Wimbledon 2012 Mens Betting Analysis Preview

Jun 22nd, 2012 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Tennis

bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

With Wimbledon beginning next week, today on the blog Andrew delivers his mens tournament betting analysis, taking a look at where the value has been and where it might be as we head into the 2012 edition.

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Next week sees the beginning of the third Grand Slam of the year, Wimbledon. So this weekend we will be taking a look at some numbers from the last 5 years for both the mens and the womens tournaments. Today we will begin with the mens, looking at betting performance of players throughout the tournament as well as some key numbers in terms of Over/Under Games and Set betting.

The Opening Round

So let's begin by taking a look at how the first round of Wimbledon has played out of the last 5 tournaments. The chart below shows the profitability of both favourites and underdogs in various odds ranges. The profitability is based upon even stakes betting, meaning the return we would have seen had we bet the same amount on each outcome, favourite or underdog.

Favourites	Matches	Wins	Losses	Win Return	Loss Return
1.01 - 1.10	67	64	3	0.00 (0.0%)	-41.3 (-61.6%)
1.11 - 1.20	66	57	9	-0.6 (-0.9%)	-16.5 (-25.0%)
1.21 - 1.35	52	40	12	-1.1 (-2.1%)	-6.3 (-12.1%)
1.36 - 1.50	50	42	8	+9.5 (+19.0%)	-26.2 (-52.4%)
1.51 - 1.75	65	43	22	+4.1 (6.3%)	-13.8 (-21.2%)
1.76 - 1.91	20	12	8	+1.9 (+9.5%)	-3.9 (-19.5%)

The first thing we can see is the horrific performance of underdogs in the opening round of Wimbledon over the last 5 tournaments. Backing all underdogs over this span would have seen you down -108 units for a loss of -33.8%. Backing all favourites on the other hand would have seen you collect a nice profit of 13.8 units, a return of +4.3%.

The Middle Rounds

Now let's turn to look at rounds 2 and 3 of the mens tournament over the last 5 years.

Favourites	Matches	Wins	Losses	Win Return	Loss Return
1.01 - 1.10	58	57	1	+1.7 (2.9%)	-48.3 (-83.3%)
1.11 - 1.20	42	37	5	+0.5 (+1.2%)	-14.4 (-34.3%)
1.21 - 1.35	51	38	13	-2.5 (-4.9%)	-0.8 (-1.6%)
1.36 - 1.50	21	16	5	+1.4 (+6.7%)	-8.0 (-38.1%)
1.51 - 1.75	50	32	18	+1.7 (+3.4%)	-6.8 (-13.6%)
1.76 - 1.91	18	11	7	+2.2 (+12.2%)	-3.9 (-21.7%)

Once again we see the poor performance of underdogs in the mens tournament. Backing underdogs playing particularly short-priced favourites between odds of 1.01 and 1.20 through the middle grounds of the last 5 mens Wimbledon tournaments would have seen you suffer a loss of -62.7. Meanwhile backing all favourites would have delivered a profit of +5 units at even stakes, a return of +2.1%.

4th Round Onwards

So let's conclude this part of the analysis by look at results in the 4th round, QuarterFinals, SemiFinals and Finals over the last 5 mens Wimbledon tournaments.

Favourites	Matches	Wins	Losses	Win Return	Loss Return
1.01 - 1.10	20	19	1	0.0 (0.0%)	-8.9 (-44.5%)
1.11 - 1.20	12	10	2	-0.5 (-4.2%)	-1.9 (-15.8%)
1.21 - 1.35	14	11	3	+0.1 (+0.7%)	-2.2 (-15.7%)
1.36 - 1.50	10	6	4	-1.4 (-14.0%)	+2.3 (+23.0%)
1.51 - 1.75	15	11	4	+2.6 (+17.3%)	-7.9 (-52.7%)
1.76 - 1.91	4	1	3	-2.2 (-55.0%)	+2.1 (+52.5%)

We see mixed results during the concluding stages of the last 5 mens Wimbledon tournaments. But once again we do see woeful performances by rank outsiders coming up against short-priced favourites. Backing against such favourites in the range of 1.01 to 1.20 the last 5 years from the 4th round onwards to the Final would have seen you drop -10.8 units, suffering a return of -33.8% with just 3 wins from 32 matches.

