2011 FA Cup Final Analysis
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
So we come once again to the the FA Cup Final, the game that's become a little like Christmas Day: it seemed so much more magical when I was a kid. Yes, it's lost a little bit of its shine over the years with the focus on all things Europe, but hey, it's still the FA Cup Final, and there will still be two teams, a lot of fans, hopes dashed, aspirations fulfilled, tears, joy and a whole lot of cliches I am only just getting into. Because?......It's that kind of day.
As much as I love a good bit of hyped up over-historical-signifification and commentators coming close to suggesting that the losers of this game might be psychologically crippled for the remainder of their lives, this year cup does at least give us an unusual match-up. Unusual in that, the fans of the teams competing actually would love to win this game and add some silverware to the trophy cabinet as opposed to fans of let's say Chelsea, Man United et al who let's be honest usually have higher aspirations on their minds this time of year.
Both Stoke and Manchester City haven't won much of late. Sure Man City last won an elite trophy back in 1976 when they won the League Cup. And in 1970 when they won the European Cup Winners Cup. And to qualify for the European Cup Winners Cup,Man City did actually win the FA Cup the previous year of 1969.
As for Stoke, well this game would be one they'd love to win. They did of course win promotion back to the Premier League in 2008, but they did that by being runners up in The Championship. And they last won a title back in 1993 when they claimed the 2nd division title, which was their third 2nd division title win.
So either way you cut it, this game means something to the teams involved, and that always gets me a little excited. (Now watch this segway) And what else gets me excited anyway you cut it, are stats and odds and breakdowns of all sorts for the big game.
The clubs have met 7 times since Stoke's promotion back into the Premier League, with 5 of those meetings being Premier League fixtures. In those 5 meetings, Man City has won twice, Stoke once and the clubs drawing in the most recent two encounters. Both clubs had their better results when playing at home. Looking at the Over/Under 2.5 goals, the clubs have gone under that total in their last 4 encounters, with the under being favoured around the 1.75 mark in the last 2 of those meetings.
To get an idea of each club's form, we will look at their last 25 Premier League games from a few different angles. Man City's form has been solid over their last 25, earning them 45 league points. We can also see that they have generally set their wins up early, with their overall goal difference just 2 more than their half-time goal difference.
Stoke have claimed 36 league points in their last 25 games. They've gone Under 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 25 and while coming away with a plus 8 goal difference, they are averaging just over 1 less shot on target than their opponents through that span. They've also looked to keep it tight in the opening half, with 13 of their 25 games remaining drawn at the half.
AGAINST THE ODDS
When we have a look at how the clubs have performed against the odds for the entire Premier League season, we see that when favoured between 1.65 and 2.00 (as they are in the Final) Man City have a 2-1-3, and as favourites of any kind they are 16-6-5. When we look at how they have faired at even stakes (which is hypothetically betting a single unit of each possible outcome), we see that the better value has been on Man City to either win or draw, with backing against them leaving you in a bit of a hole.
Meanwhile Stoke have a reasonably good record when underdogs between 3.70 and 5.50 as they are in this match-up. In these situations this entire Premier League season, they boast a 3-2-2 record. They are however 6-3-15 when underdogs of any kind. But Stoke have performed well at even stakes in their last 25. If you placed a single unit on Stoke to win in each of their last 25 games, you would have made just over a 5 unit profit, about a 20% return.
In terms of Over and Under's this season, both teams have made a profit at even stakes. Man City have been solid in their last 25 games going over, making a slight profit at even stakes, while Stoke has done the opposite, making an even stake profit on the under 2.5 goals. And just as a note of interest, both teams have averaged 2.56 total goals in their last 25 Premier League games.
HOW MANY GOALS WILL THEY SCORE?
Half-time stats for the last 20 Finals have shown the game to be very tight early. There have only been 2 first half goals scored in any one game twice in the last 20 Finals. Both of those were in the last 5 Cup Finals, with West Ham going into the half 2-1 up on Liverpool in 2006 and Chelsea and Everton tied at 1-1 in the 2009 Final.
Regulation time goals have likewise been on the low side in the last 20 Finals, with just 5 of those 20 games going over 2.5 goals. We can also see that 13 of 20 results have ended in total goals for regulation time being either 2 or 1. This runs true to Stoke's form in their last 25 Premier League games, with 11 of their 25 results ending in a 2 goal total.
WHEN WILL THEY SCORE?
