Round 3 – Top of the table cup clash
By David, BettingExpert.com | Edited
The battle rages on and into the FA Cup fixture list. It definitely is too early for a high profile game like this one and quite difficult to justify given the relatively unimportant aura surrounding all other fixtures from this round. Yet we’ll take it and enjoy yet another clash between what seem the two best teams in England at the moment.
Birmingham – Wolves
The Brummies will be coming into this match from a draw against Peterborough and headed towards an important home game against Ipswich that can help them recover ground in the Championship and approximate the playoff regions.
Now it is clear that for neither team this FA Cup round three fixture is an immediate priority. McCarthy, however, did give some space to players who are not exactly regulars. They showed enough girt to go close to another upset but Lampard took Chelsea ahead as the injury time was nearing close. The manager may try to consolidate his position at the club by avoiding headlines speaking about the team’s elimination against a Championship side. With White Hart Lane their next destination McCarthy may well choose to line up his starters here rather and offer some rotation again against Tottenham. In any case a number of players who started against Chelsea might benefit the team if they start here as well.
At home against Wolves the record for Birmingham is 2-4-2. Not a very encouraging one. They last played in the FA Cup almost three years from the date of this match and Wolves ran out 0-2 winners away from home.
Verdict: Wolves 0:0
Bookmaker favour Birmingham because they are yet to lose a game at home. Their priority should be the game they recover in midweek against Ipswich though since they want to be at least in the playoff region as soon as possible. Wolves’ schedule is less demanding and after the Chelsea disappointment they might be up for a strong, redeeming display.
Newcastle – Blackburn
Kean rinsed out every last drop of sweat from the few players he had available over the busy festive period. Having rewarded him with a draw at Anfield and a memorable victory at Old Trafford this will be the chance to give most of his men a break. There are more pressing matters he has to attend to and no round three cup clash will be taking priority over trying to secure their Premier League status.
A tough ask indeed but Kean has seen the latest signs as very encouraging. With Wolves and Queens Park Rangers both losing their respective matches there are now only three points separating them from the two and thus the chance to move out of the relegation zone.
Pardew’s Magpies have actually managed to collect less points than 19th placed Blackburn since mid-November. They had five in total whilst Blackburn had eight. The downfall in fortunes had been evident and the need for getting back up on their feet was urgent. Less so now though, after the beating they gave Manchester United. It seems their urgency for a win was higher than expected and now their point tally looks to being back on the right track.
The home side’s injury situation is much less important with Taylor and Guthrie the main worries for Pardew. Nothing major though. The African Cup of Nations will deprive them of two of their best players in Tiote and Ba but that should not matter much against a rotated Blackburn side.
Verdict: 1
The home game against Fulham is what Kean will be sparing his players for. Newcastle have been solid for most of their home games and with the United victory under their belts they should retain the confidence even if Pardew makes a few changes. Some forced like those of Ba and Tiote. Two jolly players but whose absence should not be fatal against Blackburn.
Manchester City – Manchester United
The battle between the two for the throne of England continues and for this weekend it will extend out of Premier League boundaries and into the realm of the oldest cup competition of the football World.
Both suffered early elimination from the Champions League, one more shocking than the other, but may now reserve us the joy of doing a Real Madrid vs Barcelona déjà vu from 2011 by meeting late on in the Europa League. There is a lot reserved for the two teams this season and their destiny is inexorably linked some way or another.
Having met twice already the tally of goals now stands at twelve in total. Eight for City and four for United. Last season Rooney’s overhead kick, which won goal of the season for many fans, claimed the only victory for Ferguson’s men as they then went on to lose the FA Cup semifinal via a Toure goal. Despite the end result in all three meetings it was United’s superiority which emerged more clearly. This season things looked on the way to changing when Mancini saw his team lead by two goals in the half time of the Community Shield game back in August. Three unusual substitutions from Ferguson in the interval, removing Vidic, Ferdinand and Carrick and replacing them with younger options in Evans, Jones and Cleverley turned things around and United won over 90 minutes.
The last chapter of the saga was the one that finally had Manchester City convince all of their power and this time they were more than deserving of victory. A 1-6 result at Old Trafford could not fall short of being just that.
Explaining that result must involve a quick analysis of Ferguson’s thought process. Having lost to Barcelona and been beaten soundly by a more graceful and effective style of football Ferguson must have embraced the attacking philosophy. It looked like it was paying out dividends up to that point when they had to welcome City since they thrashed Arsenal with an unbelievable 8-2 victory and were looking to have somewhat overcome the away complex which had afflicted the team the previous season. With a man down Ferguson still opted for three strikers on the pitch but their opponents’ passing ability made it much harder to actually get the ball and do something with it. It was a just punishment for having underestimated the opponent.
That is what will be coming to Ferguson’s mind ahead of this match. He has often snubbed cup games, sometimes fielding weakened sides even in the Champions League but this is a battle for honour. He may lose the league but he will need to at least be able to say he did not bow down in front of the rivals, especially after having made so much fun of them with useless remarks like the clichéd and overused “honours can’t be bought” statement.
It is very difficult to conceive of a United team not at its best on Sunday. Hopefully Ferdinand and Smalling will be available and the squabbles with Rooney over his long New Year’s eve night out should be over. Mancini can once again consider himself lucky at not having had to deal with real injuries to his players but the Ivory Coast FA has not allowed the Toure brothers to stay on for this game. Yaya will be missed but Aguero should be playing behind Balotelli with De Jong alongside Barry. Quite a miss for Mancini but the team should not be a weak one.
What I would have doubts about would be City’s commitment to cup games. I still think Mancini will not be making a lot of rotation but after having complained for the mere 48 hours of rest before the Liverpool game he may repeat the shifts as with Sunderland in the game before. In three days’ time they will also be in for a Carling Cup semifinal with Liverpool whilst United have no such appointment on their calendar.
Verdict: Manchester United 0:0
United’s commitment should be greater despite their problems being equally worse than those of City. Two Premier League defeats on the bounce and Ferguson’s antipathy for the new boys on the block, worse still demonstrating themselves better than the reigning champions, should be enough for higher motivations coming into this game. Then there is that 1-6 humbling. It is certainly, at face value, not the time to be pinning hopes on United but I reckon they have a bill to settle with City and although in the long run it will be Mancini who proves worthy for the title his squad is still one step behind that team spirit, sense of urgency and determination which has allowed United to stay on top of the pile for so long even if not with the best players in the division.
07.01.2012, 20:06 CET
Ferguson is pretty pissed off at Mancini's talent as a manager and the sudden turn in fortunes within Manchester. City are better equipped and injuries happen much less frequently over there.
The reason behind my selection is that I rate United's pride as a very dangerous element. I still have not seen the same spirit in City and Mancini has often lamented that about his team too. Some of their away displays and the home game with Arsenal showed they still to go one better in order to be so strong to deserve being rated as true favourites against United.
Besides, the 1-6 did include three goals in four minutes as the game headed towards the end. The result is an overestimation of what City did that day. I have thus far never seen City truly dominate United in the past years.
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06.01.2012, 10:51 CET
I agree the Manchester match has taken on extra importance, especially as the Champions League is lost for both. However, not losing is just as important to Mancini as it is to Ferguson.
Neither will want to be knocked out at this stage to their bitter rivals, therefore I'm sure both teams will be as full strength as possible.
United may try to kill the game with fouls and flare-ups, like they used to against Arsenal. It often worked because SAF got into Wenger's head. However, I believe Mancini is now in SAF's head and the home win is very generously priced.