Serie A – Round 3 – Milan-based teams back on track
By David, BettingExpert.com | Edited
It has been a strange weekend in terms of betting with many favourites disappointing. Teams do need time to settle down before they can get on track so it is important to keep stakes low at the start. In Italy, just like in France and in Spain, they recover a round of games this week and here is the low down on this matchday.
Novara – Inter
So what’s the problem with Inter? Is it really the three-man defence new boss Gasperini is trying to impose on the team? It may be playing a part but only because everybody around the team is speaking about how they are not used to that system.
It is not just a mere psychological block though. The squad is not really composed of the right men to build towards this 3-4-3 which Gasperini has been using since time immemorial. Sneijder will not fit there and given that he is the main, or rather only, source of inspiration for the team he has to be on the field. Therefore, modification number one is getting the playmaker behind the two strikes.
In the typical 3-4-3 the two full-backs / midfielders have to run a lot. They have to put those dangerous balls inside the box. Against Roma Gasperini opted for leaving new boy Jonathan on the bench, moving Nagatomo on the right and giving defensive midfielder Obi the left flank. That was a big foul and in fact things looked better when those decisions were reversed against Roma.
The Giallorossi visited the San Siro on Saturday night and kept most of the ball in their feet. However, Inter had the clearest chances and here we come to another foul by Gasperini. He keeps insisting on playing Milito instead of Pazzini and the Argentine failed to turn in big chances once again. Inter president Moratti has often admitted he likes Pazzini better so going against that may hasten Gasperini’s sacking.
To add insult to injury new signings Zarate and Forlan have been playing solo on the pitch. They have so far looked like fish out of water. What wouldn’t any Inter fan give to have Eto’o back instead of the pair.
Novara have battled back from two goals down to snatch a appoint in Verona against Chievo. Last Saturday they had another away match, in Sardegna this time. After gifting two goals to Cagliari they embarked on another comeback mission but fell short by one goal.
Verdict: 2
Inter are far from healed. The ship is going down fast but Novara are too weak to trouble them. Quality should separate between the two. It has also been eight months since Inter kept a clean sheet away from home so an over bet may be appropriate here too.
Milan – Udinese
Milan’s problem is Pirlo. They gave him away to Juventus and now find themselves short of inspiration. Can it be that simple an explanation? The Diavoli have, even last season, been devoid of that important characteristic but they made up for the quick precise passing with the superior capabilities of their main men – Ibrahimovic, Boateng and Seedorf’s super season. Add to that an unusually leaky defence and you get one point from the first two league games.
In neither of the games played so far, against Lazio and Napoli, did they produce much in attack. Ibrahimovic had been the solution in the first part of the season and Boateng in the second part. Neither will be recovered for the upcoming games. Gattuso and Ambrosini will miss out again and that is particularly bad news given the weak performance by Dutch duo Seedorf and van Bommel in Napoli’s San Paolo.
Emanuelson should be drafted in whilst Aquilani can also be relied upon to give some verve upfront. Pato is in a very good form and I will expect him to deal some damage to Udinese’s often disorganized backline.
Guidolin’s men have now managed three wins in a row counting the midweek Europa League clash with Rennes. In their Serie A opener against Lecce things were made easy by their hosts. When they welcomed stronger opposition in Rennes and Fiorentina they were less impressive, especially against the French side.
Robinho should recover but his presence is still a doubt.
Verdict: Milan -1
Just like Inter the Rossoneri have only one point to their name but theirs are not deep seated problems. They may struggle until they recover key players from injury but Udinese should gift too many spaces for a patched up Milan side not to take advantage of that and collect the first three points.
Cesena – Lazio
This game may be decided by Lazio fans who have been protesting to get Reja sacked since last season. They simply don’t like him and don’t care about how he had managed to get just one step away from the Champions League. At the time of writing Biancocelesti boss Lotito is meeting with Reja urgently and it may be plausible to think he intends to resign from his post. That would destabilize the Lazio camp for a few days.
Cesena may be able to take advantage of that because they have the right players to improve on last season. They are coming from an undeserved defeat against Catania and do want to get back on track quickly after two games which returned nothing in terms of points.
Verdict: Cesena +0.5
With Lazio manager Reja undecided whether to give in to the fans’ pressure and resign Cesena can topple a shell-shocked Lazio coming from a shock home loss against Genoa after a brilliant first half.
Chievo – Napoli
The Lanceri played a very good second half at Parma on Sunday but they still gave away a goal in the final minutes, losing 2-1 and staying put in the table with just one point to their name. In the first match they were caught back by Novara. Di Carlo is yet to come to terms with the loss of some departed players and now that Pellisier is injured he will have to fall back on Paloschi. The youngster can cause troubles and will be especially fired up not to let this chance slip by.
Mazzarri can help Chievo out if he chooses to rest some key players ahead of a tight schedule which will present them with Fiorentina, Villareal and Inter before the international break.
Lavezzi is injured an Inler and Maggio – all three top performers in this start of the season – should be rested and replaced by Zuniga and Dzemaili.
Verdict: X
This is a delicate match to bet on but small stakes can back the draw. Chievo have been one of three teams to beat Mazzarri’s Napoli twice last season. This year the Partenopei are stronger but Chievo will miss star player Pellisier who can deal the killing blow and who scored two of the five goals against Napoli last year. Watch out for Paloschi though. He may help parent club Milan by holding Napoli.
Juventus – Bologna
Conte is the right man to guide this new look Juventus. We cannot really dismiss his predecessors who tried to steer the Bianconeri throughout these turbulent times for the club because they did not have such a huge financial backing from the club. But the ex-midfielder seems to have got the energy to make something big out of this project.
The team was not brilliant at Siena but 0-1 wins away from home are always a positive sign in a tough league like Serie A. Pirlo was excellent once again but the strikers need a wake-up call. Otherwise Del Piero and Toni may be alternatives this Wednesday. Vucinic should rest given the below par performance.
Bologna disappointed again but they do play well for stretches of the match. However, it usually all has to go through Diamanti’s feet. That is a weakness which should have them pay dearly against a revitalized Juventus side.
Verdict: Juventus -1
Back home Juventus should not be troubled much by a stuttering Bologna still looking for a concrete game plan to adopt. The home defeat against Lecce was emblematic and could only have demoralized the side ahead of this difficult trip.
Roma – Siena
In their first midweek match last season Roma travelled to Brescia where they lost 2-1. This time they welcome Siena and given the way they dominated at the San Siro, more in terms of possession than anything else though, they should have no problems on paper.
Nonetheless Luis Enrique’s attempt to impose a Barcelona-style of play on Roma still worries me. It is pretty impressive, sure. But it was clear that other than a lot of possession it gave them no edge over Inter. Pragmatically there was not much they could get. Instead it was them which risked going under on a number of occasions.
Realistically, playing 34-year old Perrotta and 32-year old Taddei as full backs, despite both being offensive midfielders, can only bring damage. Siena will be waiting for them. That is the main difference from playing at the San Siro against Inter. Sannino’s gameplan will be the oldest in the world of football. Wait for them and then hit on the counter attack. The thing is that they can do that very well given that it has been what they practiced for this season. Roma have only tried out their champagne football for a few weeks and the continuous changes all over the pitch show that Luis Enrique is far from having found the answers.
Verdict: Siena +0.5
Odds are high for this bet because it may be a long shot given the display of the Giallorossi against Inter. However, Luis Enrique’s style is too risky and uncompromising for Italian football. I would go for small stakes with the shock away win here as well.
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