Man City have looked to score early. They've scored 26 of their 41 goals in the opening half of action, and just over 25% of their total goals in the opening 15 minutes of play. And then another 11 between the 26th and 40th minute mark. Of the 23 goals they have surrendered, 12 of those, just over half, have come after the 66th minute.
Stoke have been slow starters, with just 5 of their 36 goals coming in the opening 25 minutes. However, 10 of their 36 goals havecome between he 26th minute and the close of the 1st half. They have also scored late, with another 10 of their goals coming after the 81st minute. Of goals they have given up, 25% of those have come after the 76nd minute. But of note here, is the face they have given up 6 goals, 21% of their total surrendered, in the opening 20 minutes of their last 25 Premier League games.
There have been 39 goals scored in regulation time in the last 20 Finals. We can see that only 14 of those 39 goals have been scored in the 1st half of action with the bulk of scoring coming between the 56th and 75th minute. In fact there have been more goals scored in that 15 minute time frame, than have been scored in the entire first 45 minutes of the last 20 Finals, with 15 goals scored. That’s 38.4% of goals scored in the last 20 Finals, scoring in that 15 minutes.
WHICH TEAM WILL SCORE FIRST ?
Looking at the club's last 25 Premier League games, we see that Man City have come out of the blocks fast and have scored first 16 of 22 games where they have been goals scored. Meanwhile for Stoke, its a little bit each way, with the Potters holding a 13-11 advantage in first goals in 24 games played with goals scored.
It seems doubtful that Tevez. Manager Mancini expressed serious doubts yesterday about his captain's chances of squaring off against Stoke. So that throws things up in the air a little. But regardless, here are some angles I like.
There will be a goal – In their last 25 Premier League games each, only 4 have ended goalless after 90 minutes. And in the last 20 FA Cup Finals, just 2 have ended 0-0 in regulation.
Man City to score early - yes it defies the trends in Cup Finals, but Man City have scored early regularly this season while Stoke have given up just over 20% of their goals in the their last 25 Premier League games in the first 20 minutes. So I like Man City to get on the scoreboard within the first 20 minutes of action.
A score to occur between the 56 and 75 minute mark – Just over 38% of goals scored in the last 20 FA Cup Finals have been scored in this 15 minute span.
1 Goal in the first half- 18 of the last 20 Fa Cup Finals have been either 0-0 or 1-0 at the half. I like the look of a 1 goal first half at most odds being offered.
Final Score 2-1 Man City – I think we'll see Man City score early, then again at around the 65 minute mark. Stoke have scored after the 81st minute 10 times in their last 25 Premier League games and Man City have likewise given up late goals when holding a lead.
WHAT DO OUR TIPSTERS KNOW?
This season has been the best FA Cup season for Betting Expert tipsters in terms of Units won, with our tipsters collecting a profit of just over 91 units. That's an 8.5% return on 144 tips. In fact, our tipsters have been successful in FA Cup tournaments for the last 4 seasons, raking up just under 223 units of profit at a return of almost 11% on 291 tips.
And who amongst them has been the most successful tipsters this season when it comes to the FA Cup tournament? Well soccerfan, ironmajk and Joe has all but up at least 9 tips, and all returning a solid profit, and in Joe's case almost a 50% return on his 9 tips. Sportbetting79, MynkV and slobo have also had great returns from a limited number of tips. Be sure to check HERE closer to game-day to see where our tipsters think you should be putting your money.
So that's it, the The Scalpel – FA Cup Final 2011 edition. Hopefully, you can find an angle and make a few dollars while enjoying the game. Have a great FA Cup Final!
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Ok sorry guys, the images should be fine now. Thats what happens when your editing preview window is set to 125% instead of 100%. :)
Great Scalpel, Andrew! The new blog layout is kinda neat, although we still have some improvements to do. We'll make sure to have sharper images in the future. Thanks for the feedback guys! Thomas
Yeah sorry about the blurred tables guys. Fixing it now. Thanks for the feedback. And if there's any statistical and betting breakdowns of leagues or events you'd like to see, just shoot me an email.
Yes, pics are blurry for me also. Great scalpel non the less, expecting City to take the trophy but won't be placing any money on it.
is it just for me or are the pictures blurry for all? Great analysis, little more than I would usually wrote, but too bad you are not offering any betting tips, just stats and opinions... For the final score I would bet on 2-0, first goal early, around 20th minute, and second in second half from counter attack