who’s good for 10-15 goals the next 15-20 matches.

After 8-10 matches of the season, you often get the impression of which type of players you want to bring to a club in January. One of my very good contacts outside of Scandinavia, told me they were desperate for a goalscoring target-man, whose qualities should be in the penalty area. In our world, we call it a number 9. I have dealt with this club a couple of times before, so I already know about their financial situation. They are able to pay a decent salary and a transfer-fee if necessary. During the season I had proposed three number 9’s to them, however the club regarded none of them as possessing the quality they were looking for. As I am still engaged with the club in solving this issue, I have determined that this is one of my top priorities in this transfer-window, and it is certainly something I hope to solve. I need the commission to pay my bills, but most of all, I don’t want to ruin this good relationship between myself and the club.

The Transfer-window and the player

Obviously, this is just one issue of many for me. I am also under pressure from one of my most important clients, who also happens to be one of my best friends. Actually this guy helped me into this business, and we have stuck together ever since. He is a fantastic player with a very good resume. Unfortunately however, he went down with an injury at the beginning of the season. His contract expires in the summer, and I wouldn’t want anything more, than to give him an improved contract with a new club as a late Christmas present.

Just before Christmas, his current club gave us permission to talk to other clubs. They were not interested in extending his contract. I contacted many clubs who were looking to strengthen their squad in his position. One club was especially positive about him. My client and best friend was ecstatic about this opportunity and was really looking forward to meeting the manager and negotiating terms. Unfortunately they called us the day before Christmas, telling us they wanted to go with another player. My friend was obviously very frustrated, and as his manager, I can feel he sees myself as partly responsible for this disappointment. When you become too attached to your players as an agent, this is sometimes the consequence. As his friend, agent and adviser I need to take a certain responsibility and stay positive on his behalf. Unfortunately his situation is a difficult one due to his injury, combined with today's market. I really hope to find a club in my network that will sign him, otherwise the outlook for him could be grim. Perhaps for our friendship too.

Exciting days ahead

As you can see I have some very exciting weeks ahead of me, but likewise some very challenging ones. I look forward to sharing more of my experiences on the BettingExpert Blog as the transfer-window proceeds and receiving your questions. It's certainly an intriguing and demanding time of year.

Do you have a question for The Agent? Get involved and email us (andrew@bettingexpert.com) or contact Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

Follow The Agent on Twitter : @_The_Agent_

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Sports documentaries you probably haven't seen but definately should

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

The 5 Degrees of Losing a Bet

How often do clubs come from behind at halftime in the Premier League?

A Betting Community for the Future

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/a-player-agents-view-of-the-transfer-window

If you would like to contribute articles to our blog, contact Andrew at his email : andrew@bettingexpert.com

Season 2011-2012 is turning out to be a compelling contest in the Championship. It is highly competitive, and interesting because the four main contenders come from diverse recent histories.

Promoted Southampton have been setting the pace since the opening weeks with their dominant home form ensuring a steady flow of points. West Ham were relegated from the Championship, and Sam Allardyce has assembled a squad that he feels is strong enough to bounce back at the first attempt. Cardiff are mounting a customary challenge having finished fourth in 2010 and 2011, while Middlesbrough’s title bid comes after two mid-table seasons in the division.

The Odds

After 26 rounds of fixtures just two points separate these four clubs, but the bookmakers have taken quite polarized views of the likely finishing positions. West Ham (47 points) are best priced 11/8 and appear to be strong favourites. Southampton (also 47 points) come next at 11/4, with Cardiff and Middlesbrough (both 45 points) at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Of the remainder, Reading are best priced at a dismissive 28/1.

Table 1 - League Points & Title Odds

Home & Away form in recent history

Looking back over the past five seasons of automatically promoted clubs from the Championship, the average points return from playing home or away at top-third, middle-third and bottom-third are given in table 2. These point expectations are an average of those successful ten clubs, and will include the results of run-away leaders. As such, applying the formulae to this year’s top-four will lead to high estimates of final point tallies. It is, however, a useful tool in comparing the quality of fixtures remaining for each club.

Table 2 - Points expectancy of automatically promoted clubs against various opposition since 2006

What table 2 shows, is that automatically promoted clubs (first and second in the final table) average a greater point return the weaker the opposition. There is nothing startling here, although it is interesting to understand where points are likely to be won. Where this information is useful, it can be applied to the current table and remaining fixtures for each of West Ham, Southampton, Cardiff and Middlesbrough.

Table 3 represents a projection of the final league table if all four clubs maintain the form of an automatically promoted club.

Table 3 - Final league table if all challengers maintain top-two form

Table 3 shows just how close the final league table might be. Just 1.8 points separate the four based on the quality of remaining fixtures for each team. Therefore it seems remarkable that West Ham and Southampton take up so much of the book in the betting.

In reality, you can’t actually win 1.41 points when visiting a fellow top-eight club – you either get 0, 1 or 3. This is where the impact of actual results can cause large swings in the title odds. For example, when Southampton lost at home to Bristol City recently, it was hugely expensive for their final points expectancy. They had been allocated 2.37 points pre-match and they returned with none. Therefore this caused a significant drop in their expected final total.

Similarly, losing at home to a rival can cause significant swings. When Cardiff (expecting 1.8 points) lost at home to Middlesbrough (expecting 1.41 points), there was a 3.39 point swing in favour of Mowbray’s team (1.8 + 1.59).

Key upcoming fixtures

The importance of these head-to-heads should not be over-stated, but the following fixtures will have a large bearing on the eventual title winners:

Southampton: Cardiff (H), West Ham (A), Middlesbrough (A)

West Ham: Southampton (H), Middlesbrough (H), Cardiff (A)

Cardiff: West Ham (H), Southampton (A), Middlesbrough (A)

Middlesbrough: Southampton (H), Cardiff (H), West Ham (A)

For example, if Middlesbrough achieve a draw at West Ham in March, then they will actually gain a 0.39 points expectancy (1.8-1.41) over the Hammers, although they will lost 0.41 points relative to Southampton and Cardiff.

The close finish predicted in table 3 only works if all clubs maintain top-two form over the remaining 21 league fixtures. Recent form suggests Southampton might struggle to maintain that, and could well see their final points expectancy fall away. They rely heavily on Ricky Lambert, and one man can not carry a team to the title.

West Ham have won only two of their last six and appear to be underpriced in the title odds. They have an experienced and powerful side, but every match in this league is a battle and I’m not convinced they deserve over 40% of the market.

Cardiff have to be more convincing on the road. Four wins from thirteen fixtures is a meagre return – only three clubs in the top-half of the Championship have fewer than that.

Middlesbrough have dropped seventeen home points from thirteen fixtures, and would surely be clear at the top if draws could be turned into wins. A New Year priority for Mowbray will be getting Boro to dominate at the Riverside.

Where is the value?

In conclusion, I suspect Southampton may well fall away from the leading pack, and West Ham are too short in the market to warrant an investment. Cardiff may well push on at attractive odds, but I worry about their strength on the road. Middlesbrough are the most likely to improve their record. Putting together a string of home victories could draw them clear at the top of the table, and at 8/1 they appear reasonable win and each-way value (1/5 the odds first three places).

Recommendations

Middlesbrough to win each-way at 8/1

Cardiff to win at 7/1

Visit Manchild's BettingExpert profile page to see his latest musings, opinions and tips

And you can follow Manchild on Twitter at @Manchild500

If you would like to contribute articles of your own betting analysis, strategy and philosophy for the BettingExpert Blog, send them to Andrew at andrew at bettingexpert.com.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

The Top 10 Biggest Upsets in the last decade of football

When is the 1st goal scored in the Premier League?

What are the key numbers in NFL betting?

The increasing number of short-priced favourites in football

How often do football games end without a goal scored?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/who-will-win-the-championship-in-2011-2012

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

With the NFL playoffs upon us, Andrew delivers some interesting, possibly useful if not obscure historical NFL betting facts.

Fact 1

Since season 2000, playoff teams that covered the line 7 times or less during the regular season, are 12-22-1 against the line in the playoffs. Further than that, teams in this category that won 10 games or fewer, are 7-18-1 against the line in the playoffs.

Fact 2

Since 2000, playoffs teams that covered the line 11 or more times during the regular season, are 15-20-1 in the playoffs. Further than that, teams in this category that won 12 or more games are 6-15 against the line in the playoffs.

Fact 3

Since 1980, home teams have covered the line in just under 55% of playoff games played, with NFC home clubs covering 58% of the time, while AFC clubs covered 51% of the time. But since 2001, overall home teams have covered just 46% of playoff games played with home clubs in both conferences covering at the same rate.

Fact 4

Since 1980, there have been 3 playoff games where a club started favourites of more than 14 points. The favourite covered the line each time, with the biggest line of -19 covered by the 49ers in their SuperBowl victory over San Diego.

Fact 5

Since 1986 there have been 8 playoff games where the Over/Under line was 54 points or higher. The game went over in 6 of those games. During that same span, 10 playoff games have started with a total of 33 points or less. 7 of those 10 games went over.

Fact 6

Since 1980, playoff clubs that are playing away have covered the line 38-30-2 when they failed to cover the line in their previous game, but 100-138-3 when they did cover the line in their previous game.

Fact 7

Since 1980, home playoff underdogs are 19-11 against the line. The biggest home playoff underdog since 1980 was Seattle last season, home dogs of +10 against New Orleans. The second biggest was New Orleans +5.5 underdogs against the Rams in 2000. Both underdogs won their games outright.

Fact 8

The Washington Redskins have been the best team against line in the playoffs since 1980, with a 19-7 record against the line, just ahead of the rival New York Giants 19-8, giving the NFC East the best divisional record of 70-47 against the line. The worst playoff record against the line goes to Kansas City, 2-12 since 1980, with the NFC South going 19-30 against the line to hold the worst division record since 1980.

Fact 9

Since 1980, home teams going into playoff games on a 8 game or more outright winning streak, are 9-20 against the line. On the other hand, home playoff clubs coming into a playoff game on a 2 game or more losing streak are 12-4 against the line.

Fact 10

Since 1980, away playoff teams that failed to cover the line for 2 or more consecutive weeks, are 16-9-1 against the line, while away playoff clubs that covered the line for 6 or more consecutive weeks were 4-8-1 against the line.

Fact 11

Since 1980, home playoff clubs that covered the line for 4 or more consecutive weeks are 22-14-1 against the line, while home playoff clubs that failed to cover the line for 2 or more consecutive weeks are 30-20 against the line.

Fact 12

Since 1980, home playoff clubs are 38-22 against the line when coming into their playoff game off a loss of 3 points or more, but are just 29-27-1 coming into a home playoff game off a win or 22 points or more.

Fact 13

Since 1980, away playoff clubs are 33-49-1 coming into their playoff game off a win of 17 points or more, and are 2-11 against the line coming into their away playoff game off a loss of 13 points or more.

Fact 14

Since 1980, when the home club entered the game on a streak of 3 or more games going Over, their playoff game went Over in 16-12. But when an away entered a playoff game on a streak of 3 or more games going Over, the playoff game went Under in just 19-12. When a home playoff team entered a playoff on a streak of 4 or more games going Under, the game went Under 9-5. But when an away club entered a playoff game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive games going Under, the game went Over 14-7.

Fact 15

Since 1994, when a home playoff club played away in their previous game, they are 40-29-1 against the line. They are 57-57-3 when playing at home in their previous game.

Fact 16

Despite the success of home playoff teams since 1980, when they have been favoured between -3 and -6, they have covered the line 63-63-3. Outside of this range, home playoff clubs are 115-81-2, or just under 59%.

Fact 17

When away playoff clubs have come off an underdog home win, since 1980 they are just 1-12 against the line in the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds.

Fact 18

Since 1980, home teams in Conference Championships are 35-27 overall against the line, but are 29-19 when coming off a Divisional round victory in which they covered the line.

Fact 19

On the other hand, away clubs in Conference Championships are 21-33 against the line when they covered the line in the Divisional round win, and 5-2 when they failed to cover.

Fact 20

Favourites in the SuperBowl are 0-3-1 against the line when they failed to cover the line in their Conference Championship victory since 1980, while through the same span, underdogs are 2-1 against the line when they failed to cover the line in their Conference victory.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Warm weather NFL teams going cold late in the season

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

Do west coast NFL teams under perform when travelling east?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

How Archie Karas gambled $50 into $40million and lost it all

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/20-nfl-playoff-betting-facts

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

The Australian Open isn't far away now. Where has the value been in the women's tournament in recent years? Have favourites performed well? Today on the Blog Andrew takes a look.

It's only a couple of weeks before the Australian Open commences at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne. A couple of months ago I broke down the numbers for the men's tournament. Today I will take a look at the women's tournament. We will look at the last 5 tournaments and see where the bookmakers got it right, where they got it wrong and provide you with some numbers to keep in mind when placing your bets in the 2012 tournament.

