Premier League – Round 19 – Trotters galloping ahead
By David, BettingExpert.com | Edited
It was another Boxing Day full of surprises this year and although we did not really get any major upsets there were seven draws – record equaling in the Premier League – which included Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool being held at home and leaders Manchester City drawing goalless against West Bromwich Albion. This weekend City have another tricky trip to the Stadium of Light whilst Chelsea and Liverpool may risk draws against Villa and Newcastle respectively. At the bottom of the table Bolton will be up against Wolves in a key match for relegation matters.
Liverpool – Newcastle
It must be tough for Reds fans at the moment. The inability to find the net despite creating so much will be leaving them wondering where they might be now had they notched at couple more wins instead of drawing those games against bottom ten opposition.
What will boost confidence is knowing that Liverpool have always given a good account of themselves against the top teams and besides winning away to Arsenal and Chelsea they should have also cleared the table against the Manchester clubs at Anfield but had to settle for 1-1 scores for the usual reasons.
The Suarez suspension news for the middle finger gesture to Fulham fans early this month will bring smiles to Magpie supporters. Things started looking good after a six-match winless streak when they won at the Reebok but they had to wait for Bolton’s usual dip in the final part of the match to really threaten.
Verdict: Under 2.5
I did not like Newcastle much against Bolton despite the three points. So far they only played the Manchester clubs away from home when it comes to top opposition. That explains their four wins and two defeats from nine games. We have to look at those games for inspiration as to how Pardew will line up his team and the key feature is defensive solidity. They lost some of that with one of the Taylors out but with Williamson back there is a good central partnership with Coloccini now. Suarez will be missing for Liverpool and this increases chances of seeing few goals here. The home side might edge it in the end but that is what we have been saying for far less complicated matches in Liverpool’s case.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Premier League seasons, when Liverpool have played at home after collecting between 6 and 8 points from their previous 5 home matches, they have lost just once in 16 matches played.
Bolton – Wolves
Two definite relegation candidates but if you ask me I cannot really see Bolton going down. I respect how Coyle works and given the limited resources he has been battling ghosts in the past months. Key injuries left him short in certain areas on the pitch and if the club move about well to get the necessary reinforcements I would say that they will definitely stay up this season.
That is something I am not willing to say about Wolves. There is an air of concealed despair at the club with McCarthy’s somewhat upbeat spirit that should make Wolves fans shudder. That is strange because they have some quality men but I still see how the manager at times does look like giving up.
With that said it is Wolves which should be coming into this match in better shape. They have travelled to the Emirates and survived, staying unbeaten in back to back games for only the second time this season. No three-pointers but still two valuable draws for them that can make the whole difference come May.
No need to stress the fact that they suffered in London and that their goal was somewhat lucky. They never really threatened Arsenal but some may think they should have more goal scoring chances at the Reebok Stadium. Despite the urgent appeal against the unfair dismissal of Milijas hopes are low of getting the three-match ban rescinded. With O’Hara also out the central midfield area will be a worry for McCarthy.
Having been able to reunite Reo-Cocker with Muamba in the Trotters own midfield and with Robinson back at left back after the injury Coyle has been able to provide more of a challenge to opponents. The victory over Blackburn was a huge boost but it will mean nothing to their struggles of warding off relegation if they fail to win this match.
Verdict: 1
After a horrendous start this is a match Coyle will have circled in red a long time ago. It is a must win and if they prevent any of the distractions that have been hampering their final 30 minutes they can take the precious three points and drift closer to getting out of the danger zone. Bolton also have a very good home record against the Wolves.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Premier League seasons, when a club is playing away after having earned between 0 and 1 pts in the last 5 away matches, as Wolves have, they have won just 92 of 528 matches played for a win profitability of minus 24%.
Chelsea – Aston Villa
It would probably be more likely to see Chelsea lose at the Molineux rather than here. Aston Villa’s record against top ten clubs has been awful with McLeish’s defensive approach clearly not benefiting the club. Out of their four wins three of them have come against the current bottom three teams. The other was a close call against Norwich at home.
To the Villains’ and McLeish’s credit it must be said that out of nine away matches they have only lost twice, both against top of the crop – City and Spurs. Therefore, how should we read into this one?
A look at recent games against the big clubs shows a difference in approach with it being quite clear as they moved on from the game with Liverpool to the successive one against the Gunners. They were more eager to attack Arsenal and could have taken at least a point there. Both games, however, were at Villa Park. McLeish will most likely not be adventurous on the road. Stamford Bridge is not the place so he will most probably stick to the tried and tested. Defence.
The doubts surrounding Bent do nothing to change the manager’s mind over that one. Villas Boas, on the other side of the river, will be glad to start with Drogba after giving a rare start to Torres in the tight Christmas schedule. One which he probably regretted after the third consecutive draw, this time against Fulham.
Verdict: Chelsea -1.25
Having conceded that their title credentials are practically over Villas Boas cannot afford to slip up for the fourth consecutive time against Villa. The visitors have a good record against Chelsea but in their current conditions they will only be hoping for a point. I’m going for Chelsea to boss the game and find their way to goal multiple times.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Premier League seasons, Chelsea have come off a run of 3 successive drawn matches three times, twice playing at home where they won once against Wigan, drawing on the other occassion against Man United.
Norwich – Fulham
Many had expected more from the Norwich vs Tottenham game in midweek and the missing part was due to Norwich mainly. They never really threatened Spurs and that was unusual for them at home. It is true that so far they have been a menace to the bigger sides at Carrow Road but despite the final result before the 0-2 against Tottenham they had given good displays. They deserved to be shut out but that was only the second time it happened for them at home in nine games.
Jol’s Fulham will not be exactly what you would call a top team. In fact they are performing way below expectations and the record on their travels is awful. The new manager is yet to get a grip on things with his most notable ‘achievements’ thus far being making Zamora, last season’s top player, a fringe man for the team and getting them kicked out of the Europa League in the final seconds of a match they should have sealed way before.
Recently the Cottagers did manage two draws away from home. Those were at Arsenal and at Chelsea. Two derbies which had them perform better than usual due to motivations. These came lacking for the other away game in between when they travelled to the Britannia to face Swansea. There they lost 2-0. I would not have minded going for both to score here given Norwich’s propensity to ship goals. However, there are doubts surrounding the fitness of Johnson, Duff and Zamora hampering attacking options for Fulham.
Verdict: 1
After so many games played I expect Fulham to dip in form at this point of the season. The Cottagers are also very poor travelers and if you add to that that Zamora, Johnson and Duff are doubts for this trip I will not hesitate in backing the Canaries at odds above the 2.60 mark despite the home side managing just one draw in the most recent six meetings with the London club.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Premier League seasons, Fulham have failed to defeat a promoted club away from home. In 16 contests, they have lost 8 and drawn 8.
Write a comment
Please read our debate etiquette before commenting
| 
|
29.12.2011, 18:53 CET
Ba is not 100% fit but may still play against Liverpool. It will be a blow if Newcastle lose out on Ba though given he is the team's only real goal threat.