Should you bet on clubs promoted to the Top Flight?

Jul 4th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football

bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

Should you bet on clubs that have just been promoted to the 'top flight' of their league? Andrew breaks down the numbers and finds some recent betting trends in the major football leagues of Europe that you might want to take note of.

Each season clubs all over Europe strive to make their way to the top level of competition in their nation's football league. But how do they perform once they are there? More importantly for us sports bettors, how do they compete against the odds once they find themselves up against the giants of European football?

League by League

So let's take a closer look. We will cut up the odds over the last 5 seasons in the English Premier League, Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera, German Bundesliga and Dutch Eredivisie in an attempt to answer the question: Should you bet on or against promoted clubs?

We are going to breakdown the numbers and look at how promoted clubs performed at even stakes. I.e If we bet a single unit on each of the 3 possible outcomes, W, D or L. The odds used have been standardised to 5% bookie commission.

Across the board we see a couple of glaring trends over the last 5 seasons.

1 - Promoted clubs have performed very poorly against the odds when playing away against non-promoted clubs.

In the last 5 seasons, if you had backed home clubs against visiting promotion clubs across the 5 major leagues, you would have made just over 59 units of profit for a % return of 5.5%. That's a pretty good result for following such a simple angle.

The only league to not give a profit in this situation was the Bundesliga with a loss of 16 units, while the Primera and the Premier League were particularly harsh on visiting promoted clubs, combining for almost 63 units for home clubs in this situation, at a return of %12.4.

One explanation for this improved form against the odds of home clubs against newly promoted clubs, could be that the divide between the richer more established clubs and those less fortunate clubs emerging from the lower ranks, is accelerating at a rate more swiftly than what the odds makers and the betting public have been prepared to consider.

2 – Promoted clubs playing away from home have performed poorly against the draw.

The other noteworthy figure is again in games where promoted clubs are playing away from home. Backing the draw in this situation would have seen you lose almost 218 units for a % return of -20.22. This would have been an ideal situation to lay against over the last 5 seasons.

Recently relegated clubs returning

Let's go a step further. Let's have a look at how clubs returning to the top flight within 5 seasons of being relegated have performed against the odds.

Clubs in this situation in 2011/2012 will be:

Hertha BSC - Bundesliga
Real Betis - Primera
Atalanta - Serie A
Siena - Serie A
RKC Waalwijk - Eredivisie

Here we don't see anything particularly striking in comparison to the totals sited above. The one significant difference however is that when re-promoted clubs play at home, there is greater value in the draw. In this situation, backing the draw would have seen you collect a small profit.

Been away too long?

Finally, let's have a look and see how clubs playing in the top flight for the first time or returning after having been away for longer than 5 seasons have performed against the odds. We'll call these clubs 'noobies'.

Clubs in this situation in 2011/2012 will be:

Swansea City - Premier League
Norwich City - Premier League
Queens Park Rangers - Premier League
Augsburg - Bundesliga
Granada - Primera
Rayo Vellecano - Primera
Novara - Serie A

1 - We see here that home clubs playing against visiting 'noobies' have been excellent value the last 5 seasons.

In this situation, you would have made over 30 units of profit the last 5 season for a % return of over 7%. Only one league offered a loss in this situation, and that was the Bundesliga. And even in that case, it was only a loss of almost 3 units.

2 - 'Noobie' clubs at home have done rather well.

So while new clubs have been poor away from home, they have conversely done well at home. In this situation, newly promoted clubs have made a slight profit against their much more fancied opponents. This was particularly true in Italy and Spain where they combined for 22 units of profit, while in Germany the opposite was true for these clubs, losing 16 units.

3 - The other situation to take note of was the home draw for 'noobies'.

Backing the draw in this situation would have seen you lose 55 units at even stakes, for a % return loss of over 13%, a nice situation to lay against.

Concluding thoughts

Obviously, I am not going to recommend that anyone follow these trends blindly. We should never consider the odds (or the line) to be a constant. What we are doing here is trend analysis and as trends become more apparent, the odds makers will adjust accordingly.

But these trends are something that we should perhaps keep in mind going into next season, particularly in the Primera and Premier League where the divide between the richer clubs and seems to be accelerating at a greater pace. These trends might very well still be on the upward swing and offer the opportunity for sharp bettors to get in before the broader betting public becomes aware.

Or they could be just mere coincidence.

It will be interesting to see which it is as the new season develops. I know I will be keeping an eye on it.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

Click here for the BettingExpert 2012/2013 Football Stats Guide. Detailed stats for the 8 biggest leagues of Europe.