blog » Top 10 Betting Sayings - Truth Or Myth

Top 10 Betting Sayings - Truth or Myth?

Feb 16th, 2012 - Posted by Stephen in Betting Theory

Racing Editor for BettingExpert. Always searching for winners "against the crowd" and trying to find the value.

Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com

We've heard them all before. Never bet odds-on. Gambling is a mugs game. Racing is fixed. We hear them so often, they've almost become nonsensical. But are they just cliches without validity or do they hold some truth. Today on the blog, Stephen looks at 10 popular betting sayings and tells us - are they truth or myth?

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1- Gambling is a mugs game - MYTH

Betting is not a mugs game in the modern age. Perhaps, in years gone by when margins were hugely against the punter, they were effectively and routinely "mugged" of their money. But in the age of the internet and massive competition between an ever growing number of online companies, it is fair to say that punters have "never had it so good". The secret for any successful punter is discipline and specialising. If these can be harnessed in tandem with finding the best prices, then the mug's game can fast become a source of income.

2- Always bet the outsider of three - MYTH

One of the most oft-quoted sayings in the world of horse racing, whenever a three horse race happens wise old heads can be heard muttering this. However the stats do not bear this out in any way. In fact betting the rag in small fields delivers the largest losses of all (a bet on the favourite at SP shows the smallest). In these exhange driven times the "pefect" actual prices do tend to be reached by the off of most races, something that means finding value against the crowd has become harder and harder!

3- You Cant Eat Value -TRUE

A very annoying quote that is self evidently true. I recall this saying with particular amusement from my days as an on-course layer at the greyhounds in England. My financial partner at the time was suffering alongside me as favourite after favourite won at one of the busiest meetings of the year. We were down in the region of £10,000 and the punters were really playing up their winnings race to race. I explained carefully that the next favourite was going to be ridiculously short, badly drawn with a tight railer outside of it and with no experience of running behind this unique hare at Reading. Anyway to cut a painful story short, the dog in question pinged out the traps and duly won by ten lengths. My partner could be heard loudly muttering as he paid out the 30-40 punters in a very long queue "You can't eat this value". It has stayed with me ever since, however if you always get value for your money betting over-time you will show a long term profit, regardless of any "blips"!

4- Racing is all fixed - MYTH

Something often heard in betting shops up and down the land as punters try to explain why they have lost their cash on a poor selection. The idea that races are pre-arranged and something is not-trying or out of the way has been around since racing began. It provides an excuse for losing and in general is a mindset that is not at all helpful when trying to find winners. It is far better to believe what you see with your own eyes and bet accordingly with the view that everything is trying its best. Specialise in areas where you get to understand the traits of certain trainers and what a positive move in the betting means.

5- Never bet odds-on - MYTH

This argument goes that you need such a high win-rate to succeed that all punters end up losing when they regularly bet odds on. This did indeed have merit, but if one is selective and only bet odds on when the time is right (i.e ahead of the move inwards in price), then there is value to be had. There is little doubt that odds-on chances where the merits are well established of all the contenders offers very little margin for profit. For example, if Chelsea are at home to Brighton and are 1.16 to win the match in 90 mins it is very hard to argue that that price offers much juice. Yet punters will still pile in and put them in multiple bets etc up and down the land. Odd-on traders have the advantage that these very short priced runners command the vast majority of the liquidity on the exchanges. For example a 1-12 chance on the all-weather recently saw 954,000 traded on it out of a total of 998,000 on the entire race. If you can read the signals correctly it is possible to have an "all green" winning position before the event is run.

6- Drifters never win - MYTH

Another myth that the easing out in price is a sure-sign that the horse/team in question is not "off" or trying today. People see the price getting bigger and bigger and assume something is amiss. When such a "drifter" then gets beaten they immediately cry foul. However, as long as the punter is switched on to a wide range of factors i.e the horse hasn't got loose and is running round the course, or the ground has suddenly changed against it after heavy rain, then if the drift means the price is now his idea of value he is entitled to bet. In the long run betting outcomes at a bigger price than they should be is the only way to win.

7- You never see a poor bookmaker - MYTH

The idea that being a layer is the road to riches is based on old ideas eminating from the wealth created by the original bookmakers and the vast empires they built. One of the highest profile independents was John Banks who famously described betting shops as "money printing factories" and in the good old high margin days they certainly were. William Hill was another of the original on-course rails pioneers who built up a massive company from nothing, something which has expanded into one of the largest online firms today. These tales of success fuel the notion that the layer never loses, drives an expensive car, smokes cigars and lives on the golf course. However, while some huge firms have become bigger and bigger, the small scale bookie is a dying breed. He faces increasing costs and falling turnover in a cashless age, combined with a dramatic fall in profit margin as he tries to compete with the exchanges. To survive he must be sharper than ever and understand exactly what prices things really are and what price he can afford to trade at. i.e have an excellent opinion. The first layer I did the "hod" for was a classic example of the failed layer. He was fine when in front but as soon as he was losing he chased and chased, laying the favourite for more and more to try and "get out". This doomed strategy was bound to end in tears, and utimately it did. On his last night at the dogs he "borrowed" 400 pounds to trade with and disappeared without paying the punters halfway through the meeting.

8- To be a successful gambler you have to have a complete disregard for money - TRUE

I have decided after much thought that this controverisal statement is actually true!. While the discipline needed for successful wagering is essential, I do believe there needs to be a conversion into "units" one is using rather than viewing the betting money as something one needs to pay the gas bill or buy the wifes birthday present. Removing emotion from any transaction is essential. One needs to be hard headed about price and not feel a sense of attachment to anything other than getting value over a long period of time. Money must become a unit of measuring ones betting success and seperate from the daily needs of living. For that reason keeping records of every bet as essential and seperating betting funds from daily living funds are a good idea.

9- Money won is twice as sweet as money earned - TRUE

Of course the actual worth is the same, but there is a great sense of achievement when ones judgement is rewarded financially from a succesful wager. That sense of vindication has to be tempered to ensure it doesn't become over confidence. I have found to my cost that times when betting is going well is often by far the most dangerous. One mentally relaxes and assumes that this profit will always come easily and without the required dedication and focus. It is all too easy to relax and suddenly those hard earnt wins can start disappearing rapidly.

10- Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect - TRUE

Mentally weathering the losing run that we all suffer is the hardest part for any punter. A very strong mind is needed and a deep rooted conviction that things are being done properly and the tide will turn. Fortune is a factor in this game and one of the wisest players I ever met, Johnny "Lights" Herndall warned me that "this game tames lions". It is important to develop strategies and stay with them in certain specialised areas of expertise. Don't spread yourself too thinly and try and avoid dwelling on bad events. The last flight faller in racing is often the hardest thing to overcome, with everyone feeling that burning temptation to chase losses by playing on the next race. But to find success one needs to be consistent, unemotional and level headed. Saty focussed on doing things right and the good and bad luck will even itself out over a long period.

You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61