Hold Your Nerve On Next Manager Markets
May 24th, 2012 - Posted by ScottFerguson in Betting Theory, Football
Sport, betting, controversy, occasional TV/radio betting pundit.
How do you profit from betting on Next Manager markets? Today on the blog, Scott Ferguson gives us six pointers on how to bet these volatile off-season trading markets.
Some folks run for the hills when these markets show up on Betfair, but to others they are an absolute goldmine. Some guys dive in heavily laying the short-priced favourites, others try to lay as many runners as possible to build a nice healthy green book. I am firmly in the latter category on both counts and here are some pointers on how to master these markets.
1. This Is The Most Obvious Market Where Some People Know More Than Others.
Two of my maxims of betting are that there will always be someone with better information than me, and there will always be someone with faster information than me. It is extremely naive to think that you know more about an event than every other punter on that market and then there's the issue of faster pictures/information streams. Here it's mostly about the fact that a select few people will have genuine information about what is going on within the club. Everyone else is guessing. Media outlets have to sell papers, retain viewers, gain followers etc. Nobody holds them to task when they get a story wrong. Keep a tally of how many transfer rumours they get right over the course of a year. It is no different with Next Manager markets.
There has been one high-profile case of a bent Next Manager market - the Portsmouth job in 2005 when Harry Redknapp returned from Southampton. He was on live TV saying there was no way he would take the job, and at the same time, people in the know, within the club, were backing him heavily while everyone who took the information at face value was trying to lay him. Rules in the Premier League have changed since then. Easy solution - steer clear of a market when Harry is a serious contender.
2. Leave Backing To The Mugs, This Is All About Laying
These markets are all about rumours on Sky Sports News, Twitter, in the papers and any other remotely credible source. Mugs love the rumours, from the downright ridiculous to the tenuously credible. Bookies love stirring the market up by saying they've seen support from Bloke X and his price has crashed from 25/1 into 4s… probably with a whole fifty quid changing hands. Even better are the claims that they've suspended betting on someone because he's locked in for the job… meanwhile he's trading close to evens on Betfair.
Change your mindset, this is all about laying. Set yourself a moderate risk amount - say £30. Start from the top of the market and lay a few. This is the most volatile market you can imagine, let the market come to you, don't be impatient. Keep your eye on how much liquidity is available. If it's just £2 and £5 offers ahead of you, don't bother to jump ahead of them - if someone wants to place a decent bet, they'll need to sweep up several offers anyway. Once your green starts building up on those you are yet to lay, increase the price you are prepared to lay at. So if initially you started at laying no higher than 10, once you have +30 on the rest of the field, you can then lay a few quid at up to 20 (remember your initial risk limit was £30, so you can risk £60). If there are gaps on the screen - e.g. prices of 5,7,14 offered, then step into the gap with an offer around 9.
The more guys you lay, the better your book will become. This is a huge margin market. Lay small, lay often, but do not go chasing the market. Let it come to you. A quick look over the price history graphs will give you an idea of just how volatile these markets are. And when a price starts moving, think about how much momentum it has left. You might think the rumour you read on Twitter at 10pm had crushed the price as much as it could. But if a big site/newspaper picks up that rumour, then there could be a lot more legs in the story.
3. Clubs Who Have The New Manager Already Lined Up Are Few And Far Between
There are very few markets of this type where there are not several genuine contenders for the job. Rarely is there a club who has a manager or even a shortlist before they sack a bloke, and rarely are there negotiations which are completed within hours. New managers want to bring in their own staff, guys they are comfortable working with. If they are already in a job, then their club needs to give permission to speak to the other one and compensation needs to be negotiated.
It is far more likely there will be several guys fighting for favouritism in the first few days. Markets for Next Tottenham and Next Ireland Manager in recent years have had at least five guys trade at odds-on, with several others in single digits. Absolute money for jam. The business tycoons who take over Premier League clubs (with the probable exception of Blackburn) these days haven't made their money by luck, they run proper businesses conducting due diligence, following all the right processes etc. They don't put all their eggs in one basket, they want to find the best person for the job, and that usually means speaking to several candidates.
4. Rumours Are Fantastic, Be On The Right Side Of Them
Almost invariably, you want to be on the laying side of rumours. With three manager jobs on Betfair at the moment, let's examine what we have seen in the last few days: Aston Villa owner's private plane in Norway to speak to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, trading down as low at 1.2. He is a young manager, currently secure in a job in his home country, and midseason. Making the move to the big league too early could be very toxic for his career. He'd want to bring several of his backroom staff with him. Lerner flew over to him because he has the resources to do so. Being early in the process, it was highly likely that there were several other candidates on the list. We are still in May and there is a major tournament just a few weeks away, where managerial contracts often end. There is no rush to sign someone tomorrow, they've escaped the relegation battle, now they can sit back and take stock of the situation in order to make the right decision for the long-term.
