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NBA Expert Picks and Predictions

The NBA is the most popular and exciting league in the world! Global basketball superstars like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Kevin Durant,  Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic make every game a must-watch. You are at the right place if you are looking for NBA expert picks.

Check out our predictions from the bettingexpert community, all 100% free.

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NBA Fixtures

The best basketball league in the world is back with several derby games. First, the Western Conference will feature an unbelievable clash. It’s the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets matchup and the fight for the leadership. The same goes for the first two spot-holders in the Eastern Conference.

Although the Celtics are far ahead of everyone else, the Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks is something that cannot go without memorable moments. Moreover, a duel that also brings a lot of attention is the Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks faceoff.

Jokic vs LeBron NBA

The Knicks have performed well in their Conference. The Warriors’ games have been somewhat similar, so fans should prepare for more showtime here. Finally, the Lakers and the Hawks may not rank high in their Conferences, but it’s always interesting to see them on the court.

You can bet on the Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks clash, the other ones we listed here, and many more. Along the way, you may check our NBA betting tips and expand your horizons even further.

The  MVP title prediction will be even harder than last year but bookies still favour Nikola Jokic as the top pick. Some people think that Victor Wembanyama is one of the contenders but the last time a rookie won MVP title was over 60 years ago.

NBA Winner Odds

Among our NBA expert picks, you will find winner predictions. The odds differ depending on the bookmaker but most of them favour Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics. Miami Heat is among the top 5 teams and they are definitely one of them that could surprise the favourites.  Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers are nowhere on the list but Luka Doncic is looking great after the Basketball World Championship, so a lot is expected from him.

Winner Odds bet365 Paddy Power Unibet BoyleSports 10bet
Denver Nuggets 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2
Boston Celtics 19/4 9/2 11/2 5 19/4
Phoenix Suns 13/2 6 6 13/2 13/2
Milwaukee Bucks 6 11/2 11/2 6 6
Miami Heat 10 8 8 10 10
Golden State Warriors 12 9 12 12 11
Los Angeles Lakers 12 9 14 12 10
Philadelphia 76ers 15 12 18 18 15
Los Angeles Clippers 16 12 16 20 16

*Odds are subject to change prior to the start of the competition.

Most bookies also have the option to combine league winner bets with other NBA picks, so you can check other match previews as well before making a bet. Our NBA picks are usually posted on the same day or a day before the match starts. Make sure you are updated with the latest information in order to increase your chances of winning.

NBA Betting Stats

If you are serious about your tips, it’s important to understand the biases reflected in betting markets. Examining a large sample size of stats can help you identify betting angles other bettors and tipsters are missing. There wouldn’t be NBA expert picks if it wasn’t for the stats gathered every year. Each game is carefully examined and data is collected which you can use for your betting picks. Following betting trends can give you an edge but it takes a lot of time and experience to recognize which stat matters at the moment.

Straight Up Win-Loss NBA Stats

The table below displays the win-loss percentages for NBA teams across a number of situations since the 2007 NBA season. We can see that home teams almost 60% of games in the NBA which is one of the highest home advantages in American sports. Sometimes looking at the average teams like the New York Knicks might be a good idea because the odds will always be higher when betting only on 1×2.

Situation WIN PCT LOSS PCT
Home Teams 59.5% 40.5%
Away Teams 40.5% 59.5%
Favourites 69.1% 30.9%
Underdogs 30.9% 69.1%
Home Favourites 71.0% 29.0%
Home Underdogs 35.1% 64.9%
Away Favourites 64.9% 35.1%
Away Underdogs 29.0% 71.0%
After A Win 53.9% 46.1%
After A Loss 46.0% 54.0%
With More Rest 55.5% 44.5%
After 1 Days Rest 51.6% 48.4%

NBA Stats Against The Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NBA is to bet against the spread. As we can see from the data below, there has been no clear advantage for teams playing across a range of situations since the 2007 season. While we saw that teams playing with an advantage in rest won almost 56% of games played, that advantage was not mirrored when playing against the market, in which case such teams covered the spread just under 50% of the time.

