Dealing with a losing run in betting
PROFILE UPDATE! (October 23, 2012 - Read more) ABOUT ME: ------------ My nickname is poglavica and I'm 40 years old from Zadar, Croatia. I'll provide you with detailed coverage o...
How do we deal with losing runs in betting? We're bound to have them. It's part of the job description as they say. Today on the blog, BettingExpert community member Poglavica shares his experiences with losing runs and how to bounce back when they come.
If you would like to contribute an article yourself, email andrew at bettingexpert.com
A few weeks ago, I had one of the worst weekends in my entire betting career. As much as we love winning runs, at some point in betting, you will also have to deal with losing streaks.
Now, there are several methods to deal with such losing runs. It’s like in real life - sometimes everything you touch turns to gold. Other times you're probably better off not leaving your house should your bad luck continue in a most unfortunate way. If you ever should experience such a bad run, that doesn’t mean that you’re a bad tipster. Not at all. But dealing with such runs in the wrong way, makes you a bad tipster.
Let’s look at that awful run of mine. That weekend, I won a lousy 8 of 25 bets, which makes a strike rate of measly 32.0%. Let’s convert those numbers into real money. By investing 1000.00 split across 25 bets, with only 8 winning bets at average odds of 2.00, you would have made a net loss of 360! Repeat such a weekend another two times and your net loss would be a considerable amount of 1080.00 . I’m sure everyone of us has better ideas of what to do with so much money.
What not to do when a losing streak hits
So, what is the best way to deal with such losing runs? Let’s first look at how not to deal with such runs. Let's consider the two most common traps inexperienced gamblers (tipsters) might fall into. The first common mistake is to chase your losses. The second one is quitting gambling (betting) entirely by accepting that your entire investment has gone up in smoke.
Chasing losses is the last thing you should do to deal with your losing streaks. In a mad moment, you decide to swiftly regain your lost money. By increasing your stakes or amount of bets, you’ve decided to chase your losses. The chances that this method will work are equal to the chances that you will lose more money even quicker than you lost your money before you decided that chasing your losses would be a good idea. After all, a losing run also leads to lack of confidence in your own abilities. You will begin to ask yourself questions, like what went wrong or why your hand made system doesn’t work anymore. Now, even if it may be wise in some situations to quit betting, that doesn’t bring back your money, so this is already a no-go.
What to do when a losing a streak hits
If you have established the right strategy before even starting to bet, you would automatically have avoided the above two pitfalls. At the very bottom of the BE page, you can read the following sentence:
“Copyright © 2004-2011 BettingExpert.com. All rights reserved. | Disclaimer, Contact us | Mail | Mail | Never risk money you can't afford to lose!”
Neither the Copyright, nor the Contact Us or the Disclaimer is what is important here. What really matters is the last sentence: “Never risk money you can't afford to lose!” That’s the first golden rule in betting. By living your betting life with the mentioned rule, you are already prepared for the worst losing runs. As everyone in the betting business knows, losing runs come without warning or disclaimer. Second golden rule is discipline. If you feel that the danger for another losing run is too high, just take a break until you regain your confidence. It doesn’t matter how long or short such a break lasts.
See the big picture
The better option of self-discipline is to see the bigger picture. That could mean that you should have faith in your own system or in your own approach to betting. As an example, it doesn’t make sense to throw away your system, if the same has shown good results in the long-term. Long-term is the crucial word in betting. Although a nice combo with combined odds at 217.5 with 100 something invested would bring you a nice profit of around 21.650, how many similar bets have you won in your betting life? Exactly. You can count such bets with the fingers of one hand. If you've been lucky.
The better approach is to play singles, or if necessary to keep your combos reasonable small, let’s say with 3-5 bets, multiplying identified value. But you would be surprised how often I have seen people leaving the local bookie store with “tickets” running the length from their own chin to their heels, with around 32 bets on such a ticket. Rest assured that you’ve just seen a loser leaving that place. That’s just one of the 98% from which all the bookies make their profit. That said, forget the fast money. Successful betting is a long-term matter.
Maintain your work ethic
What I usually do when suffering such losing streaks is that I pick my bets even more carefully than before. The process of my analysis takes longer, and the time spent to find the right bet increases significantly. As already mentioned, you could also take a break in betting. But I don’t mean a break by doing nothing. No, au contraire. Make your analysis as you would normally do, and play your bets just on paper and follow if you get the desired results. That way you can try out your strategy and make the right decision.
Keep a record
While talking about paper we touched the third important rule in betting. Track your bets, and your wins as much as the losses. You will be surprised how much you learn about your strategy by looking over the archived results. Historical results are not only important in your decisions for a bet, no, they are also important in your betting discipline. You might find out that your system or your strategy had the same poor performance at the same time of the year as your current losing run. That can have various reasons such as weather conditions or changes within teams. This gives you additional insights into your strategy/system.
To sum up, money management, discipline, and record keeping are the golden rules for successful betting in the long term.
Losing runs included.
Visit Poglavica's BettingExpert profile page to see his latest musings, opinions and tips
If you would like to contribute articles of your own betting analysis, strategy and philosophy for the BettingExpert Blog, send them to Andrew at andrew at bettingexpert.com.
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A really nice article Poglavica. We've all hit those losing streaks from time to time. Some important things to keep in mind when they come along. Looking forward to seeing more articles from the rest of the BE community on the blog.
Very good article!
Excellent article - especially about keeping a record of your previous bets, as quite often the key to future good bets lay in your own record of histroical ones!