Group B – To qualify and winner odds

By David, bettingexpert.com | Edited 17:22 30.05.2012

Rightly labeled the group of death, all four teams would have been serious contenders for qualification had they been drawn in any other group. Three of them, in fact, make it into Fifa’s top five according to current coefficients. However, chances for each seem to be in line with odds complied by the bookies for Group B.

Market	Bookmaker	Denmark	Germany	Holland	Portugal
To qualify		6.20	1.27	1.59	2.36
		5.00	1.25	1.53	2.25
		5.00	1.28	1.44	2.20
Group winner		18.00	2.28	2.94	5.70
		17.00	2.10	2.80	5.00
		15.00	2.20	2.75	4.50
Finish bottom		1.67	12.50	8.80	4.30
		1.61	12.00	7.50	3.75
		1.44	13.00	11.00	3.60

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Euro 2012 Denmark Odds

To qualify

The potential surprise in this group but realistically one cannot conclude they are underestimated amongst the likes of Germany and Holland. Both neighbours of theirs are apparently better equipped. Tactically they should be able to read their opponents well but in terms of quality they are lacking in defence and attack when compared to the two favourites for qualification. Nonetheless, odds of 6.00 for them to go through are too much.

To win group

This would surely be a long shot. I would not say they are the least likely to do so, as bookmakers seem to suggest, so odds of 21.00 are again a huge price. However, it would seem too much to ask of the Danes in such a difficult group.

Euro 2012 Germany Odds

To qualify

The other group members make it such that odds for Germany to qualify are not as short as those on Spain, the other major favourites for the final triumph. That makes the 1.28 worth backing. Odds would seem objectively low but taken in context I think they look quite good.

To win group

I would be less prone to go onto this market however. As Group B winners Germany are quoted at 2.20, which is a good price but you really cannot be sure how the expected fight with Holland for leadership might turn out. Their final match with Denmark is also more complicated than that of Holland against Portugal in my opinion so that may further hinder their top spot ambitions. Which after all is not that important given they will still face quite some weak opposition from Group A anyway.

Euro 2012 Holland Odds

To qualify

Widely tipped as one of the two teams that will go through. They are the team that ranks fourth in Fifa’s rankings with Portugal right behind them and Germany in second place. Only some internal misunderstanding can keep them from going through. They have been in the last World Cup’s final but still the odds for them to qualify, 1.50, are not as attractive as the shorter odds on a more reliable German team.

To win group

Again, odds of 3.00 are still not high enough when considering they should be fighting for the number one place with old rivals Germany. You cannot really pinpoint how Holland will turn up. They might cruise through or else struggle and falter. Better not take any short odds on them.

Euro 2012 Portugal Odds

To qualify

Third likeliest to make it in this market according to bookmakers worldwide but from what we have seen of Portugal in all of the past years they are not a team that manages to live up to its potential. Maybe it is a tactical fault of theirs or the players just don’t manage to amalgamate as well. The truth is that in the end they cannot be trusted to perform and 2.40 is definitely not enough to whet my appetite.

To win group

Even goals have been a problem for them to come by. Not only would I lay Portugal in this market but I would gladly go for a 3.80 on them to finish bottom of Group B.

Euro 2012 Group B Value Bets

Market	Bookmaker	Denmark	Germany	Holland	Portugal
To qualify		6.20	1.27	1.59	2.36
		5.00	1.25	1.53	2.25
		5.00	1.28	1.44	2.20
Group winner		18.00	2.28	2.94	5.70
		17.00	2.10	2.80	5.00
		15.00	2.20	2.75	4.50
Finish bottom		1.67	12.50	8.80	4.30
		1.61	12.00	7.50	3.75
		1.44	13.00	11.00	3.60

1. Back Denmark to qualify – Odds of 6.00

Potential group surprise and at such high odds they deserve being backed.

2. Back Germany to qualify – Odds of 1.28

Might look like a small price but Germany are seriously looking like a sure thing on this market.

3. Back Portugal to finish bottom – Odds of 3.80

Despite Ronaldo and Nani the past suggests they do struggle to live up to expectations. They could easily be intimated by their tough group.

4. Straight forecast: 1st Holland, 2^nd Germany – Odds of 5.00

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on reading this analysis i could say that either you are mad or drunk, how can you lay Portugal when they will be having the best player of the continent in their squad in great shape- CR7. They have Coentrao, Pepe, CR7 from Real Madrid, Nani from Man Utd, and several other important players like Rolando, Meireles, Moutinho, Postiga- they all have the winning mentality and this could be their great occasion. For me Portugal could go right into the final. But to say "Not only would I lay Portugal in this market but I would gladly go for a 3.80 on them to finish bottom of Group B." is simply nonsense. PS No offense, it's just an opinion.