The Fugue fancied to shine in Group 1 Nassau

By Stephen, bettingexpert.com | Published 00:01 04.08.2012

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John Gosden has a very strong hand in a quality renewal of the Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes and his classy 3-y-o The Fugue is expected to come out on top.

The Dansili filly built on the promise of her Guineas fourth when landing the valuable Musidora Stakes at York ten days later. She was then very unlucky when third in the Epsom Oaks (dropped out well out of her ground before finishing strongly despite wandering on the camber), before possibly finding the Ribblesdale coming too soon next time out. Her regular rider William Buick has deserted her but nobody rides Goodwood better than super-sub Richard Hughes, and he is sure to get this high-class filly into a nice rhythm under a typically patient ride from rear.

Main danger for the £185,000 Group 1 prize-money comes from stablemate Izzi Top. The Pivotal filly was third in the 2011 Oaks and has since won four Group races on the bounce, including a four runner Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last month. She is clearly thriving and warrants plenty of respect, with a career record of five wins from just nine starts and form on all types of ground.

Roger Varian has been unusually bullish about his 4-y-o Nahrain in the build up to this contest. She was highly progressive to win her first four starts in 2011, notably the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp, and then ran a superb second in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mares Turf afterward. However, she needs to put a poor reappearance run at Royal Ascot behind her (only ninth in the Windsor Forest Stakes with few excuses), and the market is likely to guide as to what is expected 45 days on.

Was represents the powerful Ballydoyle organisation and also merits plenty of respect with the drying ground sure to suit. She showed marked improvement when gamely landing the Oaks at Epsom (far better placed handily than the market principals), just proving a neck too strong for Shirocco Star in a thrilling finish. The very deep conditions were seemingly all against her in Irish Oaks next time and she is dangerous to dismiss dropping back down in trip with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

Timepiece has been a rare disappointment for Sir Henry Cecil this season and appears on the downgrade, while Clinical and Sea of Heartbreak are outclassed even if returning to their best.

Perhaps Lay Time is the each-way alternative for those hunting away from the obvious. Andrew Balding enjoyed a welcome double on Thursday after a quiet spell, and this Galileo filly turned in a career best effort when third in the Windsor Forest at the Royal meeting. She was a flop when fancied for the Falmouth at Newmarket last time out, but the testing ground is a valid excuse and this step up in trip on a faster surface may well prove ideal.

In summary, a brilliant clash of the best fillies and a chance for The Fugue to reverse the Oaks form. At around 7-2 this morning she is strongly recommended as a maximum win bet, expected to swoop in the closing stages if getting the gaps at this tricky undulating venue.

Stephen's Saturday Nap Improvisation 4.30 Goodwood

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