So let's begin.

1st Round

So let's start by looking at how the 1st round of the women's draw has played out over the previous 5 tournaments, dating back to 2006. We will be assessing a range of odds categories using 'even stakes' to see how each has performed in terms of profit, loss and overall return.

Above we can see that had you bet a single unit on each underdog in the 1st round coming up against a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.25 in the first round the last 10 tournaments, you would have come away with a combined loss of 43% on your investment. Favourites in this price range have performed well in the 1st round, though at even stakes making only a small profit.

We find a different result when we consider favourites priced between 1.26 and 1.90 over the last 5 tournaments. Had you bet against such favourites, you would have come away with an 'even stakes' profit of over 7% over a sample size of 182 matches.

2nd Round

In the 2nd round we see a similar story for very short priced favourites between 1.01 and 1.25. While betting on them at 'even stakes' would have given you a slight loss, betting against them would have left you with a combined loss of over 34%.

Also worth noting is that favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 were profitable in the 2nd round where they weren't in the 1st. In round 2 over the last 5 women's tournaments, betting on them at 'even stakes' would have seen you come away with a profit of over 5% from 31 matches played.

3rd Round

Round 3 we see underdogs bounce back. The majority of games in the 3rd round, about 85% were games that started with a favourite of 1.50 or less.

Betting at 'even stakes' against favourites priced between 1.11 and 1.72 over the last 5 years would have seen you come away with a profitable return of 13%. A very handsome number. Further, only once was a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.10 been defeated in the 3rd round of the women's tournament over the last 5 years.

It should also be noted that while underdogs in matches with the favourite starting between odds of 1.73 and 1.90 brought a profit of 80%, this number is the result of just 1 match played.

4th Round

As we saw with the men's tournament, the results in the 4th round have been a little inconsistent.

There isn't too much we can take away from round 4 results. Favourites and underdogs have generally split the profitability. Over the last 5 women's tournaments, favourites have won 75% of 4th round matches played.

The Finals

We can see that favourites have performed reasonably well when priced between 1.01 and 1.50. Betting at 'even stakes' on these favourites from the Quarter-Final stage onwards, would have seen you take away a profit of 11% the last 5 women's tournaments.

Also to note that while favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90, have performed poorly throughout the finals, this result came from a sample size of 10 matches.

Games per match

Let's now have a look at the median number of games it took to complete matches given different odds ranges and results.

Overall we can see an expected progression through each odds range up until the range of 1.73 to 1.90. When favourites between odds of 1.01 and 1.10 have won, the median result was 18 games, while when they were defeated, it took the underdog around 28 games to secure the upset victory.

Sets per match.

Lastly, let's look at how many sets we might expect to see given various odds ranges and results.

Above we can see the occurrence for each result when favourites win. We see that the chances of a match ending in a 2-0 sweep diminshes steadily up until until the 1.73 to 1.90 range .

Above we can see the occurrence rates when underdogs win. We can see a steady and expected increase in the probability of a match ending 2 set to none as we approach 'even money'.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Who wins the deciding set in a mens tennis match?

Australian Open Men's Betting Analysis

When is the 1st goal scored in the Premier League?

How do Champions League matches impact domestic form?

Sports documentaries you probably haven't seen but really should

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/australian-open-tennis-womens-betting-analysis

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Where does Blackburn's shock win over Manchester United rank in terms of the greatest upsets of alltime? Today Andrew lists the top 10 upsets in the major leagues of European football since the year 2000.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article listing the biggest upset results in the Premier League during the Christmas period of the last 10 seasons. It can be the silly season where the unexpected can happen.......but I don't think anybody saw anything of the magnitude of Blackburn's seismic victory of United on New Years Eve.

But where does it rank with the greatest upsets of the last 10 seasons in the top flight of major European football leagues?

Well, here's the top 10 biggest shocks since the year 2000.

Barcelona 0 v Hercules 2 - 11th September 2010

Hercules would visit defending Primera champions Barcelona as rank outsiders in the range of 25-1. And thanks to a double from Haedo Valdez, who scored in the 26th minute and then again in the 59th they would cause the biggest upset in the last 10 seasons. Unfortunately it would be of little assistance as Hercules would go on to end the season relegated in 19th place while Barcelona would once again claim the title.

Manchester United 2 v Blackburn 3 - 31st December 2011

The upset of the decade in the Premier League. Blackburn who started the match as 19-1 underdogs, would take a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford before two second half United goals from Berbatov would see United level the game at 2-2. However, an 80th minute Hanley goal for Blackburn would see them hold on for the win and encourage hopes of avoding relegation in season 2011/2012.

Milan 1 v Messina 2 - 22nd September 2004

Milan would enter this early season Serie A fixure in 4th position just ahead of their opponents Messina in 5th. As underdogs in the realm of 15-1, Messina would fall behind before quickly responding twice early in the 2nd half. They would hold on to record the biggest Serie A upset in the last 10 seasons. Milan would end the season in 2nd place while Messina would finish in 7th position.

Milan 0 v Empoli 1 - 21st October 2007

Empoli would start this away fixture at Milan as 15-1 underdogs in 18th position on the table, while Milan would find themselves in 9th position with just two wins from 7 matches. There would be only one goal as Saudati would score for Empoli in the 55th minute giving the visitors a 1-0 victory. However, the victory would not keep Empoli from relegation, finishing the season in 18th position on the table.

Arsenal 1 v Hull 2 - 27th September 2008

Hull would visit the 1st placed Arsenal as underdogs in the range of 15-1. After going behind due to a 51st minute own goal, Hull would strike back scoring twice within 4 minutes with a Geovanni goal in the 62nd minute followed by 66th goal to Cousins. The win would prove crucial as Hull went on to defy relegation by 1pt while Arsenal would finish the season in 4th position on the table.

Manchester United 1 v Bolton 2 - 20th October 2001

United in 3rd position on the table would host a Bolton club that were 3-3-3 from 9 games to start the season. Bolton would start underdogs in the range of 13-1 but end the day with one the biggest upsets in the last 10 seasons. United would end the season in 3rd place while Bolton would survive relegation by 4pts in 16th position.

Ajax 0 v Den Haag 1 - 7th November 2010

Den Haag would enter this away fixture as 13-1 underdogs in 10th position on the table. Hosts Ajax entering the match in 3rd place would conceed to the visitors in the 44th minute and would be unable to respond, losing 0-1. The loss would not deny Ajax another league crown while Den Haag would finish the season in 7th position.

Inter 0 v Empoli 1 - 18th January 2004

Empoli earn their second entry on our list with this victory over Inter in January of 2004. Starting as underdogs of 12-1, a late goal from Tammaso in the 89th minute would secure victory for the visitors. However, they would go on to finish the season in 17th position while Inter would complete the year in 4th position on the table.

Levante 1 v Real Madrid 0 - 18th September 2011

Madrid would go into the away fixture with 2 wins from their opening 2 matches of the season. Hosts Levante has secured 2 draws from their opening fixtures and would start underdogs of 11-1. Managing to hold their highly fancied visitors, Levante would score thanks to Kone in the 68th minute. They would go on to win 1-0 in one of the biggest upsets this decade in the Primera.

Bayern Munich 0 v Borussia M'gladbach 1 - 7th August 2011

Munich would enter this opening match of the season as highly fancied favourites. M'gladbach would start at odds of 11-1 and would manage a 1-0 victory thanks to a De Camargo goal in the 62nd minute. Bayern would recover to hold 1st place on the table by the end of 2011 while their upstart opponents sit in 4th as we enter 2012.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

When do upsets happen in the Premier League?

What happens after a shock result in the Premier League?

How do Champions League fixtures impact on domestic form?

A brief history of Christmas miracles in the Premier League

When is the 1st goal scored in the Premier League?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/what-are-the-biggest-upsets-in-soccer-history

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

What sports documentaries should you put on your things-to-watch list? What sports docos haven't you heard of but are must sees? Today Andrew looks at some of the best sports documentaries out there, that are perhaps not as widly known as others.

This is a list of sports documentaries you should see.

But no, it's not a list of all the typical sports documentary favourites you'll see on any number of "10 Best Sports Doco" lists all across the web. Yes, When We Were Kings is a great work. And Hoop Dreams is a masterpiece. Oh, and yes Ken Burns' Baseball is epic. But we all know this. We've seen them. We love them. They're classics.

But maybe you're wondering what else it out there. What other lesser known sports documentaries should you see that are just as worthy of viewing as those regularly mentioned greats?

If you have ever asked that question, then this is the list for you.

ASSAULT IN THE RING (also titled CORNERED)

This heartbreaking and powerful 2009 documentary from HBO looks at the controversial boxing bout between Billy Collins Jnr and Luis Resto that took place at Madison Square Garden on June 16, 1983. Resto defeated the highly favoured Collins in a 10 round unanimous decision. Following the fight however, it was discovered that missing from Resto's gloves was one-third of the padding. This tampering allowed Resto to inflict a near bare knuckle beating on his opponent and would ultimately land both Resto and his trainer in prison, while Collins, unable to box again, would suffer only further torments. While initially denying any knowledge of the tampered gloves, through the documentary, Resto attempts to come to terms with his demons, making an admission that would see him travel through numerous U.S cities and states, approaching both members of his own family and the family of Collins, seeking forgiveness. A must see.

Watch the Assault in the Ring promo clip.

HARVARD BEATS YALE 29-29

This 2008 documentary from Kevin Rafferty looks at the 1968 football game between rival colleges Harvard and Yale. While both teams entered the match undefeated, Yale were expected to come away with a comfortable victory. What transpired was truly amazing as the underdog Harvard team not only overcame a 0-22 start, but came back from a 13-29 deficit with just a minute to play. The game would end in a 29-29 tie. Regardless, the Harvard newspaper would run with the now famous headline 'Harvard Beats Yale 29-29'. The doco is a fantastic blend of interviews with 30 of the players who competed that day with actual game footage.

Watch the Harvard beats Yale 29-29 promo clip.

BLACK MAGIC

Narrated by Samuel L Jackson and jazz musician Wynton Marsalis, this documentary takes a look at the Civil Rights Movement in America through the eyes and stories of basketballers of the era, who stood up to and triumphed over violence, persecution and prejudice. Many greats of the game are featured including Willis Reed, Charles Oakley, Bob Love and Avery Johnson to name a few. You'll find yourself absorbed by the moving and profound tales of defiance and courage told in this documentary. Whether you're a sports fan, history buff or both, you'll want to take the time to appreciate every moment of Black Magic.

Watch the Black Magic promo clip.

A LEAGUE OF ORDINARY GENTLEMEN

If you think a doco about a bunch of middle aged men attempting to rejuvenate public interest in ten pin bowling would be boring, you'd be wrong. This 2004 documentary from film-maker Christopher Browne takes a look at the decline of the Professional Bowling Association from it's height of popularity in the 1950s and 60s through it's tumultuous period of the late 90s where it almost ceased to exist. The film follows four professional bowlers of varying character and talent as well as PBA CEO Steve Miller as he sets about attempting to rebuild the PBA's popularity, modernising what many would consider to be a casual past-time rather than a professional sport worthy of broad attention.

Watch A League of Ordinary Gentlemen on Youtube.

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO MICHAEL RAY?

Narrated by Chris Rock, this intriguing doco takes a look at the career of basketballer Michael Ray Richardson. Drafted by the New York Knicks with the 4th selection in the 1978 NBA Draft from the University of Montana, the obscure but talented Richardson would make a blinding ascent to stardom becoming an all-star in just his second season in the league, earning comparisons to not only former Knick great Walt Frazier but to then young point guard, “Magic” Johnson. Following another all-star appearance a season later, the Knicks would trade Richardson's two closest team-mates. This event, along with others of a similar nature would bring the career of the sensitive and fragile Richardson off the rails, as his relationship with drugs graduated from recreational to one of addiction. After numerous and unsuccessful trips to rehab coupled with multiple league suspensions, his volatile lifestyle would ultimately see Richardson given a life ban from the league.

Visit Whatever happened to Michael Ray official site

RING OF FIRE – THE EMILE GRIFFITH STORY

Ring of Fire is an great work that looks at the life of boxer Emile Griffith who in a keenly anticipated world title bout in 1962 beat Benny “Kid” Paret to death live on national television while millions watched on in disbelief. Prior to the bout Paret had made taunts to his rival concerning his alleged homosexuality. A powerful and intoxicating documentary doesn't let you out of its grasp all the way to the incredibly moving climax as the ageing Griffith meets the adult son of the late Benny Paret.

Watch Ring of Fire on Youtube.

YEAR OF THE DOGS

You don't need to know anything about Australian Rules Football to enjoy this doco. Follow the Footscray Football Club of the Australian Football League during the 1996 season as both the club and league make the turbulent transition from the semi-professional to professional era. The club loses game after game. The coach gets fired mid-season. The club's future hangs precariously in the balance as financial stresses build. The league is out to enforce a merger of smaller clubs with the Bulldogs on their hit list. It's all a bit of a mess but it's as endearing as it is enthralling. Follow the players, the fans and club administrators in this intimate behind the scenes tell-all.