Total Games Over/Unders

Now let's take a look at the 50-50 split of the number of games played when favourites of particular odds ranges win and when they lose.

Favourites	Games When Winning	Games When Losing
1.01 - 1.10	31	44
1.11 - 1.20	34	39
1.21 - 1.35	36	43
1.36 - 1.50	38	40
1.51 - 1.75	38	39
1.76 - 1.91	36	41

The chart above shows the number of games that was the mid-point for all of the matches when favourites of a particular odds range won and when they lost. So for example, when favourites between 1.01 and 1.10 won, 50% of matches ended with a total number of games above 31 and 50% ended with a total number of games played below 31.

We can see that as favourites of a lesser and lesser conviction won, the numbers of expected games became greater and greater, although seeing it dip back to 36 games when favourites between 1.76 and 1.91 were victorious. When favourites were unsuccessful, we see that the number of expected games was at least 39 with it climbing to 43 when underdogs against favourites between 1.21 and 1.35 won and 44 when rank outsiders defeated favourites between the tight odds of 1.01 and 1.10.

Total Number Of Sets Played

Now let's turn to take a look at the number of sets played we can expect in matches played when favourites both win and lose.

Favourites Winning	3 Sets	4 Sets	5 Sets
1.01 - 1.10	67.7%	27.8%	4.5%
1.11 - 1.20	52.5%	28.7%	18.8%
1.21 - 1.35	47.0%	27.7%	25.3%
1.36 - 1.50	49.2%	25.2%	25.2%
1.51 - 1.75	41.0%	39.8%	19.2%
1.76 - 1.91	47.8%	30.4%	21.8%

The chart above shows the percentage of matches that ended with a particular number of sets played when favourites of a particular range were victorious of the last 5 mens Wimbledon tournaments. As would be expected, the number of matches extending beyond 3 sets increases once we get beyond short-priced favourites in the 1.01 to 1.20 range.

The chart below shows the percentage of matches that ended with a particular number of sets played when favourites of a particular range lost to their less fancied opponents.

Favourites Losing	3 Sets	4 Sets	5 Sets
1.01 - 1.10	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%
1.11 - 1.20	41.2%	29.4%	29.4%
1.21 - 1.35	17.4%	43.5%	39.1%
1.36 - 1.50	41.2%	29.4%	29.4%
1.51 - 1.75	34.2%	43.9%	21.9%
1.76 - 1.91	27.8%	33.3%	38.9%

As we would expect, when underdogs topple firm favourites in the range of 1.01 to 1.35, the occurrence of that match extending to 5 sets is greater, with just 26.1% of upsets in this range being completed within just 3 sets.

Class vs Class

So let's conclude this Wimbledon number and chart fest by looking at the performance of players in different classes have performed when up against players outside of their class. I have categorised players into 5 classes based on their current world rankings at the time the tournament was played in the following way:

Class A : Players ranked between 1 and 5.

Class B : Players ranked between 6 and 15.

Class C : Players ranked between 16 and 30.

Class D : Players ranked between 31 and 60.

Class E : Players ranked between 61 and 100.

Class F : Players ranked 101+

Following these classifications, the chart below shows the winning percentages when players from particular classes have played one another over the last 5 Wimbledon mens tournaments.

	Class A	Class B	Class C	Class D	Class E	Class F
Class A		75.0%	89.5%	90.6%	93.3%	85.7%
Class B	25.0%		58.3%	70.0%	78.0%	90.0%
Class C	10.5%	41.7%		58.3%	75.6%	81.6%
Class D	9.4%	30.0%	41.7%		54.5%	77.4%
Class E	6.7%	22.0%	22.4%	45.5%		62.9%
Class F	13.3%	10.0%	18.4%	22.6%	37.1%

As we can see, there are distinct trends in the winning rates of players of higher classes playing against players of a lower class. This chart can be used as a loose guide for determining the winning prospects of matchups through the 2012 tournament.

I will also be posting a Grand Slam Class vs Class chart before Wimbledon begins that will chart the cummulative winning rates for both the mens and womens across the last 5 tournaments for each of the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open.

So that's about it guys. Enjoy your Wimbledon betting this year. Go forward and profit.

Just in time for Wimbledon, today we announce the launch of our new Tennis Betting Tips Competition. A total of £5,000 up for grabs including a 1st prize of £2,000 thanks to our competition sponsors 10bet.