Group D – To qualify and winner odds

By David, bettingexpert.com | Edited 17:17 30.05.2012

Despite Ibrahimovic and Ukraine being co-hosts of the tournament it is the traditional super powers England and France which are tipped to ease past the obstacles and make it to the quarter-finals. Both have had their troubles in recent months though. Will these affect their chances and provide us with some good chances for profit in this group?

Market	Bookmaker	England	France	Sweden	Ukraine
To qualify		1.60	1.50	3.05	2.50
		1.50	1.53	2.75	2.37
		1.50	1.50	3.00	2.25
Group winner		2.86	2.80	7.40	6.00
		2.62	2.62	6.50	6.00
		2.62	2.62	7.00	5.00
Finish bottom		6.00	6.80	2.36	3.15
		6.00	5.50	2.25	3.20
		7.00	5.00	2.25	3.00

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Euro 2012 England Odds

To qualify

This is a team I would tend to trust to at least go through the group phase. They have had the manager issue come in their way but partially so in my view. The appointment of Hodgson has been a good choice. He will be able to bring the necessary tactical knowledge, and most of all, the right atmosphere, for the team to impose itself even when things look tough. At least in a group which does not really offer much. 1.55 is a very good price for what might look like a banker.

To win group

This is a tricky market as separating between England and France is not very easy at this point. They have both had their boat rocked along the way and are in a rebuilding phase. Odds of 2.80 do not look good enough.

Euro 2012 Sweden Odds

To qualify

Not a very predictable team Sweden. Their defence is not very encouraging but going forward they can be quite good. There are some talented players they can rely on and then there is obviously Ibrahimovic there too. They are still considered inferior to Ukraine by the bookmakers but I would consider that a misjudgment. Odds for them to qualify are 3.00, which is quite high. I still cannot see past a resurrection of both France and England though so that’s why I would be hesitant in backing the Swedish push in Euro 2012.

To win group

Their unpredictability may push them this far with neither England nor France enjoying a high enough international profile to be rightful absolute leaders in this group. Max odds for them to win the group are set at 7.75.

Euro 2012 France Odds

To qualify

Two disasters in the last two international tournaments. Blanc is supposed t be the problem solver though and he does share a similar position as Hodgson within the national team setup. He has had more time to prepare the team and I would expect him to get them through. For 1.53 they might be worth a shot but Sweden is a ticking time bomb in this group and I would more likely see France pay the price rather than England if Ibrahimovic and co. make it through.

To win group

As mentioned above there is no clear demarcation line you can draw to separate Les Bleus from the English. In fact, bookmakers give basically the same price as for England on this market – 2.80.

Euro 2012 Ukraine Odds

To qualify

We usually expect hosts to go through the group stage but in recent tournaments, with responsibility for hosting having gone to nations with less football tradition, it has become difficult for them to defeat odds. All other three teams look much more solid so I wonder what kind of appeal would odds of 2.50 have in this scenario.

To win group

It will already be an uphill struggle trying to get a point. In fact, I will go for what look like moderately good odds on Ukraine to finish bottom of the group. 3.20.

Euro 2012 Group D Value Bets

Market	Bookmaker	England	France	Sweden	Ukraine
To qualify		1.60	1.50	3.05	2.50
		1.50	1.53	2.75	2.37
		1.50	1.50	3.00	2.25
Group winner		2.86	2.80	7.40	6.00
		2.62	2.62	6.50	6.00
		2.62	2.62	7.00	5.00
Finish bottom		6.00	6.80	2.36	3.15
		6.00	5.50	2.25	3.20
		7.00	5.00	2.25	3.00

1. Back England to qualify – Odds of 1.55

Hodgson’s reassuring manner inspires a lot of confidence in this team and subsequently these odds. They may not be up for the challenge posed by certain teams in this tournament but neither of those threats hover in this group.

2. Back Ukraine to finish bottom – Odds of 3.20

Unfortunately they have had very little coming out of their youth system. Most players play on home soil having failed to generate the appeal necessary for top clubs to notice them. There are no more Andriy Shevchenkos here, apart from the original who is also struggling to be fit.

3. Dual forecast: England and France to qualify – Odds of 2.80

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