Watch a clip from Year of the Dogs.

THE HEART OF THE GAME

Who said women's basketball is boring? This 2005 documentary by Ward Serrill looks at the Roosevelt Roughriders girls basketball team, in particular focusing on their star player Darnellia Russell and coach Bill Resler. Very much a human drama, the film-maker follows the successive failures of the team to win the state championship, with the African-American Russell the star player in the predominantly white school. As Russell begins to attract interest from a number of big colleges, she falls pregnant to her boyfriend and leaves school. Returning to school after giving birth to her child, Russell finds herself banned from competitive high school basketball by the state athletic authority due to a technical eligibility ruling. Defying the ban, Russell and the Roughriders continue to play on as they attempt to win the school's first state championship.

Visit The Heart of the Game official site

THE VIOLENT WORLD OF SAM HUFF

Narrated by Walter Cronkite, this episode of the 1960 CBS TV series The Twentieth Century looks at the life of NFL linebacker Sam Huff. As one of the more ferocious middle linebackers of the time and NFL history, this hour long documentary shows us just how tough life was for an NFL player in that era. Wired with a mic at practise and also an exhibition game, we follow Huff as he talks about his career, philosophies and approach to the game. It's not quite NFL Films Presents, but ground breaking for its day and well worth hunting down.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

What are the top 5 football podcasts?

How to deal with a losing run in betting

The 5 Degrees of Losing a Bet

Three books about betting you need to read

What are the best websites for golf statistics?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/sports-documentaries-you-should-see

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

Anybody who has been around a betting shop, a racetrack or a sports bar knows that punters come in many different styles and attitudes. Today on the blog, our racing analyst Stephen takes a look at every shade of punter. Which are you?

Punters come in all shapes and sizes and play in an incredible number of different ways. Down the years, as both an on-course bookmaker and working in a trading room for online layers, I have seen and met many of these unique breeds and been one myself since college.

Which one are you?

1- THE ARBER

The scourge of the online industry, arbers are not tolerated at all and any sniff of an arb leads to accounts being severely limited. The arber is content to grind out tiny miniscule profits using betting exchanges and online firms to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. Traders find that all "arbing" accounts show a small profit on turnover over time and for this reason clamp down on these punters more harshly than any other.

2- THE PRO-PUNTER

The fastest growing breed of punter given the internet age has provided so many opportunites to find value in a vast number of areas. So many young professionals have come and gone in recent years, often "between" jobs either in the betting industry or having had experience in the financial sector and believing they can go it alone. The survivors are those that specialise in certain areas of expertise and can avoid the common pitfalls that many encounter when suffering losing runs and losses of confidence. The most successful in this sphere in recent years has been Pat Veitch, who has used military planning to execute his business on a daily basis and is rightly feared across the industry.

3-THE TRADER

The trader tries to read the way the betting market is moving and take positions with little interest in the final outcome but intent on locking in a profit. They are best compared with stock market traders, buying and selling shares at levels which they believe will soon become advantageous. Traders have suffered many blows in the past year or so, with declining liquidity on the betting exchanges and also crippling new "premium" charges on those who avoid any loss risking positions. Many who start as traders often fail to trade out when the market moves against them and end up becoming gamblers before returning to the job market (which they also find has moved against them!!). Sharp traders however work the angles, using analysis of in-play and long-term market tendancies to keep one step ahead. While maintaining investment discipline they are able to succeed in field that an increasing number of punters are trying their hand at.

4-THE "IN RUNNING" PUNTER

A small group enjoyed huge successes with the advent of betfair in the late nineties and early 2000's. They rapidly realised that the "live" pictures relayed via the racing channels were in fact many seconds behind "real" time, and stationed themselves at courses/stadiums where they could trade the sport via laptops/mobiles. They made vast sums betting winners that had already won or laying fallers that had already fell, or got themselves great value betting horses that were going best turning for home while those indoors felt the race was still developing. This opportunity has become far far tougher in recent times, with widespread awareness of this delay meaning that liquidity is very low especially towards the closing stages. As with all "good things" it has come to an end and those left playing "in running" tend to be excellent judges who would be winners regardless of any time advantage over the regular punter.

4-THE BETTING SHOP PUNTER

A dying breed of cash punter who tend to bet in accumulators most days for an "interest". These punters, usually of an older generation in Britain, are not price sensitive at all and bet purely for the excitement rather than any long term prospect of winning. They are the off-course industries bread and butter and have oiled the cogs of horse racing for many decades. Some shrewder punters have found betting in cash is often a way of slipping under the radar and "getting on" bets that online would see them severely limited. However, managers of the shops are now firmly aware of this, and are under strict orders to "phone in" any wagers above a certain amount to the trading office.

5- THE FEARLESS BIG HITTER

These "whales" play in huge size and tend to come in a blaze of glory and leave with their tales firmly between their legs. Some have however stayed the trip. In Britain, Harry Findlay, JP McManus, and Michael Tabor are three high profile huge players who bet firmly to their own opinion and have enjoyed considerable success over a number of decades. When they play a wave can be felt rippling through the off-course betting jungle as people attempt to follow in their bets. In the past "commision" agents have handled this business and filtered it into the industry in a wide array of ways, charging up to three per cent for the privelege! This has rather withered in recent years as the betting exchanges have made it possible to play easily in far bigger size, without having to spread the money around.

6-THE CHASER "ON TILT"

A trait of many of us punters, and the main cause of why some very decent judges of their chosen area of expertise to fail to win overall. This "chasing" mentality is something we must all try and overcome, and it is completely irrational. Many punters are in complete control of their betting and level of staking when they are winning, but as soon as they fall behind on the day, or something unexpected and unfortunate happens, i.e a horse falls at the last when 20 lengths clear that you have had a big bet on, then a "red-mist" descends and they chase those losses, playing in far bigger size than normal as they desperately try to recoup. A former colleague of mine was a classic example of this. He played on football in running, usually laying the "overs" on corners/goals etc etc and was a very good judge of the exact price things should be. If confined every year to playing solely on that he would readily win thirty or forty thousand pounds a year. However, when a late goal or two went in and it meant he lost on that match, he lost all control and would "tilt", immediately trying to win back todays losses by either laying a horse, betting a rugby team, or basically ANYTHING that was on in the next ten minutes. The huge advantage a successful punter has is he can choose his fights, where a layer has to bet on everything. When that discipline goes the layer suddenly holds all the aces, and usually all the money.

7- THE TIPPING LINE PUNTER

These punters behave in a "sheepish" manner and usually end up getting very poor value for their cash, even if they latch on to a successful tipping line at an early stage. Firms get alerted to followers of a certain tipsters as punters appear on their bet "scroller" in sudden waves, all trying to bet the same horse or team. They can swiftly get these accounts limited and cut the price rapidly. Usually the followers are not price sensitive and will accept a shorter and shorter price as they believe the "inside info" they are getting is red-hot and causing the price to crash. Usually these tipping lines, such as Isiris, charge vast sums to their subscribers and tend to reinvent themselves several times over the years to try and entice people in.

Which are you?

Of course many of us are a combination of the above at various stages of our betting "careers" and things often change as our personal circumstances alter as we get older. All of us aspire to bet in a professional manner and learning from others is a massive part of this. Some of the excellent advice provided by BettingExpert can be invaluable in the ongoing pursuit of victory over the old enemy.

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

The 5 Degrees of Losing a Bet

How to be a successful trader on Betfair

10 things you need to be a successful sports bettor

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

3 betting books all punters should read

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/which-type-of-punter-are-you

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

What are some of the biggest shock results during the Christmas period in the Premier League since the year 2000? Today on the blog Andrew looks at some of the Christmas miracles of recent seasons.

As we approach the Christmas period, in which we will see 40 matches in the Premier League played between December 21st and the 5th of January, I thought I would take a look back at ghosts of Christmas past. Full of festive spirit, it's a great opportunity to take a look back at the biggest upsets for the Christmas Day to New Years Day period since the year 2000.

Oh, and merry Christmas to all our readers. Thanks for your support throughout the year. It's been a great year for BettingExpert and a great year for our Blog.

Chelsea 2 v Southampton 4 - January 1st 2002

Southampton entered this match on New Years Day 2002 in 17th position on the table with just 19pts from 19 games played and goal difference seperating them from the drop zone. As underdogs paying just over odds of 10.00 they squared off against a Chelsea club in 6th position, 6pts off the pace of 1st placed Arsenal. With just 3 losses for the season, having won 3 of their previous 4 matches, they were paying a slim 1.38 for the win.

Down 2-1 at the half, Southampton put 3 second half goals on a Chelsea defense that had allowed just 7 goals at Stamford Bridge previous to the match. In the 73rd minute, James Beattie posted his second goal for the match, bookending his opening goal from the 7th minute, to give Southampton a 4-2 upset win. A great way to start the new year, a year that would see Southampton recover to finish in 11th place while Chelsea finished in 6th.

Liverpool 0 v Wolverhampton 1 - December 29th 2010

Wolves entered this difficult task at Anfield in 20th position, 4pts and 9 goals off safety. Heading into the match as underdogs of a little over 10.00, they took on a Liverpool club with problems of their own. In 11th place and a long way from contention for Champions League qualification, Liverpool had collected just 22pts from their first 17 games of the season. But still they came into the match as 1.33 favourites.

Having won at Anfield just once in the previous 60 seasons, Wolves took the lead in the 56th minute when Stephen Ward made a shakey Liverpool defense appear less than professional, unable to clear a bouncing ball twice before allowing Ward to take an easy pass through to put Wolves up 1-0. 30 minutes later, Anfield would descend into a sea of boos as Liverpool found themselves just 5pts clear of last place suffering yet another loss. Meanwhile for Wolves, the win would ultimately mean the difference between another season in the Premiership and relegation, as they avoid the drop by just 1pt to Birmingham.

Leicester City 1 v Bradford City 2 - January 1st 2001

While Manchester United had a commanding 8pt lead over Arsenal, Leicester found themselves just 4pts behind the 2nd placed Gunners as they hosted what seemed to be an easy 3pts on New Years Day 2001 against last placed Bradford City, themselves 8pts below safety with much work to do in the second half of the season. As 1.45 favourites, Leicester fans would have been expecting to consolodate a place at the top end of the table.

But the underdogs of over 9.00 from Braford got off to a fast start, scoring twice within 5 minutes as Aberdeen loan Eoin Jess scored in the 25th minute before Wayne Jacons followed in the 30th. But Muzzy Izzet would take full advantage of a penalty opportunity in the 38th minute, bringing Leicester a goal back. But that's where it would stay as Bradford went on to record what was at the time, a shock result. Both clubs would struggled through the second half of the season, as Leicester fell to finish in 13th place while Bradford was eventually relegated a full 16pts below safety.

West Ham 2 v Manchester United 1 - December 29th 2007

Man United entered this match top of the table as away favourites of 1.50, a point clear of second placed Arsenal while West Ham were middle of the table in 10th position, 10 pts off a top 4 spot and 12pts from the drop zone. As home underdogs of 7.00, few would have thought the Hammers could cause a post-Christmas upset.

But what followed had to be seen to be believed. Man United took the lead early with a Christiano Rinaldo goal in the 14th minute. And Rinaldo looked set to put the match beyond much doubt with a 68th minute penalty shot. But he would miss and the home club would take full advantage. Anton Ferdinand would score for West Ham in the 77th minute. Not satisfied with a draw, the home club would maintain their attack. In the 82nd minute it paid dividends as a Matthew Upson header gave West Ham a lead they would not surrender.

Man United would go on to claim yet another Premier League crown, taking 1st place by 2pts from Chelsea while West Ham would remain in 10th place, with 49pts for the season.

Sheffield United 1 v Arsenal 0 - December 30th 2006

Sheffield United entered their late December home fixture with Arsenal in 17th place as 6.60 underdogs, 2pts clear of the drop zone while the Gunners came in as 1.50 favourites in 3rd place, but a full 10pts behind 2nd placed Chelsea and 14pts behind 1st placed Manchester United.

As halftime approached, the Blades took the lead thanks to a Christian Nade goal in the 41st minute, his first for Sheffield United. It was a lead Sheffield United would not concede despite suffering a run of injuries that would leave Phil Jagielka the Blade's only goalkeeping option for the final 30 minutes of the match. It was Sheffield United's first league win over Arsenal in 14 attempts, a run that extended for 33 seasons. The Gunners would go on to finish in 4th place behind Liverpool on goal difference. However, the upset win would not be enough to save Sheffield United as they would ultimately end the 2006-2007 season relegated by the margin of just 1 goal to 17th placed Wigan.

Other notable Christmas upsets

Chelsea 2 v Fulham 2 - December 30th 2006, odds of draw 6.70.

