What Are The Chances Of Another Goal?
Dec 18th, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Betting Theory, Football
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
What are the chances of another goal being scored in a match? Last week Andrew took a look the potential for further goals in matches where clubs held a 1-0 lead. Today he looks at the chances of further goals being scored in a match across a variety of scorelines.
Last week I took a look at goal expectations when clubs lead 1-0, in particular taking a look at goal expectations dependent upon whether the home club leads 1-0 or the away leads 1-0.
Today I'm going to continue with this analysis, looking at the expectations of another goal being scored in a match.
Again we will consider data from the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga for the past five seasons, from the beginning of the 2007/2008 season to our current season 2012/2013. We will be comparing the expectation of another goal being scored in a match when both home and away clubs have led 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0.
Recap - When Clubs Lead 1-0
In last week's analysis we observed a greater expectation of further goals being scored in a match when away clubs have led 1-0. The chart below shows the goal expectation for at least two goals to be scored in a match when both home clubs and away clubs lead 1-0 as time elapses.
As we can see, there is consistent and greater expectation of another goal being scored in a 1-0 match when the away club holds that lead, with this expectation becoming greater from the opening of the second half through to the 80th minute of a match.
So the question arises: Will we see a similar expectation for another goal to be scored in a match when the away club leads by other common scorelines?
When Clubs Lead 2-0
So let's pick up our analysis by considering the goal expectation in matches when both the home and away clubs have led by a score of 2-0. The chart below shows the expectation of a third goal being scored in such matches as time elapses.
Similar to our earlier analysis, we see that there is an expectation of further goals when the home club leads. In this case, up until the 35th minute, when the home club leads 2-0, there is a greater expectation of a third goal.
From that point onward, the expectation of a third goal in a 2-0 match is greater when the away club holds that lead. In fact the expectation has been greatest from the closing minutes of the opening half through the early minutes of the second half, between the 40th and 50th minutes.
When Clubs Lead 2-1
Now we will take a look at when both home and away clubs have led 2-1. The chart below shows us the expectation of a fourth goal in such matches as time elapses.
Here we can see a clear enhanced expectation of a further goal throughout the match when the away club leads 2-1. The expectation is greatest when the away club takes an early 2-1 lead in a match. From the 15th minute through to the 30th minute, the average expectation of a fourth goal in the match has been 99% when the away club has led, while when the home club led 2-1 through that same timespan the expectation of a fourth goal has been just over 88%.
When Clubs Lead 3-0
Let's close the analysis by looking at goal expectations when clubs hold a commanding 3-0 lead. The chart below shows expectations of a fourth goal when both home and away clubs have lead 3-0 in matches as time elapses.
Again we see a significantly greater expectation of a fourth goal in a match when the away club holds the lead, this time the scoreline of 3-0. From the 20th minute through to the end of the 1st half, the average expectation of a fourth goal when the away club led 3-0 has been almost 96%, while when the home club held such a lead through that same timespan, the average expectation has been just over 84%.
So what did we learn?
As we saw in our previous analysis, the likelihood of further goals is greater when the away club holds the lead. In each of our examples we have observed a greater expectation when the away club has led, through a range of common scorelines.
Although we have not taken into account pre-match goal total expectations and have treated each match as a contest between average home and away teams, we can see that in general there is a greater expectation for further goals in a match when the away club is holding a lead.
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Good article. This is good for those who bet live :)
A very relevant trend, backed up with significant stats. Great research Andrew. Thanks.
Having also written on this subject a few days ago, I can confirm that expectation of a goal which is dependent on the current score and other variables such as heavy rain will in fact increase when the away side score an early goal. This was noted by Dixon and Robinson 1998 and actually referred to the home team to explain why so many games end a draw. To understand the early goal effect it is necessary to work out goal expectation before the game. The general academic offering was T0-35 away and greater expectation of goals then poisson distribution )expectation, 35-85 back to normal and believe it or not >85 expectation of further goals to the away side. Certainly a very well presented blog. Much better then my original.
Another well researched and informative article. With in-running betting getting bigger and bigger, this really does provide some interesting angles for the punter.
You invest lot of time and efforts in to this article. Thank you Andrew.. Great one to read.
It is a great help for live bettors, the ones who bets on markets like "GOAL TO BE SCORED BETWEEN" or similar.
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Good article it's all about the trend but then again one must remember the previous stats of the team and the players they've got to score. Definitely useful when it comes to bet in plays.