Minimise Risk to relish step up in trip on Day 4 of Royal Ascot

By Stephen, bettingexpert.com | Published 00:01 22.06.2012

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Cry Fury Newmarket

Andrew Balding's Minimise Risk had little chance in the Derby last time out but can improve for a big step up in trip to land the Queens Vase at 5.00.

Day Four of the Royal meeting begins with a wide open renewal of the Group 3 Albany Stakes, with the impressive Newmarket winner Newfangled expected to take all the beating. John Gosden's filly was sent off an unconsidered 14-1 chance there, but showed a rare turn of pace to quicken over four lengths clear of the heavily backed Hannon newcomer Fleeting Smile. She seems sure to improve for the experience and looks a top class prospect, with the rain eased ground no concern. Main dangers are Tassel, who's latest run is best overlooked (deserves another chance to show herself capable of better), and The Gold Cheongsam who shaped nicely on her debut and could go well for a yard with a fine record in this race.

The King Edward Vii Stakes sees Astology sure to start a short-priced favourite for the all conquering Ballydoyle team. However, he had a hard race when a gallant third in the Derby last time and he could be worth taking on with Noble Mission, who's progressing well and will be suited by this step up in trip. Thomas Chippendale is another who must be considered after routing handicap rivals in a warm contest at HQ two weeks ago.

Homecoming Queen is a strong selection in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at 3.45. She stormed clear to win the 1000 Guineas by nine lengths in May and has excuses for a disappointing effort when only fourth at the Curragh last time (ground far firmer than the official "good"). The rain easing the ground is in her favour and possibly against her main rivals, and she is expected to make all the running and see off Fallen for You and the unexposed Cardigan.

Gatewood is sure to be all the rage in the Listed handicap at 4.25, overcoming a very poor ride to win at Epsom last time out despite looking ill at ease on the camber. He appears a group horse in the making and is sure to be kept a lot closer to the pace this time. Progressive Danadana is the main danger after impressing in two wins at Redcar and Newmarket.

Minimise Risk is the nap of the day in the 2m Queens Vase at 5.00. Andrew Balding's 3-y-o has only had four career starts and faced a hopeless task in the Derby three weeks ago, but this represents a much more realistic assignment stepping up to a trip he's likely to relish. The lightly-raced pair Estimate and Yazdi are open to plenty of improvement and should not be underestimated.

The concluding Buckingham Stakes handicap is fiercely competitive as usual with the layers offering 10-1 the field this morning. Excellent Guest proved well suited by the demands of this contest when runner-up last year and bettered even that effort when narrowly denied in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday. Emilio Largo and Primaeval are others with pressing claims, whilst Mia's Boy may prove the pick of the longshots.

In summary, Minimise Risk can prove the bet of the day at around 7-1. Jamie Spencer excels on holding up smooth travellers in staying contests, and he can pounce late on to land the prize.

Stephen's Friday Nap Minimise Risk 5.00 Royal Ascot

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