Chelsea 2 v Reading 2 - December 26th 2006, odds of draw 6.60.

Sunderland 0 v Blackpool 2 - December 28th 2010, odds of win 6.00.

Newcastle 0 v Blackburn 1 - December 28th 2003, odds of win 5.80.

Charlton 4 v Chelsea 2 - December 26th 2003, odds of win 5.80.

Portsmouth 0 v Middlesbrough 1 - December 29th 2007, odds of win 5.70.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

When do upsets happen in the Premier League?

What happens after a shock result in the Premier League?

How do Champions League fixtures impact on domestic form?

3 betting books all punters should read

How to win betting Overs & Unders

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/a-brief-history-of-christmas-upsets-in-the-premier-league

If you would like to contribute an article yourself, email andrew at bettingexpert.com

A few weeks ago, I had one of the worst weekends in my entire betting career. As much as we love winning runs, at some point in betting, you will also have to deal with losing streaks.

Now, there are several methods to deal with such losing runs. It’s like in real life - sometimes everything you touch turns to gold. Other times you're probably better off not leaving your house should your bad luck continue in a most unfortunate way. If you ever should experience such a bad run, that doesn’t mean that you’re a bad tipster. Not at all. But dealing with such runs in the wrong way, makes you a bad tipster.

Why?

Let’s look at that awful run of mine. That weekend, I won a lousy 8 of 25 bets, which makes a strike rate of measly 32.0%. Let’s convert those numbers into real money. By investing 1000.00 split across 25 bets, with only 8 winning bets at average odds of 2.00, you would have made a net loss of 360! Repeat such a weekend another two times and your net loss would be a considerable amount of 1080.00 . I’m sure everyone of us has better ideas of what to do with so much money.

What not to do when a losing streak hits

So, what is the best way to deal with such losing runs? Let’s first look at how not to deal with such runs. Let's consider the two most common traps inexperienced gamblers (tipsters) might fall into. The first common mistake is to chase your losses. The second one is quitting gambling (betting) entirely by accepting that your entire investment has gone up in smoke.

Chasing losses is the last thing you should do to deal with your losing streaks. In a mad moment, you decide to swiftly regain your lost money. By increasing your stakes or amount of bets, you’ve decided to chase your losses. The chances that this method will work are equal to the chances that you will lose more money even quicker than you lost your money before you decided that chasing your losses would be a good idea. After all, a losing run also leads to lack of confidence in your own abilities. You will begin to ask yourself questions, like what went wrong or why your hand made system doesn’t work anymore. Now, even if it may be wise in some situations to quit betting, that doesn’t bring back your money, so this is already a no-go.

What to do when a losing a streak hits

If you have established the right strategy before even starting to bet, you would automatically have avoided the above two pitfalls. At the very bottom of the BE page, you can read the following sentence:

“Copyright © 2004-2011 BettingExpert.com. All rights reserved. | Disclaimer, Contact us | Mail | Mail | Never risk money you can't afford to lose!”

Risk discipline

Neither the Copyright, nor the Contact Us or the Disclaimer is what is important here. What really matters is the last sentence: “Never risk money you can't afford to lose!” That’s the first golden rule in betting. By living your betting life with the mentioned rule, you are already prepared for the worst losing runs. As everyone in the betting business knows, losing runs come without warning or disclaimer. Second golden rule is discipline. If you feel that the danger for another losing run is too high, just take a break until you regain your confidence. It doesn’t matter how long or short such a break lasts.

See the big picture

The better option of self-discipline is to see the bigger picture. That could mean that you should have faith in your own system or in your own approach to betting. As an example, it doesn’t make sense to throw away your system, if the same has shown good results in the long-term. Long-term is the crucial word in betting. Although a nice combo with combined odds at 217.5 with 100 something invested would bring you a nice profit of around 21.650, how many similar bets have you won in your betting life? Exactly. You can count such bets with the fingers of one hand. If you've been lucky.

Remain sensible

The better approach is to play singles, or if necessary to keep your combos reasonable small, let’s say with 3-5 bets, multiplying identified value. But you would be surprised how often I have seen people leaving the local bookie store with “tickets” running the length from their own chin to their heels, with around 32 bets on such a ticket. Rest assured that you’ve just seen a loser leaving that place. That’s just one of the 98% from which all the bookies make their profit. That said, forget the fast money. Successful betting is a long-term matter.

Maintain your work ethic

What I usually do when suffering such losing streaks is that I pick my bets even more carefully than before. The process of my analysis takes longer, and the time spent to find the right bet increases significantly. As already mentioned, you could also take a break in betting. But I don’t mean a break by doing nothing. No, au contraire. Make your analysis as you would normally do, and play your bets just on paper and follow if you get the desired results. That way you can try out your strategy and make the right decision.

Keep a record

While talking about paper we touched the third important rule in betting. Track your bets, and your wins as much as the losses. You will be surprised how much you learn about your strategy by looking over the archived results. Historical results are not only important in your decisions for a bet, no, they are also important in your betting discipline. You might find out that your system or your strategy had the same poor performance at the same time of the year as your current losing run. That can have various reasons such as weather conditions or changes within teams. This gives you additional insights into your strategy/system.

To sum up, money management, discipline, and record keeping are the golden rules for successful betting in the long term.

Losing runs included.

Visit Poglavica's BettingExpert profile page to see his latest musings, opinions and tips

If you would like to contribute articles of your own betting analysis, strategy and philosophy for the BettingExpert Blog, send them to Andrew at andrew at bettingexpert.com.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How to manage your betting bankroll

Why the best value markets are worth your money

How to convert odds into probability and other odds formats.

How to start building a sports betting predictive model.

How to find betting value.

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-deal-with-a-losing-run-in-betting

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

When is the first goal scored in the Premier League? As time decays, what is the probability of the half ending in a scoreless draw? Are home clubs liklier to score first? Today on the blog, Andrew takes a look at the last 3 seasons of Premier League action to find out.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote a piece on halftime draws in the Premier League. I looked into how often matches end the half tied, and how often of those drawn halves are scoreless and how many see goals.

In this article I will take a deeper look into drawn halves. In particular I will be looking at the probability of a half ending in a scoreless draw as time expires. Further, I will be looking at the probability of either the home club or the away club being the team to score first and break the 0-0 tie in the first half.

To do this I will be looking back at the time of first goal for each of the 1140 Premier League matches played between 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.

Chance of the first half ending scoreless

So let's begin looking at the liklihood of the first half ending tied without a goal being scored. The chart below shows the chance of the match ending 0-0 at halftime over the last 3 seasons as time expires.

We can see that over the last 3 seasons of Premier League matches, the chance of a match ending at the half without a goal being scored is just over 29%.

As time expires in a goalless match, we see a fairly steady rise in the probability of the half going scoreless until the 32nd minute concludes, at which point we see a rapid increase in a scoreless half as each minute passes. Over the past 3 Premier League seasons, just over 22% of all first goals scored in the opening half are scored from the 33rd minute onwards. If we give an average first half added time of 2 minutes, this means that the 78% of first goals scored were scored in roughly 68% of first half time played, the first 32 minutes.

Home and away scoring first

Now let's look at the chances of both the home and away club scoring the first goal as time expires.

We can see the probability of a first goal being scored in the first half over the last 3 Premier League seasons was just under 71%, with the probability of the home club scoring the first goal being just over 42% while the away club scoring the first goal at a probability of just under 29%.

As time expires we see the overall probability of a goal being scored in the first half diminish, as we did with the probability of the first half ending as a scoreless draw. We can also see the probability of both the home club scoring the first goal in the opening half diminish as well as the probability of the away club.

The first thing we can see is that the opening minutes are in general vulernable ones for the home club relative to later minutes. Up to the conclusion of the 7th minute, the probability of the home club scoring first drops just 1% from 42% to 41%, while at the same time, the liklihood of the away club scoring first drops 3% from 29% to 26%, meaning that as the 7th minute concludes, the proportional likelihood of the home club scoring first has risen from 1.49 to 1.61. Through these opening 7 minutes, home clubs scored the opening goal of the match 74 times, while away clubs scored 71.

We can also see that as the 8th minute concludes, the probability of the away club scoring the first goal stabalise as the probability of the home club scoring first begins to diminish at a more rapid rate. It's a period of quick scoring for the home club. From the conclusion of the 8th minute to the conclusion of the 18th minute, the probability of the away club scoring first drops 2% while the probability of the home club scoring first drops from 9%. Proportionally, over this time span the home club probability against away club probability of scoring the first goal diminishes from 1.57 to 1.34. Through this time span, home clubs scored 172 first match goals, while away clubs scored the opening goal of the match 77 times.

The away clubs counter once the 27h minute concludes up until the end of the 36th minute. Over this span, the home club probability of scoring first drops 8% while the away club probability drops 9%. So while this drop is almost equal in simple numbers, proportionally, the probability of the home club scoring first rises from 1.40 at the end of the 27th minute to 1.79 as the 36th minute concludes. Through this time span, home clubs scored the opening match of the game 82 times, while away clubs scored the first goal 73 times.

So what did we learn?

While it should be noted that we are looking at overall numbers without taking into account any perceived disparity between club form or ability, we can identify a few trends in the potential for home and away clubs to score the opening goal in the first half of play.

One is that the opening minutes, up to the end of the 7th minute have been good for away clubs relative to overall expectations.

Two is that home clubs score well relative overall expectations from end of the 8th to end of 18th minute.

And three, away clubs score well relative to overall expecations from end of the 27th to end of 36th minute.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How often are Premier League matches drawn at halftime?

Champions League 2010-2011 season ending betting trend analysis

Where have the bookmakers got it wrong over the last 5 seasons?

Why the best value markets are worth your money.

How often do football matches end without a goal?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/when-is-the-first-goal-scored-in-the-premier-league

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

How do you spot a horse that is poor value? How do you identify a favourite that isn't worth the price? And how do you profit from them? Our horse racing analyst and editor Stephen shares his insights to help you find the horses that nobody should be betting on and how to profit from them.

Betfair has made the notion of bad value a much harder thing to identify. In years gone by one could readily spot those favourites that were very short in the betting for factors other than their actual form. For example if Dettori was on top and had ridden a few winners earlier in the day, the off course firms would step in and send cash to the course to shorten up the price of his later mounts. This would mean that decent value was about for others in the race as layers pushed out their prices to balance the book.

These days the betfair market completely dominates the prices from first thing in the morning, and the substantial sums traded on each race every day means that supply and demand are matched at a "perfect" price, i.e a price that very accurately reflects the actual chance any horse has.

That being said, it is still possible to find value "away from the crowd" if one focuses on horses at bigger prices and bets each-way with traditional layers. Again betfair can be a useful guide in the place market where the perfect price established is frequently a lot less than ones a punter can avail himself to.

Where to find poor value and take advantage

An ideal race to find value in is an 8/9/10 runner race where the layers pay three places and very few of the contenders have chances. These type of bets are often found in uncompetitive maidens or novice hurdles where 3 or 4 runners have any ability. Getting these bets on each-way is often more of a challenge than finding winners!

There is little doubt that horses at the front of the market are now overbet and the only long term way to realise this is to price up races to 100 per cent yourself, without using betfair as a guide. This gives the informed punter a parameter that makes identifying "poor" value favourites much easier.

"Momentum" trading using robots on betfair has become more and more popular and has created a downward pressure on prices of favourites in many races. Put simply these traders attempt to profit by forcing prices in the direction that volume of money dictates, and coming in and out of the market to create profits regardless of the result of the race.

This stock market style trading brings welcome liquidity and can mean that actual value exists away from these highly traded horses. Again it is up to the astute punter to spot when a short priced horse is a vehicle for trading rather than actually having an excellent chance of winning.

The most common source of underpriced favourites are undoubtedly when a big name stable teams up with a high profile pilot. Put simply there are no secrets in the price when Dettori or McCoy ride any horse for their retained stables. Usually it pays to steer clear of these "hype" horses who are usually underpriced on their actual ability.

Another area is unbeaten horses who have won on their debut at the racecourse. These winners are often hyped up as worldbeaters, particularly by bigger yards, regardless of the form of the race they have won. Searching for a more exposed consistent runner and betting each-way is a more logical approach against these potential "stars". So often, especially with 2 y-o's on the flat the "could be anything...our best juvenile" turn out to be nothing special. Form always beats hype is a profitable maxim, and hype is never overpriced in this communication age.

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

10 Horses to follow for National Hunt Season 2011-2012

10 rules to follow to succeed betting on horse racing

The Bookmaker vs The Punter in the modern age

3 betting books all punters should read

How to bet on BettingExpert's Hot Horses

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-find-bad-value-horses

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

How does a midweek Champions League fixture impact upon a club's next domestic contest? Which leagues have performed better? Which situations have been more profitable? Today, Andrew breaks down the last 5 seasons of odds and results to find out.