Andre Villas-Boas was allegedly signing for Liverpool on Tuesday night in the trendy Hope St Hotel. Utter bunkum. Liverpool's owners have declared they wish to speak to several candidates. Roberto Martinez was allegedly flying to the States earlier in the week to speak to them. Liverpool is a big, big club with a reputation capable of snaring many managers who will be working at the Euros. John Henry and co mightn't know football as well as they know baseball, but they do understand turning over every stone in order to find the right candidate. Villas-Boas may well turn out to be that guy, but there was no way they are going to sign him so soon. He went odds-on briefly, madness!
5. Use Logic To Determine Who Would Be A Good Fit For The Club
There are managers who will tart themselves around in the media every time a Premier League job comes up - Sven Goran Eriksson, Slaven Bilic etc. Then are those guys who the bookies will throw in every single time - Martin O'Neill, Alan Curbishley, Rafa Benitez, Steve Bruce, followed by the young guys who are making their mark and could be interested in stepping up - Andre Villas-Boas, Brendan Rogers, Gus Poyet, Roberto Martinez. Some club owners demand a successful track record, others look for potential or someone who can work miracles with a tight budget. Look at managers with links to the club, either as a player or as a friendship to someone in the current administration.
Don't be afraid to post some offers to back at silly prices, i.e. 1000. If you get matched at a huge price, it doesn't take much to be able to trade that out. Use logic to look at who might be available, do a bit of research on whose contract is running out, who is getting frustrated with a lack of backing from their board etc. Some managers will never leave mid-contract, others like Steve Bruce and Ian Holloway have been known to jump ship whenever a cheque book is pulled out. Some managers play the beautiful style of football, others do whatever it takes to secure the results they need, and this doesn't always make the board or the fans happy.
6. Spread Your Risk And Don't Get Caught Out
As mentioned earlier, keep laying for small risk and as many selections as possible. If you are going offline for a while, don't leave any big positions up. There is always the chance that the market will go all one way very quickly, so don't get caught with your pants down. Use small offers as 'markers' to see who is interested. Let's say you've built up a book of +£200 on most of the field. Bob Smith shows a best price of 36 to back and you are keen to add him to your lays. Don't blow your whole green in one go - offer £2 at 38, wait for it to be snapped up then reload, perhaps £3 at 30 and so on. If there's a sudden rush on this guy, you are in position to lay again at a much lower number, bringing in more stakes from the opposing punters and improving your margin overall.
Slow and steady wins the race. Don't overcommit with risk when we all know there are people out there who have access to better information. Hold your nerve, price volatility is king in this market. Let the mugs do the backing - if you're prepared to offer them a reasonable price, you will see action and plenty of it when those rumours are flying.
You can follow Scott on Twitter : @borisranting
And check out his blog : SportIsMadeForBetting.com
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Appreciate your opinions Andrews mine is that we should let the jerk's that never made it betting continue blogging not you obviously. I am quite disappointed with the level of blogging around here these days it gets no reaction what so ever besides from the admins. Except Stephens work, he talks betting theory but then applies it and provides winners and it not very often he don't get a reaction. Andrew by the way thanks for making me the only tipster on the site you make aware about an article which states clearly in the first Paragraph that betting on next managers is for mugs, on a next manager pick very clever of you mate. Hope the blogging around here improves soon. GL
Andrew I am glad you support your fellow admins indirectly calling your tipsters mugs didn't expect much more.. As I said people don't come to be for theory, it's about winners..
Quite liked the piece myself. It's always good to be reminded to be patient and hold your nerve and maintain focus on the overall goal - making a profit, especially important in a market like this where rumours are flying around like nobodies business. Let the jerks make knee-jerk reactions to the market. Good stuff!
By far the worst 3 minutes of my life reading this, patronising and very uninformative when reading between the lines.. You say betting on next managers is for mugs, I bet on next managers does that make me a mug in your so called expert eyes.. For me it's a matter of opinions I think people that waste their time reciting information (theory) widely available on the Internet and re-writing it like they are in the know is for mugs, think it just a matter of opinions.. Personal feeling on this article is that your time might be better served spending 3 hours writing an article consisting of a number of winners instead of theory, that's what people come here for... To many people talking betting theory like experts these days but all we get is bs never any actual picks, my personal opinion on theoryologists in betting is bs, to write something like this you would have to be an expert, betting is all about opinions and real experts will be chilling on beaches in Miami surrounded by skirt not writing blogs and exposin their systems to the world.. Just my opinion like yours that betting on next managers is for mugs, by the in order to win money in the way u say above not only would you need alot of time on your hands you would also need alot of money in your pocket as you will be earning maybe a pound for every ten pound risked.. GL
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I thought it was a good read aswell to be honest the game. A lot of punters (including myself) can value whispers over what they see with their own eyes, and is very tempting to jump on bandwagon's once the rumour mill gets started. I now try, if someone tells me something, to be a contrarian and find a reason to do exactly the opposite. We must remember that we are all trying to help one another and not to take things personally...there is only one mutual enemy...the bookmaker!!