Round 19 – Old Lady ahead
By David, BettingExpert.com | Published
As Ranieri prepares to match Mourinho’s record of eight wins on the trot both Milan and Juventus look to matches considered winnable and prepare to take the title of ‘winter winners’, meaning that they would be leading when the first round of games would be over. Cagliari and Lecce have tough games at home but they are important for teams which have been disappointing at home all season. With an extra effort they should take the points home. Palermo and Genoa meet up for what ought be an entertaining encounter at the Barbera.
Roma – Cesena
It was not looking good for Roma in Catania last weekend. They were lucky the rain brought a halt to a show. Luis Enrique will be focusing on the next matches but they will be a lot now and the injuries to Osvaldo, De Rossi and Burdisso make their struggles uphill. Lamela, who has been doing great for his new team, will play but his ankle is not fully recovered.
With a morale-boosting win under their belts against a fellow relegation candidate, Novara, Cesena can look ahead with optimism and I do believe they are up for some good games in the coming days.
Luis Enrique, coming from the Spanish world of football, will not be snubbing the midweek Coppa Italia game at the Juventus stadium. This will wear out the players he has available.
Verdict: Under 2.5
I really think Cesena can manage to hold Roma for a point. What is more probable is that the guests can keep a Roma side missing important players out of their box so I’m going for an Under.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when Roman have hosted a visitor positioned between 17th and 19th on the table, they have not lost in 17 matches played, with the draw paying a profitability of 30%.
Atalanta – Juventus
The discovery and untangling of the web of lies and match fixing that has involved Atalanta has now started to show its effects. The six points of penalty have been swept aside after an excellent start to their campaign but Denis looks to have exhausted the goals and the team performed quite badly against Lazio, despite being a better side in some instances of the match.
In addition, Colantuono will have to do without important players for this delicate match. In defence Capelli and Bellini are injured whilst Lucchini is suspended. Carmona in midfield is suspended too and Brighi should not be available to replace him. He will be able to patch a team up but there are few alternatives he can turn to.
Conte has more options and with none of the important players who have taken the team this far ruled out he should be able to go for the kill in a difficult pitch where however they have historically prevailed.
Verdict: 2
Atalanta have put up some fantastic displays in front of their fans but their personnel situation at the moment is one which cannot hold ambitious Juventus from having it their way.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when a promoted club has hosted a club positioned in 1st place, the match has been drawn in 8 of 18 matches played, for a profitability of 45%.
Cagliari – Fiorentina
What a great game for Cagliari away to Juventus last weekend. I expected that and even predicted they might have gone and won it too. In fact, had the referee seen the two clear penalties they were owed it would have been the Bianconeri’s first defeat of the season. It was not to be and now they look to focus on getting their home record in line. Ibarbo looks like having adapted very well to the Serie A. Still, he lacks the goals though so the recovery of players like Thiago Ribeiro and El Kabir will be essential in getting Ballardini to collect the points.
Fiorentina will not be going down but it has been a difficult season for them. Rossi has asked for a striker to be added to the team and finally it looks like Amauri will be joining from Juventus. After the weekend though so it will once again be a trip with many uncertainties for them.
Verdict: 1
Fiorentina’s game has to develop on the strong striker upfront who finishes the ball into the net. Amauri will not be arriving in time for this game so I expect Cagliari to suffer very little at the back. Hopefully they can find the winner themselves and collect all three points.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when Cagliari have hosted a club positioned between 13th and 15th on the table, they have won 7 of 12 matches played for a win profitability of 40%.
Lecce – Chievo
Still winless at home, Cosmi will have battered his players in order to get them to understand the crucial nature of this encounter. Chievo usually travel poorly but they can close themselves up and wait for the right time to strike. Knowing that Lecce are an attacking side and will be going for the three points from the start will only strengthen Di Carlo’s tactical beliefs.
The quality Cosmi can boast in attack is, however, very good. Di Michele is in great shape and I would be glad to have him on the to score anytime market. Muriel and Cuadrado are two dangerous Colombians too.
Verdict: 1
It should not be a walk in the park but I do think Lecce’s desperation for points should earn them the three points. Chievo were not very much in shape in their home victory over Palermo. They looked tired and will perhaps be thinking about their golden opportunity to get to the Coppa Italia semifinals when they meet Siena on Wednesday.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when a home club positioned between 18th and 20th on the table has hosted a club positioned between 9th and 11th, the away club has won just 6 times in 44 matches played.
Palermo – Genoa
New manager Mutti is already under fire after the displays of this Palermo side. Mangia, still under contract with the Rosanero, is waiting to get back on board. Mutti has yet to decide on which shape he ought to give to this team. He has some good players but striking a balance with this side has always been elusive for many a manager. They have either been excellent in attack and awful in defence or else unable to go for the goals and win the game. An excellent home form but an awful record on the road. With a bad-tempered and impatient boss like Zamparini things are definitely not easier.
Hernandez will still not recover. His goals have been missed sorely. Pisano is a doubt in defence but there will be Viviano and Donati making their debuts.
After six straight home wins Palermo succumbed to two defeats, against Cesena and Napoli. Up next are two home games for them and a good chance to get that strong point of their to become an asset again. Genoa is not a team you will want to meet right now though. Marino rested a number of players in mid-week but in defence there are huge problems. Central duo Granqvist and Moretti had to work overtime given the absence of Kaladze, Bovo and Dainelli, who should be absent at Palermo too. Antonelli is also a doubt and Rossi is suspended. Constant, who has been filling up at left-back surprisingly well, picked up an injury against Inter on Thursday too so he adds to Marino’s doubts.
Verdict: X
I predict that after mid-February Mangia will have come back to replace Mutti on the Palermo bench. Genoa is a place brewing with confidence at the moment and despite the problems at the back I expect them to find the net and match Palermo’s goals. An Over bet is one to back here too.
Obscure Stat - Over the last 6 Serie A seasons, when a home club that has lost its last 2 home games has played an away club that had lost their last 2 away games, the game has been drawn in 6 of 15 matches played for a profitability of 32%.
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