What happens after a shock result in the Premier League?
Sep 14th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
email: andrew at bettingexpert.com
What happens after a shock result in the Premier League? Do the losers bounce back? Do the winners continue their form into the next week? Where has the betting value been the following week for the clubs involved in an unexpected result? Andrew searches through 11 seasons of betting data to find out.
Depending upon which side you're on, a shock result in any sport can be as thrilling as it can be devastating. We've all been there. We've backed the short-priced favourite that just doesn't show up on matchday and leaves us with a big dent in our betting balance.
And we've backed the club that nobody thinks has a chance, and ridden every tense second all the way to the end, to give you one of those betting stories that nobody will ever believe. And even if you aren't financially involved, an upset result can be one of those 'I remember where I was when..' moments.
But what happens the following week?
Do the losers in an upset bounce back the next week? Do the winners rest on their laurels? Are clubs involved in unexpected results worth betting on the week after?
So to answer these questions, I decided to dig into 11 seasons worth of Premier League numbers, hoping to find out where the betting value has been the following week for clubs involved in a shock result.
Clubs playing at home after a shock win
Let's begin by looking at how clubs who pulled off a highly unexpected victory perform the following week if playing at home. We will be looking at clubs that won matches where there odds to win were 6.00 or greater.
And as usual we will assess performance by betting on each possible outcome (Win, Draw & Loss) at 'even stakes'. In other words, we will bet £1 on each possible outcome and see which performed better in a range of situations.
Here we can see that since the 2000-2001 season, the Draw has been tremendous value for clubs playing at home following a shock win. From 69 matches in this situation, the Draw has returned a profit of over 53% at 'even stakes', while the Win has given a loss of 30%.
While these clubs have performed poorly when backed to win, that they have been such great value at the Draw, suggests that when playing at home, they don't completely rest of their triumph of the previous week.
Clubs playing away after a shock win
Now let's turn to see how clubs perform away from home the week after a shock victory.
Here the value has been with their opposition. If you had bet against clubs coming off an unexpected win playing away since 2000-2001, you would have achieved a profit of just under 7%, from a sample size of 43 matches.
Laying against these clubs to win would have also been quite generous, with a loss recorded of almost 36% for those who would have backed each of these away clubs blindly since 2000-2001.
All up, either at home or playing away, betting on clubs coming off a shock win would have seen you take a loss of around 32% from 112 matches, suggesting that you may want to lay against such clubs in this situation.
Clubs playing at home after a shock loss
Now let's turn the tables and look at how clubs coming off a loss to an opponent of odds 6.00 or more performed the last 11 seasons.
We can see that clubs in this situation have performed very well when playing at home following their shock defeat. Since 2000-2001, betting at 'even stakes, you would have made a handsome profit of almost 22% from a sample size of 47 matches, suggesting that such clubs bounce back quite well when given the opportunity to play at home.
Meanwhile, betting against them would have seen you in the hole for over 52% on your investment, giving what appears to be an attractive situation to lay against.
Clubs playing away after a shock loss
Let's finish our head-to-head analysis by looking at how clubs play away from home when coming off a shock loss the previous week.
While not as striking as some of our previous trends in this analysis, we see that the value in this situation is on the Draw. Had you back the Draw at 'even stakes' over the 65 matches that occurred in this situation since 2000-2001, you would have achieved a profit of 8%.
Overs & Unders following a shock win
Let's now turn our attention to match goal totals. Firstly we will look at how the Over/Under markets performed for clubs coming off an unexpected victory.
Both home and away, we see that matches involving these clubs were lower scoring than anticipated. At home, betting the Under would have given you an 'even stakes' profit of just over 19% while in away matches, betting the Under would have given you a return of just under 15%.
Since the value was with the Draw for home clubs coming off a shock win, we could have expected to see the value with the Under in home matches involving these clubs. But it's also interesting to see that the value is also with the Under in away matches for these clubs.
Overs & Unders following a shock loss
Finally, let's consider the Over/Under markets for matches involving clubs coming off a shock defeat.
We see that the value is with the Over for matches involving these clubs at home. This could be expected since we have already seen that the value is with the home club to win in this situation. Rebounding from an unexpected and embarrassing defeat, these clubs have not only earned 3 points on the Premiership table, but have put some goals on the board in doing so.
So what did we learn?
Let's conclude this analysis by listing some of the key trends identified. And a reminder to never follow trends blindly, no matter how attractive they may appear. But even having said that, historical trends are always something we can incorporate into our overall betting analysis for any given match.
- Consider betting the Draw for home clubs coming off a victory of odds 6.00 or greater.
- Consider laying against clubs coming off a victory of odds 6.00 or greater.
- Consider betting on home clubs to Win coming off a loss to an opponent of odds 6.00 or greater.
- Consider betting Under 2.5 goals in matches involving clubs coming off a victory of odds 6.00 or greater.
Click here for the BettingExpert 2012/2013 Football Stats Guide. Detailed stats for the 8 biggest leagues of Europe.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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I'll definately look into it Manchild. It was an intriguing stat you mentioned. I'd be interested to investigate it further in greater depth and see what the numbers say.
Very valuable points to consider when trying to look through the mist and the spray. As you say - not the solution, but a key stat of what has happened in the past. On a similar vein, I hope you find time to look into that bizarre Premiership lose-to-nil at home stat that I alluded to. Today it applied to Wolves, Blackburn and Bolton; but only Blackburn won at 4.6.
IMO this is a very dangerous method of betting, I do this weekly and their a number of factors to concider when betting on losing teams and it is almost impossible to factor them all into analysis of this type... You haven't mentioned the stage of the season, which is a very important aspect. My own record is an example of this, when I first joined towards the the end of the season I was absolutely flying, certainly not the case right now...
Yes Joachim, always potential for backfitting with any sort of past trend analysis like this. I guess it depends upon the sample size as well as how the data is cut up. So I try to keep the number of parameters limited and those parameters used fairly broad, in this case, just keeping it in terms of home and away teams coming off wins and losses. Adding too many specifically crafted parameters is where the danger of backfitting really becomes apparent. It's like those NBA or NFL trends you can see posted on other sites, things like 'Home teams are 15-1 against the spread when an underdog betwee 3 and 6 points coming off a loss between 10 and 20 points in October after giving up 300 or more yards'. Totally useless.
It's a very interesting read as always Andrew, but I would suggest that there's a major danger of backfitting in this instance. And I'd even say that for much larger sample sizes.
Yes, thats always the tricky part. When is a trend a trend and when is it just a good looking coincidence? This piece covers every season from 2000-2001 until the end of 2010-2011. In that time there were 112 upsets of this sort. Of those 112, the losers played at home the following week 47 times. So it's not exactly an overwhelming sample. Before this season is done, I'm planning on doing the same analysis across all the major leagues of Europe. Will be interesting to see if it's consistent.
Agree! May I ask how many games your stats are based on? It should reveal how much we can trust the trends...
Thanks Henrik. Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw the results. It's either they respond due to the humiliation of the defeat or the odds are a little more generous due to their disappointing performance the week before. Probably a little of both. Like you say, totally logical. Will be interesting to see if we get similar results this season.
Very interesting reading Andrew. One can keep on being impressed by your statistical approach. Great work! I especially noticed the point, which values teams playing at home after a shock defeat. It seems quite logical that a team wants to prove themselves with their home crowd. In contrast the market might put too much into their latest defeat...
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very good analysis, I love it... waiting to see other leagues in europe :)