Some analysis I have been meaning to do for a while, and that my friend @dansportzblog reminded me of a couple of weeks ago, was to see how a midweek Champions League matchup impacts upon a club's next domestic fixture.

Do they underperform in comparison to the odds? Do we see more drawn results? And what about goal totals when teams come off a midweek contest in Europe?

All these questions and more got scratching at my curiosity, so I decided to look back into the last 5 seasons of results, from 2006-2007 to 2010-2011, for Champions League clubs competing in the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and the Bundesliga. In particular, I looked at domestic matches played by the competing clubs within a week of their Champions League fixture.

We will be analysing win, draw and loss profitability for these clubs by betting at 'even stakes' (one unit on each possible outcome), assessing each outcome - win, draw or loss - by their percentage return of overall investment using match odds standardised to typical bookmaker commission of 4.5% (i.e 'even' money at odds of 1.91). In this analysis we will consider any outcome performing above -4.5% as performing above 'standard bookmaker commission'.

So, here's what I found.

League by league

So the first thing I did was look at how clubs from each of the four leagues have performed in composite when backing up from a midweek Champions League fixture. The table below shows how Champions League clubs in each league performed in terms of win-draw-loss profitability at 'even stakes' since the 2006-2007 seasons in domestic matches following Champions League commitments.

The first thing we should note is the striking form of clubs returning from Champions League commitments. Overall, you might have expected them to perhaps have a down performance and see a profitable edge to their domestic opposition.

But what we see is that in all but one league, the Bundesliga, clubs returning from Champions League fixtures have performed above standard bookmaker commission of -4.5%, with both the Premier League and Serie A clubs returning an 'even stakes' profit over the last 5 seasons.

Similarly we see that the domestic opposition of returning Champions League clubs have performed well under oddsmaker expectations in each league except the Bundesliga.

When we look at goal totals, we see that the over 2.5 goals occurrence of almost 54% is about what we might expect for any average football match across Europe. But we do see a distinct difference between the Bundesliga and La Liga when compared with the Premier League and Serie A, in matches following Champions League encounters.

After different results

So let's now take a look at how clubs performed following the full range of results - win, draw or loss. The table below shows the profitability at 'even stakes' of clubs in our four leagues of study following such results in the Champions League.

We can see that in general, Champions League form has followed on to the following domestic contest across the four leagues.

When clubs have come off a Champions League victory, they have gone on to return a profit of 1.60% at 'even stakes' in their next domestic match, with the profitability of their domestic opposition a woeful -27.12%.

Similarly, when clubs have come off a Champions League draw, the draw profitability at 'even stakes' in their next domestic contest is a very handsome profit of 7.60%, with their win profitability also on the good side of zero.

When clubs have come off a Champions League loss, the profitability for the draw in their next domestic encounter is quite striking, returning a loss of over 20% at 'even stakes' the last 5 seasons. And while the profitability of their opposition is still below standard bookmaker commission, it is comfortably the best result for domestic opposition clubs of the three categories.

When we consider goal totals, it is interesting to see that the Over 2.5 goals occurrence in matches where a Champions League clubs have come off a win is just on 50%, despite the generous win profitability in this category. On the other hand, when clubs have come off a Champions League loss, we see an Over 2.5 goals occurrence of just under 59%, which corresponds with the poor return for drawn results in this same category.

Location location location

So let's now turn to see how Champions League clubs in our four leagues have performed when we split the results dependant upon location of the Champions League fixture and the location of the next domestic contest.

The first thing we see is that when clubs have come off a Champions League match and are playing at home in their following domestic matchup, they have performed very well against oddsmakers expectations. Interestingly, we see that when clubs have come off an away Champions League fixture and play at home, they have returned a superior 'even stakes' profit of over 3%, than when coming off a home Champions League match, where they have returned a profit of over 1%.

We see something similar when we also consider clubs playing away after a Champions League encounter. While in both examples they have returned a loss in terms of win profitability, when clubs have come off an away Champions League match, they have performed better against the odds with a win profitability of -0.48%, than when they have come off a home Champions League match where they have generated a win return of -5.17%.

Why?

Well the answer I assume is that the oddsmakers have given overly generous odds for clubs coming off an away Champions League commitment than a home one, with the general public betting with the belief that such clubs are more likely for a let down game following their travels.

But as we can see, such clubs have performed far better than we could be led to believe by the oddsmakers.

Looking at goal totals, we see a striking result in matches where a Champions League club from one of our four leagues of study, has come off a home Champions League match and is playing away in their next domestic matchup. In these situations, the Over 2.5 goal occurrence has been just under 44%, while each other category has been well above 50%.

The regulars

Let's now breakdown club performances from our four leagues of study a little more. Here we will be looking at different types of clubs - Champions League regulars and The Others. In the regulars group I have included the following clubs : AC Milan, Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester United and Real Madrid.

The results here are quite striking, especially when we consider the profitability of domestic opposition clubs. When "regulars" have returned from Champions League duties, their opposition profitability is an awful -33.79% at 'even stakes', while when non-regular Champions League clubs from our four leagues of study return, their opposition have returned a profit of 0.50% at even stakes.

Considering goal totals, we can see that domestic matches involving "other" clubs from our four leagues of study, have been higher than those of Champions League "regulars", with an Over 2.5 goal occurrence of almost 58% compared to just under 52%.

So what did we learn?

Like any trend analysis, we want to be careful not to just following them blindly as we look forward. But at the same time, such analysis can provide a valuable insight as part of your overall betting analysis for any upcoming match.

Overall we can see that in the past, there may have been an over-estimation by oddsmakers, or at least by the general betting public of the impact of mid-week Champions League fixtures on clubs in the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A. We have seen in this analysis that in certain situations, clubs have performed very well in comparison to odds expactations, even returning generous profits at 'even stakes' despite their extra commitments away from their domestic competitions. Similarly, the profitability of their domestic opposition in matches following Champions League commitments have been in some cases, extremely poor.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Champions League 2010-2011 season ending betting trend analysis

Where have the bookmakers got it wrong over the last 5 seasons?

How often are Premier League matches drawn at halftime?

What happens after a shock result in the Premier League?

How often do football matches end without a goal?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/do-champions-league-matches-impact-on-domestic-matches

The traditional method of performing NFL prediction and analysis is based upon observable factors, such as weather and injuries, or based on the statistics and past performances of the teams and players. But there are other factors that can be taken into consideration using a stat that isn’t observable, and isn’t generated by the teams or players.

A unique and often unaddressed metric in the analysis of NFL is the data point of “the spread”, the more colloquial name given to point spread. Seeing how teams have performed against the spread - or ‘ATS’ - attaches a numerically quantifiable stat to the ‘weight’ that the favorite or underdog holds. Though the spread is not directly attached to the team, and won’t have a direct effect on the players and game, it works to represent a factor that is very difficult to otherwise explain and give value to. The spread acts to communicate the public and expert perception of the combination of tangible and intangible factors in NFL matchups.

When analysing past performance, trends emerge that are based on a variety of statistics, including how teams have done against the spread. Taking the spread and seeing, historically, how teams have performed at different spread values can answer questions that other stats cannot. Have they covered when they are favorites by only a slight margin? How about when they are heavily favoured, do they win frequently, or does the public expectation get to them, resulting in dropped snaps and dropped coverage?

A perfect example of this analysis being used practically would be in the case of the Buffalo Bills. Querying the database at NFL Team Trends as to how the Bills have performed as a slight favorite, of only 1 to 4 points, we see the following results:

The Bills have performed roughly as expected for a slight favorite. They are able to cover the spread slightly more than most teams (the league average is around 50%) and they have won the majority of the games when they are only slightly favored over their opponent.

However, when we ask how they have performed as a favorite of more than 4 points, we see something shockingly different:

Even though the Bills were a heavier favorite in these games, they actually lost more! Being heavily favored has actually caused the Bills to lose more games straight-up than when they are slightly favored. This goes against general intuition, but also serves as an example of teams can perform differently than the point spread would suggest.

The value of this type of statistical analysis can also be seen when we look at the historical trends of Denver and Washington when favored by more than 5 points:

When a team is favored by such a large margin, one would expect that they would win most of the time, regardless of whether or not they are able to cover the spread. This is not true for these teams; both the Redskins and Broncos only win half the time that they are heavily favored. This is a unique angle of game NFL analysis that we can utilise when predicting their next game, and it can be found easily using the ATS data point.

Contrasting the dismal performance shown by Denver and Washington when they are predicted to win, some teams have historically proven themselves to thrive as an underdog. When we look at how the Eagles have played when they are supposed to be severely out-matched, we see that they have a record over .500:

This historical performance is good to take into account when analysing Philadelphia’s next game. We can look at what other situational factors were reoccurring in the Eagles underdog victories: Were they at home or away? Who was the Quarterback during these upset wins? Our analysis of the NFL can be directed and focused when looking for factors that help teams win games.

Looking at the spread for an upcoming game, and seeing how a team performs historically against that spread, is not only useful for sports betting. It can give you valuable insight into how non-quantitative factors such as momentum and hype can affect teams. A thorough analysis is incomplete without incorporating in these factors, and the spread is one of the most effective tools to make meaning out of more intangible factors.

Jordan is part of the team at NFLTeamTrends, a site specialising in streamlining the analysis of the NFL through historical trends, situational factors, and unique betting statistics.

Follow them on Twitter : @NFLTeamTrends

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How do warm weather NFL teams perform in the cold of December and January?

What are the key numbers in NFL line betting?

Do west coast NFL teams under perform when travelling east?

Where does the value go when an NFL line moves?

What's the worst way to lose a bet?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/analysing-nfl-betting-line-trends

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

How often are Premier League matches drawn at halftime? How often are those halftime draws scoreless? Andrew breaks down the odds and 10 seasons worth of Premier League results to tell us.

Like most of you, I was watching the football yesterday. And while keeping an eye on my list of bets, twitter feed, fantasy team score updates, stock of corn chips and reserves of Coke, I was also taking note of the odds movements in the in-play betting markets.

One thing I became curious of was the occurrence of halftime drawn results when broken down by odds ranges. In particular, what is the occurrence of halftime drawn matches when home clubs start short priced favourites? Do these sorts of matches get to the half with the clubs locked on the scoreboard more often than we might suspect?

Further, what is the breakdown of drawn halftime matches? What percentage are scoreless draws? And how often do we see halftime draws where both clubs have scored in the opening half?

So on this Sunday afternoon (morning for most of you), I thought I would break out the spread sheets and throw together some charts, to answer these and possibly even more questions.

How often are clubs locked at halftime?

So let's begin with the essential question : How often are clubs tied at the half in the Premier League? The chart below shows the occurrence of halftime draws in the Premier League since 2001-2002, broken down by odds ranges based upon the starting price of the home club.

The first thing we can see is that the occurrence of halftime draws is fairly consistent when the home club starts between odds of 1.51 and 4.00. This range has also seen the bulk of Premier League matches since 2001-2002, combining for just over 71% of all matches played.

Over the last 10 plus seasons, matches in this range have been drawn at the half just under 44% of the time, with matches where the home club started between 1.51 and 2.00 being drawn just over 44% of the time, between 2.01 and 2.75 just over 43% and between 2.76 and 4.00 just over 45% of the time.

When home clubs started of odds 1.50 or below, matches have been drawn at the half just over 34% of the time, while when home clubs start at odds of 4.01 or above, matches have been drawn just over 38% of the time at the intermission.

How often are halftime draws scoreless?

So let's go a little further and breakdown the occurrence of drawn halftime results since 2001-2002 in the Premier League. Below we can see the occurrence of halftime drawn results broken down in 0-0 scoreless results, 1-1 ties and halftime draws of 2-2 or greater.

Again we see consistent results across the home club starting between 1.51 and 4.00 odds range, with scoreless halftime draws occurring between 32% and 34% of the time, and 1-1 halftime results occurring between 10% and 11%. Further to this, situations where the home club has started at odds of 4.01 or greater has seen a similar percentage of 1-1 halftime draws of just under 11% of the time.

We can also see that the occurrence of 4 goal or more halftime draws (Other) rises steadily within this range, with 0.50% of matches with the home club starting between 1.51 and 2.00 being drawn at the half with 4 goals or more scored, just under 1% when the home club starts between 2.01 and 2.75 and almost 1.3% of the time when the home club starts between odds of 2.76 and 4.00.

Interestingly enough, a greater percentage of matches with the home club starting at odds of 1.50 or below have been drawn with 4 or more goals scored, than every other odds range except for when home clubs have started between 2.76 and 4.00.

Further, we see that when home clubs have started between 1.26 and 1.50, we see a slighter percentage of scoreless draws than when home clubs have started at the shorter price of 1.25 or below, despite having similar overall halftime draw occurrences (33% and 36% respectively). When home clubs have started between odds of 1.26 and 1.50, just under 24% of those matches have been scoreless at the half, with 1-1 draws occurring just under 9% of the time. Meanwhile, when home clubs started at odds of 1.25 or below, just over 28% of those matches were scorless halftime results, with just over 6% being tied 1-1 at the half.

