How to bet on BettingExpert's Hot Horses
By Stephen, www.bettingexpert.com | Published (Edited )
Twitter: @Stephenh61
Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com
Where can you find out where the genuine smart money is going pre-race? Which horses are receiving the serious heat? This month at BettingExpert we introduce our new Hot Horses feature as part of our developing BE Racing section. Today our racing analyst and editor Stephen tells us how we can make use of this inside knowledge.
BettingExpert is beginning to expand the horse racing section and has introduced a daily Hot Horses feature that should be a huge aid to the more astute punter, whether a conventional bettor or a trader on the exchanges.
These horses will be constantly updated pre-racing and provide a valuable insight into where the warm money is going, both with the traditional layers and on betfair/betdaq.
With my connections from previous senior trading roles in the betting industry, I have a number of contacts within some of the biggest bookmakers in the world. They try constantly to limit and factor down their winning customers, and manage their positions accordingly. By receiving this information, Bettingexpert readers can put themselves one step ahead in the ongoing battle of wits against the old enemy.
There are a number of ways to utilise the hot horses and here are a few suggestions.
1 - CONVENTIONAL BETTING : A Long term view
Many punters enjoy the thrill of watching their bet and following the sport, rather than purely a financial association. With "hot horses" it is possible to turn this pleasure into a profitable pastime. Betfair prices are now an extremely accurate guide to the outcome of races, and by beating this "perfect" price on a regular basis, it is very probable that the punter will emerge in profit over a long period of time.
For example, if we assume those horses that return with a betfair sp of 6-4, (the average price matched for the largest volume of cash), will win around 40 per cent of their races, then any punter securing an early price of 7-4, (a 35 per cent chance), will secure a decent profit on turnover over time.
He can have a long term view that he has secured a price better than the actual chance a horse has, and ride out runs of misfortune and losers that can affect the mindset of many (losing) punters.
The benefit of this approach is that he removes the eroding effect of commision charged by the exchanges on his lay bets he would encounter from trading out of his win bets. Hot horses can be a profitable medium in themselves if able to secure an early price before the tidal wave of follow up support arrives.
2 - TRADING : Snowballing to regular profits
More and more the snowball effect of money is clearly seen with any weight of cash for the "right" horses meeting less and less resistance in pre-race exchanges. This has increased massively in recent years with the "mug" layers dying out and those left surviving forced into accepting shorter and shorter prices as they try and get on. It is arguably a point in time where the value will return to the layers such is way that "demand" outstrips "supply" at the moment.
For our purposes, the hot horses can enable the punter to get into a "no lose" position. For example, he searches around and finds that "hot horse" Ohio Gold is 7-4 with two online firms, he places 400 Euros with both, effectively securing himself a 1400-800 about the selection. Confident in his knowledge of the snowball effect as racetime nears, he puts into lay a 1200-800 on the exchanges.
Provided the price continues to fall as it usually will, he can secure himself the pleasant position of either winning 200 Euros if Ohio Gold obliges or being level if the horse loses.
This is a simplistic view of trading and obviously it is not as easy as this sounds. However by latching onto these warm industry horses in the morning it is very often possible to have an excellent position later on. Incidentally the more astute bettor may decide the price is now ridiculously "short" and end up winning cash by getting the horse beaten and only being level if it wins.
The trader must see his betting in much the same way a stock market trader views any transaction, where the result of the event is effectively removed from the equation. By buying at 10p a share that is now worth 14p, he can ensure he wins regardless of the companies results posted in six months time. He is not interested in the firm/race itself but merely being ahead of the game in terms of price.
3 - BLUFFING : Avoiding the false gambles
Some very successful horse players have often created false morning moves, often when they wish to bet another horse in the race later on at enhanced prices. This can be achieved with very little cash on the exchanges in the morning and lead to all the firms slashing the price across the board. An impression is deliberately created that a huge gamble is happening and "sheep" punters often try to join in, accepting shorter and shorter prices to jump on board.
In the trading office where I worked, we referred to these false dawns as "monday morning" gambles as they often occured on quiet run of the mill mornings when the racing is typically low grade. Later on when "real" cash is traded near the off time, these false moves are often shopped, as the price rapidly drifts out wildly as it becomes apparent that the "demand" actually is mythical.
Pro-gambler Pat Veitch has detailed in his superb autobiography "Enemy Number 0ne" how he has often used these tactics to throw layers off the scent. Lobbing away a few hundred pounds to ensure a price collapses on an unfancied runner before unleashing the real cash at inflated prices later on.
With our hot horses section, Bettingexpert followers can be confident that the warm money has genuinely been placed and that downward momentum on the price is genuine. With traders in particular, who are determined to cut their position and ensure a profit regardless of outcome, this is a vital tool in the ongoing battle with the layers.
Follow BettingExpert's Hot Horses each and every day. How hot are Hot Horses? The last 9 hot horses have been winners. That's how hot.
And you can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61
Enter our £5,000 Horse Racing Tipping Competition. It's on now sponsored by Betfred.
If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:
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10 Things you need to be successful at betting on sports
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