Last 16 21/22-2-2012 – Who’s more blue?
By David, BettingExpert.com | Edited
Chelsea visit Napoli at the San Paolo and from how things have evolved for the two this season it is hard to say on which of them disappointed most. Both were expected to be fighting for top honours in their respective domestic leagues but they are lagging well behind schedule. Real Madrid kick off early a day before in icy cold Moscow whilst Inter go in search of the only thing that can really revive their season this year.
CSKA Moscow – Real Madrid
Technical differences are huge of course here. CSKA will not really be the enemy the Spaniards should be fearing on Tuesday. It is the -10 degrees they will find in Moscow that should be worrying Mourinho. Muscle injuries are more common in such conditions and some players may be battling that too.
Portuguese side Benfica have already suffered the consequences of a trip to Russia last week when they played Zenit and lost. They still did manage to score however, and they seemed to play better than their hosts at times too.
Real Madrid should enjoy the bigger share of the possession and CSKA will have to be imagined as trying to play the counter attack on the break. The current Real are a team which do seem unstoppable and nobody would blame the Russians if they decide to barricade themselves waiting for their chance.
Verdict: Under 2.5
A risky bet but a defensive setting from the hosts and the cold temperatures in Moscow which the Real players are not used to can keep this a low scoring one.
Napoli – Chelsea
If we know anything about these two sides from what they have shown so far is that they concede some ugly goals. The defensive setup is quite slack in both camps. Surprisingly so at Napoli where Mazzarri had worked well to make sure they do not let goals in that easily.
It has not worked for Napoli this year but perhaps the slump of Chelsea can be considered worse. Villas Boas does not have the team behind him and to impart a few lessons about how the defence should move in such conditions it is extremely difficult. Let alone if what he is asking of them is completely different from what recent predecessors had been performing at Chelsea. The Portuguese manager has also had to contend with star names like David Luis and Terry performing horribly more often than not.
However, Chelsea have the experience and this is always an asset in top level football. Will that be enough to defeat the support of a sold out San Paolo demanding that Napoli return to the glory of the Maradona days? Not quite perhaps but they have been tough months for Napoli too as they struggled to find the balance between competing in Europe and repeating, or improving actually, themselves in Serie A.
Cavani, Maggio and Inler have disappointed immensely this time round. The Swiss newcomer has perhaps been the ugliest surprise of all. He does need more work to fit in with this team. Having spent as much as €17 million for player who was supposed to pull the strings in midfield it is comprehensible if fans declare he has been nothing like he was expected to be.
The biggest problem for the Partenopei has been the defence though. The steps backward have been quite a few in comparison to last year and it is now clear they cannot make the step up amongst the top teams with the current crop of defenders they have. Britos, recently recovered from injury, may be the only who can survive if they were to make wholesale changes at the back.
This brings us to the betting choice for this game. Going for a winner is risky. Napoli’s enthusiasm versus Chelsea’s experience. I would have been inclined to back the home side given what they have done so far at the San Paolo on the big nights. However, Drogba’s return in attack and the weakness shown from set pieces against Fiorentina despite not conceding goals will have me back down. I will instead go for both of them to find the net.
Verdict: Both teams to score
Bookies seem undecided on whether both will be scoring or not. Odds are balanced yet high considering the weakness in defence the two teams have shown consistently this season.
Marseille – Inter
The ship is drowning fast at La Pinetina with Inter and everyone on board unable to do anything about the disaster which has struck. You would have felt they touched the very bottom when they lost to the worst team in Serie A this season. A home fixture against Novara. Then they surprise all of us with a third defeat on the bounce, once again at home against Bologna. That made four losses in the last five matches and the horror soon eclipsed the seven straight wins they managed up until mid-January.
The tragedy seemed to appear in the horizon though when the formation was announced and Ranieri once more turned to a new setup. Whenever he did that he almost always lost track of the team. The seven wins in a row were the result of a 4-4-2 system that was solid and relied on patience. Eventually they would find the net with two pure strikers lurking in the opponents’ box.
When Ranieri chose to make the change, for whatever reason he had, he simply threw away the compass once again and the Inter brigade got lost in high and rough seas …again.
In the post-match comments last Friday he was so broken hearted that one could see his eyes getting watery and blinking rapidly. He was almost on the verge of bursting out in tears until he broke the moment with a few forced laughs.
It is a delicate moment for Inter. Very delicate. The third place, which signifies the last chance of getting on the train to the Champions League next season is far away now as they slipped to sixth place and out of Europe. The Scudetto and the Coppa Italia are definitely a no go area for them. This is the only place where they can find solace and the pride they still hold should be evident in France.
I feel Ranieri should be turning once again to his reliable, and so far only setup which delivered results, 4-4-2 which calms the game down, reduces the pace and waits for the right ball to fall onto the feet of either Milito or Pazzini. The Argentine striker should be recovering for this match and travel with the team.
Marseille have never been a very impressive side in Europe. This year and the last they qualified with a few moderately good games in the group stage accompanied by below par performances even against weaker teams. They are quite unreliable and despite the god feet they have in the midfield and in attack they still struggle way too much to score goals. Out of the top six sides in Ligue 1 they have scored the least failing to score in six of their 23 games so far.
Deschamps’ players once again struggled to score against mid-table Valenciennes despite playing the best formation in an attempt not to distance themselves too much from the top three positions. Despite creating chances their finishing skills were poor again. They will also be missing important player Remy for this game.
The two managers will remember having met when the Italian was at the helm of Chelsea and Deschamps manager of Monaco. The winner of that semifinal Champions League clash went on to face Mourinho’s Porto and lose the final. Ranieri lost the semifinal to Deschamps and the job to Mourinho. This is his chance to get back on the forefront in Europe and convince Moratti he deserves to be confirmed for next year.
Verdict: Under 2.5
With very little faith in Marseille’s attacking players and with Ranieri likely to revert back to his faithful and defensive 4-4-2 I expect little action and few goals in France.
21.02.2012, 14:56 CET
Apparently Villas Boas has left some notes running around in Naples. This is how he is supposed to line up tonight.
Cech
Ivanovic Cahill Terry Cole
Meireles Essien Lampard
Ramires Sturridge Mata
Nothing confirmed yet but that is how the line-up is depicted on the notes he forgot, somewhere.
22.02.2012, 21:50 CET
An injury for Maicon. Didn't need this. Inter have held well and were dangerous at times in attack. Zarate should be subbed though. I would rather play Nagatomo up there.
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20.02.2012, 10:42 CET
Marseille's Diarra is a doubt for Deschamps.