How often do clubs come from behind at halftime?
How often does the club that leads at half-time go on to win the match in the Premier League? How often do clubs behind at the half manage to come back and draw the match. Or go on to win the match outright? As Premier League season 2011/2012 steps another day closer, Andrew decided to go back and have a look at half-time/full-time results over the past decade and offer a guide for those interested in the football trading markets.
This article has been updated for 2013: How Often Do Clubs Overcome A Halftime Deficit In The Premier League?
What has been the likelihood that the half-time result in a given Premier League match, will correspond with the full-time result?
Well, over the last 10 seasons, that number is about 61%.
25% of that 61% is comprised of away clubs leading at the half that go on to win the match at the end of full-time, around 27% are tied matches at the half ending in a draw, while the remaining 48% is made up of home teams with a half-time lead who then go on to win the match outright.
As the Premier League season approaches, I thought I would take a look back at the last 10 seasons worth of fixtures and post some charts displaying half-time/full-time trends.
I will be looking firstly at how home clubs perform when behind or in-front by one or 'two or more' goals.
And following that, I will begin looking at how favoured clubs perform, firstly looking at clubs at home with favoured odds and then lastly, clubs away from home when favoured against home underdogs.
Home clubs with the lead or behind
Firstly then, let's have a look at how home clubs have performed when either enjoying a lead or confronted with a half-time deficit the last 10 seasons.
We can see that playing at home doesn't do much for the chances of clubs who fall behind by 2 goals or more. Clubs in that situation managed to overcome the deficit just under 3% of the time the last 10 seasons, while managing to claim a draw just under 6% of the time.
What is interesting, is that the winning percentage for away clubs that fall behind at the half by 2 or more goals, is 2.54%, just 0.33% worse than home clubs behind by the 2 goal or more margin at the half.
Things improve for home clubs down by a single goal at half-time, where they have managed to claim either a drawn result or a win just under 38% of the time.
Further we can see that home clubs have had a distinct advantage in matches where the scores were tied at the half. In this situation, home clubs have gone on to win the match just over 37% of the time, while away clubs claim a victory just over 24% of the time coming off a half-time draw.
When home clubs lead by a goal at the half, they go on to win the match around 76% of the time. This is considerably better than away clubs enjoying the same lead at the half, who go on to win just 62% of the time.
Home clubs starting 1.25 or less
Ok, so let's get into it a little deeper. We will first look at half-time/full-time results for home clubs starting as favourites of odds 1.25 or less the last 10 seasons.
We can see that home clubs of this odds range have rarely been behind at the half. In fact on just 4 occasions, or 2.48% of the time of the last 10 seasons. Twice they were able to overcome the deficit.
We also see that these clubs claim a half-time lead just over 62% of the time, and go on to then win the match 96% of the time.
Home clubs starting 1.26 to 1.43
Now let's look at clubs at home starting firm favourites between 1.26 and 1.43. Firstly we can see that the likelihood of clubs in this odds range leading at half-time is just under 54%. And when up they go on to win at just 89% of the time.
Although it's only a sample of 36 matches, we can see that clubs starting between 1.26 and 1.43, fail to win the match almost 70% of the time, and lose the match outright from this position as often as they lose the match.
We can also see that when these clubs find themselves in a tie at half-time, they go on to not only win the match just under 59% of the time, but only lose the match outright just over 8% of the time.
Home clubs starting 1.44 to 1.67
When we look at clubs at home starting at odds between 1.44 and 1.67, we can see that the likelihood of them either being tied or leading at the half is roughly equal, at around the 45% mark.
When they do lead at the half, they are strong finishers, going on to win their matches just over 89% of the time.
Although clubs in this situation have rarely been behind at the half the last 10 seasons, on 40 occasions in all, they have failed to come back to win over 77% of the time, losing the match outright over 42% of the time.
Home clubs starting 1.68 to 2.00
Looking at home clubs starting at odds between 1.68 and 2.00 the last 10 seasons, we see that the probability of them either leading or in a tie at the half to be essentially equal at around 42% of the time.
When in a half-time tie, these clubs have managed to either maintain that result, or go on to win the match around 85% of the time. When down by a goal however, they have only managed a comeback to claim full points 17% of the time, going on to lose the match in just under 56% of matches.
Home clubs starting 2.01 to 2.40
We can see that over the last 10 seasons, clubs starting at odds between 2.01 and 2.40, have been likely to be level with the opposition at the half just under 41% of the time. But when leading at the half, have gone on to win the match, just over 80% of the time.
Although they are more likely than their opponents, to go on to win the match when the scores are level at half-time, (34% to 26%), it has been more the case that these matches will end in a draw, with the result not altering just over 40% of the time.
Also, clubs in this situation who go into the half behind on the scoreboard, only manage to come back to win just over 10% of the time. They do however manage to claim a draw in just under 28% of matches.
Home clubs starting 2.41 to 2.79
In matches where the home club starts at odds between 2.41 and 2.79, with slight or minimal favouritism, we see that the half-time result has been a tie in just over 48% of matches. And even after the interval, the likelihood of the home club going on to win the match is almost equal with the away club doing so, around 32% to 29%.
When home clubs in this situation have led at the half, they have gone on to win in over 70% of matches, only losing outright 5.52% of the time.
When behind at the half, these clubs have managed to come back to win just under 14% of the time, while away clubs with the half-time lead, have managed to hold onto that lead and win at even better rate (71.84%>, although slightly, than home clubs with the lead in this situation (70.34%>.
Away clubs starting 1.43 or less
The first thing we see when we look at favourites of 1.43 or less playing away from home, is that not one time the last 10 seasons, has a club in this situation lead and the half and not gone onto win the match. They are 32 out of 32, for winning rate of 100%.
Just 8 times have favourites away from home of 1.43 or less been behind at the half, and have only managed to comeback to win on 2 of those occasions.
When caught in a tie at the half, these clubs have performed strongly after the break, coming out to eventually win the match in just under 67% of matches, and giving up the match just under 5% of the time.
Away clubs starting 1.44 to 1.67
Again we see that away favourites have performed fairly strongly, going onto hold half-time leads 82% of the time.
They have similarly managed to avoid losses in just over 91% of matches when the scores are tied at the half, winning just under 61% of the time, drawing just over 30% of the time.
Away clubs starting 1.68 to 2.00
Away clubs with starting odds between 1.68 and 2.00 have similarly been strong after the half-time interval, when holding a lead going in. In this situation, they have managed to not lose a single match the last 10 seasons, going on to win the match outright just over 83% of the time.
We can also see that the likelihood of the match being level at the half, is just over 40% and the likelihood of the away club holding on for a draw or an outright win, is 78%.
When falling behind at the half, these clubs have managed to to come back to win just over 20% and claim a drawn result at the same probability.
Away clubs starting 2.01 to 2.40
Once more, we can see that when away clubs are favoured of odds between 2.01 and 2.40, they finish the match well when hold a lead at the half. In this situation, these clubs go on to either win or claim a draw in over 97% of matches.
We can also see that when the scored at locked at the half, the likelihood of either club winning has been almost equal at around 25%, with the chances of a drawn result being 50%.
Away clubs starting 2.41 to 2.79
Finally, let's look at half-time/full-time results when the away club hold slight favouritism of odds between 2.41 and 2.79.
Firstly, we can see that the chances of the half-time result being a tie is just under 50%, with the away club only managing to go on to win the match just under 18% of the time, and result remaining a tie at full-time just under 52%.
We do see however that the away club manages to overcome a half-time deficit to win just over 7% of time, while their home club opposition only manages to overcome being down at the half just under 3% of the time.