Situation WIN PCT LOSS PCT
Home Teams 49.6% 50.4%
Away Teams 50.4% 49.6%
Favourites 50.2% 49.8%
Underdogs 49.8% 50.2%
Home Favourites 49.8% 50.2%
Home Underdogs 49.1% 50.9%
Away Favourites 50.9% 49.1%
Away Underdogs 50.2% 49.8%
After A Win 49.4% 50.6%
After A Loss 50.6% 49.4%
With More Rest 49.6% 50.4%
After 1 Day Rest 50.2% 49.8%

Over Under NBA Betting Stats

Points totals in the NBA can vary between south of 180 points to north of 240 points depending on the playing styles of the teams involved. Since the 2007 NBA season, we can see that there has been a slight advantage for bettors who have bet the Under, particularly in Division and Playoff games, in which almost 52% of games ended going under the total. Of course, this depends on the team like the Miami Heat or Boston Celtics that tend to have solid defense but not that good to stop top players.

Situation OVER WIN PCT UNDER WIN PCT
Conference Games 49.4% 50.6%
Division Games 48.3% 51.7%
Playoff Games 48.3% 51.7%
Non-Conference Games 49.2% 50.8%
Non-Division Games 49.6% 50.4%
Regular Season Games 49.4% 50.6%

NBA Betting Tips

NBA teams play 82-season games, so even before the excitement of the playoffs and the final, there is an abundance of weekly games to bet on and plenty of our free NBA picks to take full advantage of!

When consistently betting on any sport it is advisable to employ a sports betting strategy. The bettingexpert Academy can help with forming a strategy. Our NBA Betting Guide is detailed and concise, and you will find everything you need to improve your predictions by checking it out.

Here are a few pointers from our free NBA betting guide:

  • Only Bet When There’s Value – This makes sense, but sometimes people like to bet on NBA picks because they like a certain team even if there’s no real value in the bet.
  • Specialise – The league offers a multitude of betting markets. Find out what market you enjoy the most and have the most success with, and focus your attention on it.
  • Keep A Record – Maintaining a record of your prior wagers enables you to see where you might have gone wrong, and also allows you to get a clear picture of what markets you excel at.

More specific NBA-related advice includes:

Do Your Preseason Research

The more you know about the sport of basketball, the luckier you will become in your predictions. Preseason, find out which teams have strengthened their squads and which have lost key players. There is usually a buzz around specific teams long before a ball has been pitched, and this will often be an insight into early success on the field and maybe even throughout the season.

NBA Computer Picks

Even if computer picks can be great because you are taking the statistics as the main factor for your bets, computer picks work only in cases when nothing changed before the last game. Even then, every game is unpredictable to a certain extent. You can’t use statistics for the finals by looking at what happened in the past decade because for each finals things change a lot, new players and ways of playing basketball are changing.

Picks Against the Spread

One of the most common things people bet on when it comes to NBA picks are picks against the spread. NBA sportsbooks offer a lot of options but most played are picks against the spread for the teams and players. You can check top NBA sportsbooks at the bottom and see what the picks against the spread look like. Most NBA picks on bettingexpert will include picks against the spread as one of the tips.

Check Head-to-Head Matchups

One of the best ways of forecasting a result is by examining their previous Head-to-Head matches. By seeing the previous six results between two teams that are scheduled to meet, one can often form a solid opinion as to the outcome of their latest meeting.

If you would like to know more, visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our basketball betting guide.

Past NBA Champions and Regular Season Win Total

SEASON CLUB  WINS
2022/23 Denver Nuggets 53
2021/22 Golden State Warriors 53
2020/21 Milwaukee Bucks 46
2019/20 Los Angeles Lakers 52
2018/19 Toronto Raptors 58

Bookmakers For Betting On NBA

It wasn’t always the case, but these days it’s not too hard to find a top online bookmaker who caters in-depth for fans of NBA predictions and comes armed with expert picks.
When choosing your online bookmaker try and stick to the well-established names you are familiar with, and be sure that your bookmaker provides these four key elements:

  • Consistently Competitive Odds
  • A Wide Range Of Betting Markets
  • All Major Competitions Covered
  • Extensive In-Play Betting Markets

To find the ideal bookmaker for your tips, be sure to read our detailed bookmaker reviews.

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