Winning on horseracing: A matter of statistics By Jannis, Expert Tipster at BettingExpert
Horse tipster, Jannis has developed his own horseracing betting system based upon his 25 years experience. In this article Jannis reveals some of the most important factors in horseracing and gives you beginner tips of how to become a more successful horseracing tipster.
There are many factors to decide the outcome of a horserace and all factors have different importance. The below factors give you an overview of what to take into consideration, before betting on a horse.
Unknown factors
First of all we have the unknown factors:
- The form of the horse on the day of the race
- The luck during the race
The form of a horse varies on the racing day. All sportsmen know the importance of the form on the day, so just like Ronaldinho can have an off-day, so can Seabiscuit. But in the long run this unknown factor is eliminated and only dependent on the quality of the trainer (see known factors – Trainer).
We can't foresee the factor of luck during the race, so we can only trust that the Jockey will do his best (see known factors – Jockey)
Known factors
The known factors to influence the outcome are:
Tracks: There are many with different characteristics. Some tracks are with right or left handed turns, others with more or less uphill or downhill. There are tracks with grass (turf) and others with sand or unreal ground (all weather). Some horses prefer one track more than another and their performance varies thereby. So we have to know, on what tracks the horse performs the best and this is calculated from the statistics of the horse.
Ground: The ground is a very crucial factor, because the horse might perform best on a soft ground (after rain), very soft (heavy), dry (good) or very dry (firm). Every horse has a ground preference and this is also calculated from the statistics of the horse. Therefore the weather on the day is important in regards of the conditions of the ground. So if you decide to be a horseracing tipster, it couldn’t harm, also being a halftime weather forecaster.
Distance: Some horses like short distances (sprinters) and others like long distances (stayers), which are another factor calculated upon statistics. This is also a genetic heredity, so the characteristics of the father and mother horse are important.
The distances are mentioned as furllons (f) and one furllon is 200m. The shortest distance is 5f (1000m).
Box numbers: If the racecourse is small, the tracks will have wide turns. In this way a horse on the far wing have to run longer than the others and therefore the position (box number) of where the horse will start matters.
Class: Professional racing horses start running, when they are two years old. According to how many times they have won and what kind of blood they have (father/mother), they are placed into classes. Class 1 is the best and class 7 is the worst. Many low class races are for buying/selling horses and sometimes a good horse is given a handicap by adding extra weight on its bag.
Weight: The weight of a horse is depending on performance and some times horses are under weighted or over weighted.
Jockeys: Just like horses have a track preference, so does the jockeys. Some jockeys like short distance over long distances. The winning percentage of a jockey is the important factor and should be taken into consideration when staking.
Trainer: Some trainers have the reputation of having a horse ready for the race and this can simply be calculated upon their winning percentage. There are some combinations of trainer/jockey, which have a high winning percentage and these are interesting to keep an eye on.
Horseracing betting
There are two kinds of odds you can play by the bookies:
- EP (Early Prices): Is offered before the race
- SP (Starting Prices): Is offered when the race has started (live betting)
The most popular bets are (WIN) and Each Way (EW). WIN is when you pick a horse to win the race and on EW you are betting on the horse to win or get a top placement. The places and the odds for the EW bets for all normal races are:
2-4 Horses
Only win
5-7 Horses
Top 2 places for 1/4 Odds
8 + Horses
Top 3 places for 1/5 Odds
Example: You stake €20 on a horse to win EW with odds 5.50 in a race with the total of 8 horses.
The horse gets a 1st place: You will be paid half of the stake with the full odds (€10 x 5.50 = €55) plus the other half of the stake with a 1/5 of the odds (€10 x (1 + ((5.50-1)/5)) = €19) due to the top placement. The total payout is €55 + €19 = €74.
If the horse got a 2nd or 3rd place you would get paid half the stake with a 1/5 odds: €10 x (1 + ((5.50-1)/5)) = €19.
If it is a handicap race (some horses are with extra weight), it is harder to tell the outcome and therefore payouts are a bit different:
2-4 Horses
Only win
5-7 Horses
Top 2 for 1/4 Odds
8-11 Horses
Top 3 for 1/5 Odds
12-15 Horses
Top 3 for 1/4 Odds
16 + Horses
Top 4 for 1/4 Odds
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Some bookmakers also offer Straight Forecast, where the first and the second horse have to be in the correct order. A Straight Tricast is where the first, second and third horse have to be in the correct order.
My horseracing betting advice
You should play the simplest bets (WIN and EW) and avoid many combinations. You must remember that the bookmakers make a bigger cut (lower payout percentage for you) on high odds, because they have to insure themselves against really big wins. Therefore I can not recommend you to bet on Straight Forecast or Tricast.
When finding your pick the most important factor is the winning percentage of the trainer and jockey. Since the ground and distance factors also are important, it is always preferable to bet on a horse, which is specialised in a specific ground and distance.
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There are many factors to decide the outcome of a horserace and all factors have different importance. The below factors give you an overview of what to take into consideration, before betting on a horse.
Distance: Some horses like short distances (sprinters) and others like long distances (stayers), which are another factor calculated upon statistics. This is also a genetic heredity, so the characteristics of the father and mother horse are important.
The most popular bets are (WIN) and Each Way (EW). WIN is when you pick a horse to win the race and on EW you are betting on the horse to win or get a top placement. The places and the odds for the EW bets for all normal races are:
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