Fulltime draw odds & halftime draw occurrence

Let's conclude by looking at the occurrence of halftime draws based on fulltime match draw odds since 2001-2002. Below we can see that occurrence of halftime draws based on odds ranges for a drawn match.

We can see that there has been little difference between draw occurrences when the fulltime draw odds have been below 4.00 since 2001-2002, with around 43% of matches within this odds range being tied at the half.

However, when we consider matches where the fulltime draw odds were 4.01 and above, the halftime draw occurrence drops off significantly, with just under 36% of matches within this range being drawn at the halftime break over the last 10 seasons.

Below we can see a breakdown of halftime draw results, considering the occurrence of scoreless halftime draws, 1-1 halftime draws and halftime draws of 4 goals or greater based on fulltime drawn match odds since 2001-2002.

While we saw that overall halftime draw occurrences are similar below fulltime draw odds of 4.00 at around 43%, when we take a closer look, we see that the occurrence of scoreless halftime draws diminishes as we approach the 4.00 odds mark, and the occurrence of 1-1 halftime results steadily increases, from an occurrence of just over 8% when the fulltime draw odds were 3.30 or below, just under 11% when fulltime draw odds were between 3.31 and 3.50, and finally, just over 11% when the fulltime draw odds were between 3.51 and 4.00.

So while the overall halftime drawn results were similar across this range, as the expecation of a drawn match result at fulltime becomes less (as we approach odds of 4.00 for the draw) the occurrence of scoring halftime draws increases.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Where have the bookmakers got it wrong over the last 5 seasons?

How often do both clubs score in a game of football?

How many goals are scored in a Premier League match?

How often do football matches end without a goal?

How do you win betting Overs & Unders?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-often-are-premier-league-matches-drawn-at-halftime

It is the turn of League 1 to be assessed with a view to identifying any value in the title betting. Nineteen rounds of fixtures have been played, and five clubs make most appeal at the top of the table.

Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, MK Dons and Sheffield United have all reached 35 points and will be dreaming of automatic promotion to the Championship. The last seven years of promotion records from League 1 have been examined to identify any trends and patterns that might provide a clue to the second half of the season.

Analysis of recent seasons

Analysis of the records of the fourteen automatically promoted sides since 2005 reveals that away points are harder to come by in League 1 than in League 2 or the Championship. The table below indicates the points-expectation of top-two clubs in each division against top-eight, middle-eight and bottom-eight sides in the final league table.

Points return of automatically promoted clubs against rest of division 2005-2011

Against fellow top-eight clubs, League 1 is remarkable in that more points are gained at home (1.88 points) compared to the other football league divisions, but far fewer (1.26 points) are gained on the road. The shortfall is generally made up by the expected points return against middle ranked clubs. In League 1, 1.87 points per game are gained on the road against these mid-ranked clubs that finish in 9th to 16th position, compared to 1.74 in the Championship and only 1.63 in League 2.

The Contenders

The findings of the table above have increased relevance now that a significant fraction of the fixtures have been played.

Sheffield United

Current points 35.

Title odds 10/1.

Bramall Lane has already hosted the four teams above the Blades, and only MK Dons were beaten. The current top-8 return is only 1.0 points, which suggests United will have to make up that shortfall elsewhere. Still to come are five fixtures away at top eight clubs, and six at mid-eight clubs. It is hard to see Sheffield United turning the form around on their travels and making up eleven points on Charlton.

MK Dons

Current points 36

Title odds 14/1.

MK Dons have lost three of four away fixtures to top half sides faced so far, but otherwise the season is developing well. Securing impressive records against teams below fifth, MK Dons will have to find a way to take points from fellow-elite clubs if they are to break into the automatic places.

Huddersfield Town

Current points 38.

Title odds 11/4.

Huddersfield have just lost their 43-match unbeaten record at title-rivals Charlton. It may actually be a blessing if the fear of defeat has been removed. The Terriers have won only four matches on the road, drawing the remaining five. Similarly, at home Huddersfield have drawn three times and all to teams outside the top-eight. A sustained run of wins is possible, but it will also be necessary to close the 8-point gap that has now developed to Charlton at the summit. Huddersfield have also enjoyed the easiest set of fixtures among the top five teams to date.

Sheffield Wednesday

Current points 39

Title odds 11/2

Wednesday now occupy second place in the table, and are having a wonderful season at Hillsborough. Only three top-half sides have visited to date, but after nine matches only Brentford have emerged with as much as a point. On their travels, the Owls have been less impressive. If the home-win rate drops they might struggle to remain in the automatic promotion positions. Having said that, only four road-fixtures remain at top-half clubs and three of these are not until the final few weeks of the season. Wednesday could exploit a run of less-taxing fixtures and establish a gap to third place. Whether Wednesday could close the seven point lead enjoyed by Charlton is another matter.

Charlton Athletic

Current points 46

Title odds 7/5.

Charlton have endured the toughest set of road-fixtures in the top five so far, as can be seen in the table below. Only Sheffield United have played a tougher opening set of home fixtures in the same group. Therefore, if the anticipated points return for clubs ending in the automatic promotion places are applied to Charlton, Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield United and MK Dons, the lead at the top for Charlton can be expected to increase as a result of the easier remaining fixtures.

Average league position of opposition played so far

End of season projection

The table below shows a rather inflated estimation of final points, because it assumes all clubs will play out the remaining 27 rounds of fixtures with the form of a promoted club. This is not a realistic assumption. However the implication is that with a kinder set of remaining fixtures, Charlton could win the title by a margin of up to ten points.

Estimated final points with expected points return of an automatically promoted club

Conclusion

Charlton Athletic have secured a seven point lead after playing a more difficult set of fixtures than their main rivals at the top of League 1. With an easier run-in, a substantial lead, and a seemingly superior squad the currently available price of 7/5 (Paddy Power) is considered to be outstanding value.

Sheffield Wednesday may emerge as the main challenger to Charlton in the New Year, especially as their most difficult fixtures are scheduled for as late as March and April. The price for the Owls to be promoted (5/4 SkyBet) may appeal as value in a straight race with Huddersfield, MK Dons and Sheffield United for the second automatic place, with the possibility of a second chance in the play-offs.

Visit Manchild's BettingExpert profile page to see his latest musings, opinions and tips

And you can follow Manchild on Twitter at @Manchild500

If you would like to contribute articles of your own betting analysis, strategy and philosophy for the BettingExpert Blog, send them to Andrew at andrew at bettingexpert.com.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

League Two mid-season betting report 2011-2012

Blue Square Premier League mid-season betting report 2011-2012

Which leagues did the bookmakers get wrong in recent seasons?

Should you bet on newly promoted clubs?

Should you bet on relegated clubs?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/league-one-mid-season-betting-report-2011

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

In the latest edition of our "Talking betting" series, we speak today with Bettingexpert community member Santos about what he loves about betting on sports, his own personal betting philosophies and what it's like to be a BettingExpert tipster.

So you've been a member of our tipster community for a while now. Do you remember when sports betting first took your interest?

That was a long time ago. I remember my friend introduced me to it when I was 15 or 16. I remember walking into a sports betting parlor in my city and just looking around. There were dozens of boards on which I could read the names of the teams followed by a whole bunch of digits, which at that point I had no clue about. At first it seemed like black magic, but I eventually got the hang of it. I got hooked and bet ever since.

Yeah, the first time you walk into a casino or betting shop is often a defining experience for guys like us. What was the first sport you began placing bets on?

Definitely football. I started betting on the internet a couple of years ago. Before that, I only bet in sports parlors in my city - Kielce. Here the most popular sports are football and hockey. I discovered the world of horse racing and other sports disciplines just a couple of years ago.

Do you remember what your first bet was?

Yes. I still have a laugh when I think about those old times. I think my first bet was on Barcelona and Real Madrid. Both odds were at that time around 1.15. I didn't really have a clue what that meant and assumed I'd get rich by placing a bet on them. I think it was around 2 euros. I remembered I was disappointed when the lady working there handed me my ticket and I was to win around 40 or 50 cents. The bet was a win and cashing in the ticket was very embarrassing but somehow it felt good.

Hey, a win's a win. So what is your general betting strategy? Do you have an overall betting philosophy?

That's hard to define. I have no real strategy, while the philosophy is the same as every one - to win. I try to bet on the teams or horses I trust and I know how they perform. Knowing all the information you can possibly gather is the key. Betting on football and hockey requires little reading and keeping track compared to horse racing. I think the best strategy is knowing as much as you possibly can and having luck too, because even the greatest amount of knowledge can fail if you're simply unlucky. My strategy is to try my luck. I often place bets on events I know are nearly certain to be correct, as well as on less certain, if not totally 'long shot' bets.

Do statistics come into your betting preparation?

Yes! I can't imagine the world of sports betting without statistics. Many could argue with that but for me, stats are the key in some sports disciplines and are usually the base for my tips/bets. They are very helpful but often they don't always portray the true value and abilities of a certain team so I guess reading team news, keeping track of stats and watching as many matches as possible is the true key.

You've got a few years of experience behind you now. How have you noticed your approach to betting change ovet those years?

I have a more distant approach to it today. In the past, all I could do is sit at home and keep placing bets for a living. I remember loosing a whole bunch of money back in my teenage years. Whatever money I got, I always invested and the outcome was not always all that pretty. At first I played a lot of multiples, 5-15 matches on one coupon and usually ended up dreaming about the thousands I could win only to discover that only one pick was incorrect. I still have a whole bunch of old coupons lying around the house, where one silly pick took away a young boys dream (laughing).

We've all been on the wrong end of those.

For sure. Now I guess I don't play any low odds. It's better to risk a few pennies on higher odds than heavy money on low odds. The fewer matches on a coupon the better. I guess the most important thing I learned is the attitude and mentality. I treat sports betting more as a hobby now and the additional money as a reward, where I usually invest 50% of what I win and 50% I spend on whatever I feel like buying at the moment. It's important to understand that there is no such thing as a 'sure bet' and every team can loose, so can the person betting.

The hardest lesson to learn. What would be your best sport to bet on?

That is a difficult question. Football is a more stable sport to bet on I guess. The one thing I don't like are the low odds offered. So I think I'll stick with what I currently am engaged in the most - Horse Racing. Definitely a much more lucrative market than in other sports. The odds are anywhere from the very low 1.3 - 1.5 to 250. Hunting down those higher odds makes betting very fun and profitable. There are tons of races to bet on. It's a sports discipline which could give you quick income, but also major losses. Horse racing is pretty much the hardest discipline I have ever approached. It just makes it more beautiful. I learn something new each day and each success gives plenty of satisfaction. It's a wonderful sport which I recommend to everyone.

Horse racing also has one major advantage over football and other sports... there are numerous races each day throughout the year. I was always extremely bored during the summer holidays when all the major football leagues finished and there was little to bet on. Horse racing on the other hand has races each day and you just can't end up not having anything to bet on. Huge market, great profits and very fun to bet and watch.

It's definately a sport that can become obsessive. Do you remember the best bet you ever made?

I honestly don't remember. I could tell you a hundred bad bets but somehow the good ones just don't come to mind. I had a few but none which I could brag about.

Yeah, the bad ones seem to haunt the memory don't they? Do you feel you're a better tipster now for being a part of the BettingExpert community?

Definitely. I've learned plenty from the BE community. BE opened a new channel of thinking for me. Keeping track of stats and so on was once a routine I did but I never focused fully on particular matches. Now that I write analyses at BE I fully concentrate and try to get as much info as I can. I sometimes end up writing a tip half way and then thinking it over decide not to post it, just because I found some additional info which changed my mind or lowered my confidence about some bet. Reading other tipsters tips is also a very useful thing. I learned different points of view, and things other tipsters take into consideration when betting. I look at other peoples bets and find interesting markets and things others find more value in than I initial have seen. It's a real privilege to be part of the BE community and be able to share my picks and thoughts with others.

So for someone just starting out in the world of betting, what words of wisdom would you offer them?

Trust your instinct. Sometimes all the signs on earth say one thing but your gut tells you something else. Stick with it! It may be worth the risk. The most important thing to remember is that sports betting can be very addictive and you should treat it as fun and nothing more.

Never risk more money than you can afford to loose. If you loose - trying to win back what you've lost is another huge mistake. Playing smart and responsibly is the best solution. Treat sports betting as a hobby and the money you win as a reward for your knowledge. Read, watch, learn, try and succeed. Loosing is a part of sports betting so don't feel bad about it. Analyze your mistakes and try to learn as much as you can. Remember to have fun !!!

Indeed. Good luck with your future bets and thanks for sharing your thoughts with us Santos.

Thanks Andrew.

Visit Santos' BettingExpert profile page to see his latest opinions, analysis and tips

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How do you tell which horses are getting the smart money today?

