The Scalpel - NBA Conference semi finals - Part 2
May 9th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in American Sports
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
by Andrew, email : andrew@bettingexpert.com
The NBA playoffs are in full swing. Today we will look into some of the key numbers in part 2 of our betting breakdown as Round 2 action continues, and the remaining 8 teams battle to move to the Conference Semi Finals.
Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers
Recent Meetings
Dallas pulled off a 2 point upset win in the opening game of this series. It was their first win in Los Angeles since October of 2009. Previous to Game 1, the Lakers had won 6 of the last 9 meetings between the teams. Dallas have covered the betting line in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Against the Line
Dallas have covered the line 52-37 in all games this season, holding an impressive 29-16 record against the line in games away from home.
Conversely, the Lakers are a poor 17-28 against the line when playing at home this season.
When underdogs of fewer than 5 points this season, Dallas have covered the line 14-6 and are 18-11 against the line when favoured by fewer than 6 points.
When matched up against opponents with a win/loss record above 50%, the Mavericks have covered the line 25-16, and in away games against teams above 50% Dallas have covered the line 24-9.
They are however a poor 11-17 against the line following a game in which they gave up more than 100 points and 6-10 when playing an away game following a loss. But in games following a win, they have covered the line 35-18.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are a dismal 16-23 when facing opponents with a win/loss record above 50% and an even more dismal 4-14 when playing at home against opponents above 50%.
They are additionally 11-19 at home following a win
Overs and Unders
Dallas has gone Over 27-18 in away games this season, and Over 7-1 in games when underdogs of at least 5 points.
Meanwhile the Lakers have gone Under 27-17 in away games.
In games played against teams with a win/loss record above 50% the Lakers have gone Under 28-15 and Under 35-18 in games where the O/U line was at least 195 points. They have also gone Under in 43 of their last 62 games when playing with a day of rest.
Conclusion
Play Dallas every chance you get against Los Angeles here. The public love the Lakers, and the empire is crumbling. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, but play the Mav's in Game 2 and don't get off, especially in games played in Los Angeles. The Lakers have been woeful at home against the line for a number of years as the public money continually inflates their lines.
As for Overs/Unders, look to play the Over in games played in Los Angeles but consider the Under for games in Dallas as L.A will look to slow the tempo. The line for Game 2 is currently 189, and was 188 for Game 1. Those numbers are the lowest O/U lines in the last 10 meetings between the teams going back to 2008.
Series Winner
Tough to make a call here. The Mav's taking Game 1 has got to give them the belief. They've moved into 2.33 and the Lakers need to respond. Look to see this series go well into May.
Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks
Recent Meetings
Atlanta claimed an upset victory in Game 1 of this series, defeating the Bulls in Chicago by 8 points. In continued Atlanta's form against the Bulls, dating back to December 2008, winning 7 of now 10 meetings during that span, covering the betting in as many games.
Against the Line
Atlanta have covered the 19-25 in home games this season, while the Bulls away from home have covered the line 26-17.
Overall, Chicago has impressed this season against the line, covering 52-36 in all games, particularly impressive against teams with a win/loss record above 50%, where their record against the line is 22-9. They are however 3-11 against the line when favourites by at least 10 points.
The Bulls are also 35-15 against the line against an opponent that is coming off a win and 16-6 following a game in which they lost.
They have also rebounded following games in which they gave up at least 100 points to their opposition, where they are 12-5 against the line.
The Bulls have also covered in 29 of their last 42 games when playing with a day of rest, and 27 of their last 37 following a game in which they failed to cover the line.
Meanwhile, Atlanta have covered in just 11 of 30 games following a game in which they scored at least 100 points and 8 of 21 in home games following a win.
Overs and Unders
Atlanta have gone Under 26-13 in games against teams with a win/loss record above 50% this season, while the Bulls have done similar above plus 50% teams, going Under 22-10.
Atlanta have also gone Under 29-14 games when coming up an opponent that is coming off a loss, and 25-16 when coming off a loss themselves.
The teams have combined to go Under 64-41 in games this season where the O/U line was at least 190 points, while Atlanta has gone Under 15-5 in games this season where the O/U line was 185 points or fewer.
However, the trend in recent meetings between the clubs is in favour of the Over, with the teams going Over 9 of their last 12 meetings and in 5 of their last 6 meetings played in Chicago.
Conclusion
The Bulls are 8.5 favourites for Game 2 and I would look for them to cover that comfortably. They have shown great ability to rebound from poor performances this season as well as coming up against teams in good form. Also Atlanta have been following games in which they scored over 100, so look for the Bulls to pick up on the defensive on the court as the series progresses.
As for Overs/Unders, the trend between the teams is for the Over. The line for Game 1 was 177 and the clubs easily eclipsed that. It has risen to 180 for Game 2. You want to consider the broader trends and look to play the Under, especially in Game 2 as the Bulls will be switched on defensively.
Series Winner
The Hawks took Game 1, which has seen the Bulls go out to 1.40 to move on to the Conference Finals. They should get back into gear and take the series in 5 games.
COMING UP Friday – The Top 5 Football Podcasts you need to be listening to.
NEXT WEEK – The Scalpel FA Cup Final Betting Breakdown. All the stats and numbers you'll need for the game.
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Great post, Andrew! Looking forward to the next scalpel on FA cup
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very interesting post andrew, i dont know much about the nba and its great to get some concise information like this, thanks look forward to the cup final scalpel next week.