May 12th - 13th : Points to prove
By Andrew, bettingexpert.com | Edited
Google+: Andrew Brocker
Rayo Vallecano vs Granada
Rayo find themselves caught up in a relegation scrap mainly due to their form since mid-March. Over their 10 matches played since that time, they have lost 9 while somehow managing a 6-0 home win over Osasuna in early April. Across those 9 losses they scored on just 6 occasions while conceding 30 times. With one game to play they sit in 17th place just goal difference separating them from 18th placed Real Zaragoza and 3 points and a goal difference of 5 separating them from 19th placed Sporting Gijon. A Gijon win is unlikely as they travel to 4th placed Malaga. On the other hand Zaragoza will travel to mid-table Getafe. So it's all on the line for Rayo this weekend as they host a club they defeated away from home 2-1, early in the 2011-2012 campaign.
Granada themselves are not entirely out of the relegation battle. They need a result, a draw will see themselves survive while a loss could see their life in the top flight of Spanish football in jeopardy. And it's been a reasonable run of late for the club. They have won 3 of their last 8 matches, managing to claim a draw in another 2. However, their form away from home this season has not been anything to get too excited about. They have won 4 times on the road in 2011/2012 with back to back away victories over Sevilla and Athletic Club in November the best of the bunch. The bad news : they lost 13 times, which is a league high for away losses this season as we head into the final round of 2011/2012.
Rayo have been posted as 1.83 favourites for this final match of the season with the visitors trading at 4.20 receiving a handicap of +0.75 goals.
Verdict – Goals are expected with the Over/Under hovering between 2.75 and 3.00 goals. Let's take the Over 3 goals.
Obscure Stat – Over the last 5 La Liga seasons, when promoted clubs have met, the home club has won in 18 of 29 matches played for a win profitability of 36% with just 2 of those 29 matches ending in a draw.
Malaga vs Sporting Gijon
Malaga head into this end of season home fixture in 4th place. A top 3 finish it out of the questions as they sit 6 points behind 3rd placed Valencia. Falling out of the top 4 however is a possibility. Should they lose at home this weekend, the door will open for each of Athletico Madrid and Levante to make the leap. Fortunately, they face a club that is sitting in 19th place. Unfortunately, it is a club they lost to earlier in the season, a 1-2 loss a Gijon in mid-January. They have however not lost at home in the last 6 meetings between the clubs, winning on 3 occasions including 2 of the last 3.
Sporting sit in 19th placed after a disappointing 2011/2012 campaign. They've lost 20 matches this season, 2nd only to Ray Vallecano as we head into the final weekend of play. They have however given themselves their best shot of surviving for another season of La Liga as over the last month they have won 4 of 6 matches played, including a 3-2 win over 6th placed Levante. They will have to hope for a similarly unlikely result away to 4th placed Malaga this weekend. Over the last 4 La Liga seasons, they have managed to win just once when playing away to clubs positioned between 3rd and 5th on the table.
Malaga have been posted as short priced 1.33 favourites, with Sporting trading at odds in the 8.00 range receiving a +1.5 goal handicap.
Verdict – The Over/Under is trading between 3.25 and 3.5 goals. Malaga should get the job done without much fuss. Under 3.5 goals.
Obscure Stat – Only 2 of the last 13 meetings between the clubs have seen fewer than 2 goals, with no match going without a goal.
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