10 Horses to follow for National Hunt Season 2011-2012

10 rules to follow to succeed betting on horse racing

3 books about betting you need to read

10 Things you need to be successful at betting on sports

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/talking-betting-with-santos

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Which leagues have been the best for home clubs over the last 5 seasons? What about away clubs or the draw? Which leagues have been good for short priced favourites or underdogs at home? Andrew breaks down the numbers for the last 5 seasons across 6 major leagues of Europe to find out.

A common question I get in emails and recently on twitter is which leagues have shown better and worse results in win-draw-loss betting markets for home and away clubs when broken down by various odds ranges.

And so today I bring it to you. A lot of numbers. A lot of charts. And some meandering analysis that may state the obvious more often than not.

In this piece we will be looking at 6 leagues -

• English Premier League
• German Bundesliga
• Spanish La Liga
• Italian Serie A
• French Ligue 1
• Scottish Premier League

We will also be breaking match and results down into our familiar odds ranges -

• When home club at odds of 1.25 or less
• When home club at odds between 1.26 and 1.50
• When home club at odds between 1.51 and 2.00
• When home club at odds between 2.01 and 2.75
• When home club at odds between 2.76 and 4.00
• When home club at odds of 4.01 or greater

We will be assessing each outcome (home win, draw, away win) by betting at even stakes and seeing how profitable or unprofitable each has been since the start of the 2006-2007 season, up until today, with odds at standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% i.e 'even money at 1.91.

However you choose to make use of all the data in this article, I hope it helps you find a winner. Let's get into it.

When Home clubs start at odds 1.25 or less

Below we can see the results for each of our 6 leagues of study, when home clubs started the match at very short prices of 1.25 or less.

The first thing we should notice is that home clubs at this sort of short price have been profitable with combined results across all 6 leagues, giving a profit at even stakes of over 2% the last 5 seasons.

The only league that saw home clubs in this situation run at an even stakes loss below standard bookmaker commission of 4.5%, was the Serie A. The Bundesliga was the only other league to have home clubs in this situation run at a loss, with both the Serie A and Bundesliga show handsome profits at even stakes for the draw when home clubs are this short in the win market.

Regardless of league, it's been very clear that over the last 5 seasons, away clubs coming up against such heavily fancied home clubs have been awful, with just 7 wins in total, giving an overall loss at even stakes of almost 55%.

When Home clubs start at odds between 1.26 and 1.50

Let's now move to matches where the home club started at odds between 1.26 and 1.50. Here we see a similar trend although not quite as striking.

We see that home clubs in this situation have overall performed slighty above standard bookmaker commission, at just under 4% since 2006. Only La Liga clubs made a slight even stakes profit, with SPL home clubs in this situation performing the worst of all leagues, giving a loss of almost 11%.

Although we see widely varied results for the draw, the overall results are just slightly above 4%. But again we see away clubs in this odds range performing overall significantly under market expectations, giving a loss of over 16% since 2006, with 4 leagues showing large losses.

When Home clubs start at odds between 1.51 and 2.00

As we move into a range where home clubs begin to approach even money, we see the draw become the market to bet against. Overall combined results for the draw across all 6 leagues the last 5 seasons, has given a loss of over 9%.

5 of the 6 leagues saw losses in the draw market since 2006 over standard bookmaker commission, with 4 of those leagues significantly over. It's the results in Ligue 1 which saw the draw give an even stakes profit of over 5% that make the overall draw result of 9% somewhat respectable.

When Home clubs start at odds between 2.01 and 2.75

So now let's head into the territory where home clubs and away clubs are approaching equal value. In this range we see a shift back towards away clubs being poor value, with the combined results of away clubs giving a loss of over 10% at even stakes since 2006.

4 of leagues showed significant losses for away clubs with the Bundesliga being the odd one out, giving an overall profit for away clubs in this range of almost 6% at even stakes.

When we consider home form here, we see all leagues except for the SPL giving above standard bookmaker commission results, with both La Liga and Serie A post profits above 2%.

When Home clubs start at odds between 2.76 and 4.00

The first thing we notice here is that it is easily our most consistent range, with each market giving a loss of just over 5% the last 5 seasons. But we do see wild fluctuations from league to league.

Despite 4 leagues being above standard bookmaker commission for the home club win market, no league posted an overall profit, with only the SPL and Bundesliga showing significant losses.

4 leagues posted results above standard bookmaker commission in the draw market for this range, with 2 leagues, the EPL and SPL showing significant profits.

When Home clubs start at odds between 4.01 and above

Finally, let's look at when home clubs are big underdogs, off odds greater than 4.00.

Here we see the draw once again, perform below market expectations, with a loss here of over 11%. Other than that, it's a bit of a mess, with result fluctuating greatly form league to league.

For a league with a tradition of low scoring, Ligue 1 gave a profitability in this odds range for the draw at a loss of just over 40%, while the Bundesliga was very kind to home clubs of such inviting odds, giving an even stake profit of greater than 28% since 2006.

Home-Draw-Away

So let's look at some of the numbers and see what we find.

- Home clubs performed under standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% in just two odds ranges, those being home clubs starting between 1.51 and 2.00 and home clubs starting between 2.76 and 4.00, and even then is was only a minimal deficit of -4.80% and -5.09%.

- The Draw performed above standard bookmaker commission in just one odds range, when home clubs start between 1.26 and 1.50 and even then it was a minimal success at just -4.08%.

- Away clubs have been a bit all over the place.

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/which-leagues-do-the-bookmakers-get-wrong

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

With Christmas fast approaching, our racing analyst Stephen delivers us some holiday reading to help sharpen our betting minds and improve our profit and loss column in 2012.

With the festive season looming it is a good time to reflect upon the previous years betting successes and failures, and try to analyse ways of improving profitability. These three excellent reads all offer a fascinating insight into the lives of punters who often need to win to survive, and will hopefully provide new ideas and mentalities essential for anyone who enjoys a bet.

ENEMY NUMBER ONE - The Secrets of the Uk's most feared professional punter

by Patrick Veitch

This is the inside story of Patrick Veitch and how he has built up a multi million pound fortune by consistently beating the layers. The autobiography provides a clear insight into the steely mindset that is required for success in the ever-changing world of gambling. 0ver a period of eight years he documents how he won around £10m and overcame all sorts of adversity along the way, including an extortion attempt that saw him go into hiding and receiving police protection for over a year.

He details the virtual military planning that is needed to get the hefty sums on with bookmakers, often far harder than finding the winners themselves, and how he operates on a day to day basis.

Disappointingly for some there is no magic overnight system for his continued profits, he simply dedicates many hours of hard form study and video watching. Constantly recording races and watching them over and over in an attempt to find any edge that has been missed by the plethora of form services that provide the same service. That dogged pursuit of an edge, coupled with a vast range of contacts within stables that train his large string of racehorses, have seen him stay one step ahead of the game since finishing as a mathematician at Cambridge.

As a read it can get bogged down in figures a bit and Veitch's single mindedness can be overwhelming at times. However, overall it is great to read about some of the coups he has pulled off, including Exponential winning at Nottingham having been smashed down from an opening show of 100-1. I distinctly remember this win personally, as the company I was senior trader for at the time got painfully burned by a deluge of cash from new accounts on Exponential. Indeed Veitch has always had a mystical reputation in the betting industry, something he feeds off by often throwing false gambles out to disguise where the real cash is going.

For anyone interested in horse racing and the life of a true pro, this is compelling reading from the first page to the last.

Get Enemy Number One at Amazon

NO EASY MONEY - A Gamblers Diary

by Dave Nevison

Written in diary format, this chronicles a year in the betting life of the former on-course pro-punter Dave Nevison. He details very clearly the characters within the racing game and the ups and downs of a highly pressurised life, where he has to win a large sum of money every year to support his family.

This is a far more colourful account and an easier read than the Veitch style view of a life beating the layers. However, it is tempered slightly by the fact that the author is now mainly a journalist/broadcaster who no longer relies on betting to live.

That said, his journey through a calendar year of betting perfectly illustrates the torments and mental tests that any would be punter must overcome. The pressures of having a large young family, going through a divorce and trying to stay focussed on finding winners is a story well told.

Nevison has had a varied career and made a success of betting for a number of years before betfair effectively removed a massive edge. He has subsequently reinvented himself and has an excellent opinion on the form and any value still available in the fixed odds arena.

Some of his biggest wins came through spread-betting pre-betfair when the prices on offer where often wildly different from his selections true chances. Nevison's successses inevitably made "getting on" harder and harder, and some of the lengths that he and his accomplices would go to get the price they desired are very well related in this compelling diary.

Get No Easy Money at Amazon

FREUD ON COURSE - The Racing Lives of Clement Freud

by Sir Clement Freud

This is the story of the now deceased Sir Clement Freud and the amazing life he led, wrapped up totally in the worlds of betting, racing and food!.

The famous peer's lifelong devotion to betting and racing are legendary and this autobiograhy is full of tales of huge wins and more often losses, as he followed the horses he owned around the country.

As he got older he seemed to get more amusing, and his columns in any number of daily newspapers had a huge following. The anecdotes flow from page one and his unique views on some of the big names in racing provide a genuine insight.

He was not scared of having a bet and rarely a day passed in his life without a punt. Although not reliant on betting to fund his lavish lifestyle, he often threatened his numerous relations inheritance would be nothing unless a few winners could be found.

For anyone interested in a lighter hearted read over the festive season this will definitely provide plenty of amusement.

Get Freud On Course at Amazon

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

How do you tell which horses are getting the smart money today?

10 Horses to follow for National Hunt Season 2011-2012

10 rules to follow to succeed betting on horse racing

How to convert odds to their implied probability

10 Things you need to be successful at betting on sports

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/best-books-about-betting

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Last week FIFA boss Sepp Blatter outraged all when he claimed that incidents of on-field racism could be settled with a simple friendly forgive and forget handshake, eventually likening racial abuse to foul language. Despite a bumbling attempt to explain his views on racism and discrimination in football, many feel that it's finally time to see Blatter out as FIFA boss.

And with Blatter's conflict resolution philosophy in mind, here's how Sepp plans to save the world.....the Sepp Blatter Global Issue Resolution Chart.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

What's the worst way to lose a bet?

How often do Premier League clubs come from behind at halftime to win?

How to know which horses are receiving the smart money

How often does a football match end without a goal?

How do you start building a sports betting predictive model?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/the-sepp-blatter-global-issue-resolution-chart

And if you would like to contribute a betting article of your own for the BettingExpert Blog, email to andrew at bettingexpert.com.

After 17 rounds of fixtures (37% of this season's matches) it is a good time to review the betting market for League 2 and try to identify any stand-out recommendations for the title. The current league table shows Southend leading the way with 38 points, followed by Crawley on 36. Cheltenham (32), Shrewsbury (31) and Morecambe (30) are at the top of the chasing group.

I thought it would be a useful exercise to review how league tables in this division generally look at the same stage, and how they can be expected to develop in the months to come.

The last 29 games of the season in recent League 2 history

If we look back at the last five League 2 seasons, from 2006-2007 onwards, here is what we find:

- The first thing we see is that three of the leaders after 17 rounds over the past five seasons went on to lift the trophy. However, in the other two years Brentford came from seventh, and Notts County came from sixth position.

- Only two clubs have achieved a points-return rate of over 70% after 17 rounds of fixtures: Walsall in season 2006/7, and Wycombe two years later. Walsall ended up as one of the three leaders that held on to first place in the table. The Saddlers did this despite their points return efficiency dropping from 74.5% to 58.6% over the remaining 29 matches of the season. However, Wycombe finished their campaign in 2008/9 in third position after a dismal 47.1% points-return rate over the final 29 rounds.

- Much like a 7-furlong horse race, the data seems to suggest that instead of title-winning clubs increasing efficiency (speed) as the line approaches, in reality a gap develops because the remainder of the field reduce their points-return efficiency (slow down). The winner is the horse that slows the least.

- Notable exceptions to this analogy were Hartlepool in 2006/7 who almost managed to double their initial 39.2% success rate to rise 15 places and finish the season in second place on the table. Similarly, Brentford improved by 10.6% to achieve an efficiency of 65% to take the title in 2008/9. Finally, Notts County improved by nearly 20% to 74.7% to take the league title in 2009/10. Other than these three clubs, all remaining improvements by top-eight teams in the final 29 rounds of fixtures were relatively minor.

Season 2011-2012

Based on the last five completed League 2 seasons, the average points-efficiency rate of a top eight club after 17 rounds of matches falls to about 50% for the final 29 matches. The table below shows that If a 50% rate is applied to the current league 2 table then teams below leaders Southend and Crawley will struggle to amass more than 75 points. If a good run-in is considered, with a points-return rate of 60% (such a rate has only been achieved by two top-eight clubs in the last three seasons), then the chasing pack might amass between 81 to 84 points. This is barely enough to beat Southend and Crawley if either can finish with an average (50% points return) or better run-in.

