Serie A – Round 10 – Genoa vs Inter
By David, BettingExpert.com | Edited
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If Inter win this one they can be back on the train to Europe, at least in seventh position, hoping it gives them some confidence to keep pushing in the league now that the Champions League competition breaks for winter. They would be three very important points and Ranieri knows the team will need to be patient in opening up Genoa, just like they did against Fiorentina.
Genoa – Inter
Unlike with Milan Genoa have a less enviable record with Inter. Including two Coppa Italia meetings Inter are unbeaten against Genoa for the last eleven games. The last three Serie A encounters at the Marassi have all been won by the Nerazzurri, scoring eight in the process and always keeping clean sheets.
Having lost their first home encounter against Milan after a few seasons this may be the time to change things around with Inter. The Nerazzurri look like they will be making this shift in fortunes easy as they go through one of most horrible seasons in their recent history.
Ranieri’s men are coming from three points against Fiorentina. Fully deserved. The manager surely has not managed to get full control over the team. He is still perplexed as to how to get them playing and has been shifting formations frequently. In these situations, where it is clear the team is in transition mode and feeling the input of key players, managers usually shift to a 4-4-2 providing solidity and keeping the players’ psychological status intact for a long enough time not to go behind and get scattered once again.
The 4-4-2 did give them stability and Fiorentina in fact shot for the first time at Inter’s goal posts some twenty minutes from the final whistle. In the meantime Inter kept going forward and trying to harm the Viola’s defence.
The main threat was coming from the right hand side were Maicon returned to action. He makes a lot of difference and together with Sneijder is the man in charge of creating danger. The good news for Ranieri keep on coming as he should also recover the Dutchman for this game. Additionally Pazzini was back in scoring form and this is always great news for a striker. He has last scored for the team in the league in September.
Malesani was not short on good news either after having witnessed his side gain advantage over Siena and seal a win that extended his stay at the club. Rumours had been circulating that owner Preziosi was giving him only a few games before sacking him. Palacio was back from suspension and their strike force was therefore sharp. Ze Eduardo, the big summer signing, has come back in contention after a long layoff but he is short on match fitness. Pratto and Caracciolo have disappointed and the club is expected to be back on the market in January.
It still is a team which struggles, despite the victory. Their opponent was a relegation candidate on Saturday and although Siena did lose they did have their chances. Genoa are another proposition altogether at home. That is true. Yet they only convinced against Catania and Novara. Looking back at the other home games they were poor against Atalanta and Lecce, against which they got draws. Then lost against Milan although they were less disastrous probably because the approach was a defensive one given the absence of Palacio.
Malesani is not one to hide and would have preferred to go for it but the Palacio injury changes everything. Without the best of their strikers I wonder whether the manager will actually field two of the other three strikers who have so far not been able to make any difference. I expect him to shore up the men in midfield trying Jorquera in front of Veloso and Constant, acting as a shoulder to one striker.
The problem for Genoa would still be that the midfield is rich of players that are much better going forward than recovering it from the opponents. Ranieri’s 4-4-2 should keep the gaps well closed and they should find it quite easy to go through the Genoa midfield lacking the required muscle. An in form Pazzini should not need many chances to convert at least one.
Verdict: Inter -0.25
So far, every time that Inter has given positive signs it was shot back down straight away in subsequent games. The Marassi will not be an easy pitch but Genoa are going through darker times and with Palacio ruled out the hosts will very likely not be able to bite. Inter will though, especially if Sneijder is back on the field partnering a rediscovered Pazzini upfront.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when Genoa are coming off a win playing against an opponent coming off a win, their opponents have won 7 of 14 matches for a win profitability of 34%.
12.12.2011, 16:36 CET
Great preview David. Your preview saved me backing the both to score option in this match. With Palacio and all the offensive forces at Inter missing, this one really tends to go under (priced at 1.76 @188bet). Six of the last eight matches of Genoa where going under, including three of their last four home matches. Inter also played in 5 of their last 7 matches under.
Despite their positive head-to-head stats, as you've mentioned, Inter will have a though task to obtain all three points at the Marassi. Further interesting stats. Inter won three of the last four matches at Genoa to nil (0-1, 0-5, 0-2), with the 1-1 draw being in the season 2007/2008. But in every single game Inter took the lead and was leading at HT!
Conclusion. High under probability or Inter leading at halftime!
12.12.2011, 16:54 CET
Thanks poglavica.
Genoa have given a lot in the Siena match. They are far from over the crisis though and without Palacio I expect an Inter clean sheet.
The Nerazzurri's 4-4-2 is gaining in solidity. I won't rule out an away victory but Inter should again start slowly and be patient until they find their way to goal.
I have to correct myself because latest news say that Milito is actually a doubt and not definitely ruled out yet. Ranieri will decide tomorrow morning whether to play the striker. Still, if he plays he will only strengthen the Under thesis given his really poor form.
Pazzini should be the danger man after having finally scored last Saturday. As an ex-Samp striker he may feel comfortable scoring against Genoa.
14.12.2011, 01:08 CET
It is great to see Inter back on the winning track. Did Forlan play this match?
14.12.2011, 11:52 CET
Yes he did get some time on the field in the final minutes. I liked his approach at a time when the team needed to keep possession.
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12.12.2011, 16:16 CET
Maicon, Ranocchia and Milito have not been called up for this match. The Brazilian's absence will have an effect.
With both sides having few dangerous men on the pitch an Under bet would look good this time.