What happens on opening weekend of the Premier League?
Aug 3rd, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Are more goals scored on the opening weekend of the Premier League season? Are upsets more likely to happen? Do home teams win more often than the usual? Andrew digs into 11 seasons of Premier League numbers to uncover some value trends we might want to take note of as season 2011/2012 approaches.
As the new Premier League campaign approaches, I thought it was due time to take a look at what has historically occurred on the opening weekend of competition. I was curious (as usual) and wondered, can we expect more goals than usual to be scored? What about winning percentages of home and away clubs? And most importantly, can we identify situations that have been more profitable on the opening weekend of play than they typically are?
All these questions came to mind. So I decided to dig into the database and run through the last 11 seasons and make the numbers dance.
This is what I found. Remember, all results are based on average betting odds standardised to equal of 1.92 'even money'. And like always, we will be considering situations by betting single units at 'even stakes' on all possible outcomes.
Winning Percentages
So let's start out with a simple analysis and compare winning percentages of home and away clubs on opening weekend, compared to the remainder of the season.
Over the last 11 opening weekends of the Premier League, we can see that clubs playing at home have won just under 51% of games played. This compares strongly to the remainder of the season, where for the last 11 seasons, home clubs have won just on 47% of matches.
This is an increase of almost 4% in home club form on opening weekend than we see the rest of the season. It also means that away clubs winning percentages on opening weekend are down over 3% when compared to the rest of the season.
Halftime Winning Percentages
We will now look at winning percentages for the first half of play.
We see once again, a noteworthy increase in home club winning probability for the first half of each match on opening weekend. For the remainder of the season the last 11 years, home clubs have won just on 36% of first halves. That number improves to just under 41% on opening weekend.
We also see away club chances drop slightly, while probability of a drawn first half drops significantly from almost 42% the remainder of the season, to just over 37% on opening weekend.
Home favourites with odds under 2.00
Let's now look at a few opening weekend value betting trends that we can identify over the last 11 seasons. Firstly we will look at home clubs playing as favourites of less than 2.00
We can actually see that over the remainder of the season, clubs in this situation have been slightly profitable the last 11 seasons. But on opening day, home favourites of odds less than 2.00 have been very impressive in terms of value.
Over that span, these clubs have generated a profitable return of almost 17%. Well worth taking note of. As is the potential to lay against both a drawn match and away clubs opposing this situation.
Clubs to consider to back in this situation this season
- LIVERPOOL vs Sunderland.
- TOTTENHAM vs Everton
- MANCHESTER CITY vs Swansea
When the odds for a Draw are under 3.60
Let's now look at an interesting value trend. What happens on opening day in matches where the odds for a draw are less than 3.60?
Well as we can see, in this situation, the draw has been very solid value, returning an 'even stakes' profitable return of almost 12% on the opening weekend of the season. And we can also see that laying against the away club also has great potential.
Games to consider the Draw in this situation this season
- FULHAM vs ASTON VILLA
- BLACKBURN vs WOLVERHAMPTON
- WIGAN vs NORWICH
- TOTTENHAM vs EVERTON
- QPR vs BOLTON
- NEWCASTLE vs ARSENAL
Total Goals
Now let's turn our attention to goal totals on opening weekend. And firstly let's look at fulltime goal stats and averages.
We can see that the average total number of goals per match the last 11 seasons on opening weekend has been 2.78, a genuine increase on the remainder of the season, which has seen the average number of goals drop to 2.61 per match.
We can also see that the likelihood of a match finishing over 2.5 goals on opening weekend is significantly higher than it is the remainder of the season. On opening weekend the chances of clubs combining for 3 or more goals is just over 55%, while the rest of the season it dips to just over 48%.
We can also see that the chances of a match collecting 4 or more goals improves from almost 27% to almost 34% on opening weekend. Something to keep in mind.
Halftime Total Goals
Let's have a quick look at total goal numbers for the first half of play on opening weekend compared to the remainder of the season.