League Standings after 17 matches in 2011-2012

The Contenders

Southend are priced at 9/2 for the title, and Crawley at 11/10. These early leaders therefore account for nearly 70% of the championship betting market. However, the data suggests that in order for a chasing club to beat both Southend and Crawley over the remaining 29 matches to the title, not only does the chasing club have to maintain a rare success rate, but also the two leaders have to deteriorate very badly indeed. The chances look slim.

Looking at the leading challengers, Cheltenham (28/1) are in good form at present. However, only seven of their matches have been played against top-half clubs and three of those were defeats. Mounting a serious challenge looks beyond Cheltenham at the moment.

Shrewsbury (14/1) have met more difficult opponents, but the form on the road looks insufficient to mount a strong challenge. Four defeats away from home would be worrying for their backers, but in their favour a good number of the toughest road fixtures have already been played. Currently the second best goal difference belongs to Morecambe (33/1), but three home wins from eight matches against fairly moderate opponents suggests they will fall short on this league campaign.

Swindon Town (10/1) have been pushing up the table recently, and indeed are the only club to have beaten both Southend and Crawley already. If the away form can improve – four wins from nine matches to date is insufficient – then Swindon could be a team that could break into the top-two places. Swindon may well be the best placed club to challenge for the title. Oxford United (16/1) have only played six fixtures against top-half teams and will have more difficult matches ahead. At the same time, Burton Albion (50/1) have only managed two wins in their eight matches against top-half opponents home and away, and look to have too much to do to win the title.

A two horse race?

Back at the top, Southend are on a storming run, and are picking up victories against all strengths of opposition. Two defeats out of three at fellow top-ten grounds suggest that some wobbles may be on the horizon in the months to come. Crawley are also on a great run, but with only one point from their three visits to fellow top-ten sides they too might have to find another gear.

Last season in league 2, Southend had amassed 19 points from their first 17 matches (37.3% points return efficiency), and they finished on 61 points (an improvement during their last 29 games to an efficiency of 48.2%). Although they have started the season so well, recent history suggests the success rate is more likely to drop than increase in the months to come. Meanwhile, in the Conference Premier 2010-2011, Crawley had a first 17 match efficiency of 70.6% which increased to 79.3% over the remaining 29 matches. With their superior resources, experience of a championship campaign, and excellent start to the season Crawley look to be the team to beat.

Conclusion

It is considered to be unlikely that Crawley can deteriorate enough in form for any team in third place or below to claim the title. Southend currently hold a two-point lead at the top, but look more likely to suffer a reduction in form. Crawley are considered to be a strong selection to win the League 2 title.

Back Crawley to come from second place to win the title at odds of 11/10

Visit Manchild's BettingExpert profile page to see his latest musings, opinions and tips

And you can follow Manchild on Twitter at @Manchild500

If you would like to contribute articles of your own betting analysis, strategy and philosophy for the BettingExpert Blog, send them to Andrew at andrew at bettingexpert.com.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Blue Square Premier League mid-season report

Should you bet on newly promoted clubs?

Should you bet on relegated clubs?

How often do clubs come from behind at halftime?

End of season Champions League betting analysis for 2010-2011

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/league-2-betting-analysis-2011-2012

Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com

Who will succeed at the 2012 Australian Open? Do favourites win more often than not? Which rounds see the value for underdogs? Andrew breaks down the numbers for the 2012 mens tournament down under.

It's still a couple of months before the Australian Open commences at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, but it's the perfect time to breakdown the odds from previous Australian Open tournaments, and see where the bookmakers got it right, where they got it wrong and provide you with some numbers to keep in mind when placing your bets in the 2012 tournament.

So let's get into it.

1st Round

So let's start by looking at how the first round has played out over the previous 10 tournaments, dating back to 2001. We will be assessing a range of odds categories using 'even stakes' to see how each has performed in terms of profit, loss and overall return.

Above you can see that had you bet a single unit on each underdog coming up against a favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.25 in the first round the last 10 tournaments, you would have come away with a combined loss of 53% on your investment. Favourites in this price range have dominated the first round.

We find a different trend when we look at favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 the last 10 years. Had you bet against such favourites, you would have made a handsome 'even stakes' profit of almost 8% over a total of 174 matches.

2nd Round

In round 2 we see a similar story for very short priced favourites between 1.01 and 1.25. While betting on them at 'even stakes' would not have provided you with a profit, betting against them would have been disasterous leaving you with a combined loss of just over 43%.

Also worth noting is that favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 have bounced back in round 2. Whereas they took a beating in round 1, in round 2 over the last 10 tournaments, betting on them at 'even stakes' would have seen you come away with a return of just over 4% from 86 matches.

3rd Round

Round 3 has been the round for favourites at the Australian Open mens tournament the last 10 years.

Betting at 'even stakes' on favourites priced between 1.01 and 1.72 the last 10 years would have seen you come away with a profitable return of just over 7%. A very handsome number. Further, not one favourite priced between 1.01 and 1.10 has been beaten in the 3rd round of the Australian Open over the last 10 tournaments.

And while underdogs in matches with the favourite starting between odds of 1.73 and 1.90 were extremely profitable in terms of return, this result was the product of a sample size of just 9 matches.

4th Round

Round 4 has been generous to favourite backers too, although results have been a little inconsistent.

Short priced favourites have given an 'even stakes' profit of just on 5.6%, with once again not one favourite in this category being beaten in the 4th round the last 10 Australian Open tournaments.

The results have not been so good for favourites priced between 1.11 and 1.25. Betting against these favourites in the 4th round would have given you a return of almost 64% the last 10 tournament.

Lastly, favourites priced between 1.51 and 1.90 have been solid in the 4th round. Betting on these favourites at 'even stakes' would have seen you claim a return of over 10% the last 10 tournaments, though only a small sample size of 22 matches.

The Finals

Betting results have been quite intriguing in the mens tournament of the Australian Open over the last 10 years from the quarter-final stage onwards.

We can see that favourites have performed quite well when priced between 1.01 and 1.25 and between 1.51 and 1.90. Betting at 'even stakes' on these favourites from the Quarter-Final stage onwards, would have seen you take away a profit of almost 12% the last 10 tournaments.

However, favourites priced between 1.26 and 1.50, have performed poorly throughout the finals. Betting against these favourites would have seen you claim a very attractive return of over 81% the last 10 tournaments. And more to the point, over 38% of finals matchups have started with a favourite in this range over the last 10 years, a total of 27 matches.

Games per match

Let's now have a look at the median number of games it took to complete matches given different odds ranges and results.

Overall we can see a steady progression through each odds range, dependant upon whether the favourite or underdog won. When favourites between odds of 1.01 and 1.10 have won, the median result was 28 games, while when they were defeated, as few times as that was, it took the underdog around 40 games to secure the upset victory.

Sets per match.

Lastly, let's look at how many sets we might expect to see given various odds ranges and results.

Above we can see the occurrence for each result when favourites win. We see that the chances of a match ending in a 3 set sweep diminshes steadily as the odds approach even money, while the chances of a 3 to 2 set victory increases as the odds approach even.

The chances of a match ending 3 sets to 1 appears rather consistent when the favourite starts at odds between 1.11 and 1.90 and is victorious, with a 3-1 result occurring roughly 30% of the time.

Above we can see the occurrence rates when underdogs win. Here we see inconsistent results, mainly due to a smaller sample size than when favourites have won. We do however see that the chances of a 3 to 1 set final result once again consistent through odds ranges of a favourite starting between 1.11 and 1.90, with roughly a 40% chances of this result occurring when the underdog wins over the last 10 tournaments.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Who wins the deciding set in a mens tennis match?

What's the worst way to lose a bet?

How to convert odds to their implied probability

How do you start building a betting predictive model?

What side should you bet when a NFL line moves?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/australian-open-mens-tennis-betting-analysis

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

Where can you find out where the genuine smart money is going pre-race? Which horses are receiving the serious heat? This month at BettingExpert we introduce our new Hot Horses feature as part of our developing BE Racing section. Today our racing analyst and editor Stephen tells us how we can make use of this inside knowledge.

BettingExpert is beginning to expand the horse racing section and has introduced a daily Hot Horses feature that should be a huge aid to the more astute punter, whether a conventional bettor or a trader on the exchanges.

These horses will be constantly updated pre-racing and provide a valuable insight into where the warm money is going, both with the traditional layers and on betfair/betdaq.

With my connections from previous senior trading roles in the betting industry, I have a number of contacts within some of the biggest bookmakers in the world. They try constantly to limit and factor down their winning customers, and manage their positions accordingly. By receiving this information, Bettingexpert readers can put themselves one step ahead in the ongoing battle of wits against the old enemy.

There are a number of ways to utilise the hot horses and here are a few suggestions.

1 - CONVENTIONAL BETTING : A Long term view

Many punters enjoy the thrill of watching their bet and following the sport, rather than purely a financial association. With "hot horses" it is possible to turn this pleasure into a profitable pastime. Betfair prices are now an extremely accurate guide to the outcome of races, and by beating this "perfect" price on a regular basis, it is very probable that the punter will emerge in profit over a long period of time.

For example, if we assume those horses that return with a betfair sp of 6-4, (the average price matched for the largest volume of cash), will win around 40 per cent of their races, then any punter securing an early price of 7-4, (a 35 per cent chance), will secure a decent profit on turnover over time.

He can have a long term view that he has secured a price better than the actual chance a horse has, and ride out runs of misfortune and losers that can affect the mindset of many (losing) punters.

The benefit of this approach is that he removes the eroding effect of commision charged by the exchanges on his lay bets he would encounter from trading out of his win bets. Hot horses can be a profitable medium in themselves if able to secure an early price before the tidal wave of follow up support arrives.

2 - TRADING : Snowballing to regular profits

More and more the snowball effect of money is clearly seen with any weight of cash for the "right" horses meeting less and less resistance in pre-race exchanges. This has increased massively in recent years with the "mug" layers dying out and those left surviving forced into accepting shorter and shorter prices as they try and get on. It is arguably a point in time where the value will return to the layers such is way that "demand" outstrips "supply" at the moment.

For our purposes, the hot horses can enable the punter to get into a "no lose" position. For example, he searches around and finds that "hot horse" Ohio Gold is 7-4 with two online firms, he places 400 Euros with both, effectively securing himself a 1400-800 about the selection. Confident in his knowledge of the snowball effect as racetime nears, he puts into lay a 1200-800 on the exchanges.

Provided the price continues to fall as it usually will, he can secure himself the pleasant position of either winning 200 Euros if Ohio Gold obliges or being level if the horse loses.

This is a simplistic view of trading and obviously it is not as easy as this sounds. However by latching onto these warm industry horses in the morning it is very often possible to have an excellent position later on. Incidentally the more astute bettor may decide the price is now ridiculously "short" and end up winning cash by getting the horse beaten and only being level if it wins.

The trader must see his betting in much the same way a stock market trader views any transaction, where the result of the event is effectively removed from the equation. By buying at 10p a share that is now worth 14p, he can ensure he wins regardless of the companies results posted in six months time. He is not interested in the firm/race itself but merely being ahead of the game in terms of price.

3 - BLUFFING : Avoiding the false gambles

Some very successful horse players have often created false morning moves, often when they wish to bet another horse in the race later on at enhanced prices. This can be achieved with very little cash on the exchanges in the morning and lead to all the firms slashing the price across the board. An impression is deliberately created that a huge gamble is happening and "sheep" punters often try to join in, accepting shorter and shorter prices to jump on board.

In the trading office where I worked, we referred to these false dawns as "monday morning" gambles as they often occured on quiet run of the mill mornings when the racing is typically low grade. Later on when "real" cash is traded near the off time, these false moves are often shopped, as the price rapidly drifts out wildly as it becomes apparent that the "demand" actually is mythical.

Pro-gambler Pat Veitch has detailed in his superb autobiography "Enemy Number 0ne" how he has often used these tactics to throw layers off the scent. Lobbing away a few hundred pounds to ensure a price collapses on an unfancied runner before unleashing the real cash at inflated prices later on.

With our hot horses section, Bettingexpert followers can be confident that the warm money has genuinely been placed and that downward momentum on the price is genuine. With traders in particular, who are determined to cut their position and ensure a profit regardless of outcome, this is a vital tool in the ongoing battle with the layers.

Follow BettingExpert's Hot Horses each and every day. How hot are Hot Horses? The last 9 hot horses have been winners. That's how hot.

And you can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61

Enter our £5,000 Horse Racing Tipping Competition. It's on now sponsored by Betfred.

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

10 Horses to follow for National Hunt Season 2011-2012

10 rules to follow to succeed betting on horse racing

How to convert odds to their implied probability

10 Things you need to be successful at betting on sports

What's the best way to manage your betting bankroll?

Link to this post: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/when-to-bet-on-horses-when-their-odds-drop