We can see a genuine improvement in the chances of there being at least 1 or 2 goals scored in the opening half on the first weekend of Premier League play. The probability of there being at least 1 goal rises from 69% to over 76% on opening weekend, while the chances of there being at least 2 goals in the first half improves from just under 32% to a solid 40% on opening weekend the last 11 seasons.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Straight Up
Let's first just have a look at how you would have gone had you bet 'even stakes' on both the Over and Under 2.5 goal options on the opening weekend compared to the rest of the season.
We can see here that simply betting on Over 2.5 goals on opening weekend the last 11 seasons, has been quite profitable, generating a profit of just of 11% in all matches.
Over when Drawn Match odds less than 3.50
Now let's look at some value trends in the Over/Under markets the last 11 seasons on opening weekend.
Firstly, we can see that when the odds of a match being drawn on opening weekend are less than 3.50, the Over has returned quite a handsome profit at 'even stakes' of just under 24%. Definately something to keep in mind as we approach the start of the new season.
Games to consider the Over in this situation this season
- FULHAM vs ASTON VILLA
- BLACKBURN vs WOLVERHAMPTON
- TOTTENHAM vs EVERTON
- WIGAN vs NORWICH
- NEWCASTLE vs ARSENAL
- QPR vs BOLTON
Under when Away club odds are 2.80 or less
Now, lastly, let's have a look at the Over/Under return when the away club goes into a match on opening weekend with odds of 2.80 or less.
Here we can see that this situation has been slightly profitable, taking the Under 2.5 goals for the entire season. But on opening weekend the last 11 seasons, we can see that it has generated a profitable return of almost 10%.
Games to consider the Under in this situation this season
- NEWCASTLE vs ARSENAL
- STOKE vs CHELSEA
- WEST BROM vs MANCHESTER UNITED
So what did we learn?
In conclusion, let's list some key points to keep in mind as we approach opening weekend of the the Premier League season 2011/2012.
- Home clubs record a higher winning percentage, almost 51%
- Home clubs record a higher halftime winning percentage, almost 41%
- Strongly consider home clubs at odds of less than 2.00
- Consider the draw when drawn match odds are less than 3.60
- Strongly Consider the Over 2.5 goals when Drawn match odds are less than 3.50
- Consider the Under 2.5 goals when Away club odds are less than 2.80
Click here for the BettingExpert 2012/2013 Football Stats Guide. Detailed stats for the 8 biggest leagues of Europe.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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What is home field advantage really worth in major European football leagues?
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Interesting reading, Andrew. A large part of performance is in the head, and the head is always different on season match day 1. How that manifests itself seems to have a difference for sure. It supports my only two bets. Liverpool ht/ft and Blackburn/Wolves draw. Good luck.
Cheers Andrew it gets better with every post. Very useful info for the kick off the premier league. Thanks mate......
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Ok I thought I'd post the results for these trends for Week 1 2011/2012. Home favourites Under 2.00 Liverpool - Draw - Result 0 Man City - Win - Result 1.27 Tottenham DNP Draw when Under 3.60 Fulham-AstonVilla - Draw - Result 3.30 Blackburn-Wolves - No Draw - Result 0 Wigan-Norwich - Draw - Result 3.32 QPR - Bolton - No Draw - Result 0 Newcastle-Arsenal - Draw - Result 3.36 Tottenham-Everton DNP Over 2.5 when Draw odds below 3.50 Fulham-AstonVilla - Under - Result 0 Blackburn-Wolves - Over - Result 2.01 Wigan-Norwich - Under - Result 0 Newcastle-Arsenal - Under - Result 0 * QPR - Bolton - Over - Result 2.22 Totten-Everton DNP Under 2.5 when Away odds below 2.80 Newcastle-Arsenal - Under - Result 2.03 * Stoke-Chelsea - Under - Result 1.81 West Brom-Man Utd - Over - Result 0 * The Newcastle-Arsenal Over/Under cancel each other out. Total Units bet: 13 Return: 17.29 Profit: 4.29 % Return: 33% Not bad results at all.