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Rugby World Cup 2011 Semi-Finals - One Step Away
By Andrew, BettingExpert.com | Edited
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This weekend sees the last four nations remaining in the 2011 Rugby World Cup square off for the right to play in the final on the 23rd of October. Saturday sees Wales and France battle while traditional rivals Australia and New Zealand face one another on Sunday.
Wales vs France
15th October - Eden Park, Aukland.
The Welsh team has defied its critics this World Cup. Not many experts expected them to survive the pool stage which saw them compete with South Africa, Fiji and Samoa for the right to compete in the knockout phase of the tournament. And after finishing fourth in the Six-Nations tournament, even the most earnest Welsh fan would have had to admit, their nation would not likely go far in World Cup 2011.
But for all the naysaying, Wales have exceeded even the most lofty of hopes. After an impressive display in the quarters against Ireland, winning 22-10, they now face France and do so as modest favourites. At a price of 1.77 to the France's 2.12, and line of around 1 to 1.5 points, the Welsh team could now see themselves facing off in the final. Right now they are around the 6.00 mark to win the tournament outright, with everyone who took them in the plus 30-1 range pre-tournament, no doubt hedging to their hearts content.
The quarter-final win over Ireland showed what this Welsh team is capable of. Lead by captain Sam Warburton, they played an exciting and swift brand of rugby, which saw their pacey backline impose itself upon the Irish team. They look to be playing a more daring and offensive style under coach Warren Gatland, of New Zealand origin, with a lineup full of youth and ambition. They are playing with confidence having just one loss to their name this World Cup, a one point loss to South Africa, a match they might feel a touch unlucky not to have won.
France come into the match having pulled off an upset win over England by the score of 19-12. It's the World Cup and this is what the French do. They responded brilliantly following a very disappointing and shameful performance in their shock loss to Tonga. According to their coach Marc Lievremont, the squad "grew a big pair of balls." (which according to Google translates in French as "a grandi une grosse paire de boules" which clearly sounds a lot classier.) In their upset win over the English in which they started roughly 2.80 underdogs, it was the likes of Thierry Dusautoir and Imanol Harinordoquy who dominated and ultimately imposed a physicality on the match that the English had difficulty coping with. If the French squad that performed in such a manner against the English fronts up again this week, they could well book their place for the Final in a weeks time. But as the French typically are come tournament time, they're a tough team to get a feel for game-in game-out.
Both teams will look to continue playing a free and open brand of rugby which should make for an entertaining semi-final. It should be a tight contest, and should well come down to the wire. The Welsh squad is playing some brilliant rugby and only the All Blacks have scored more points in the tournament to date. Do the French maintain the testicular vigour that their coach commended them on following their win over the English? All of these factors make for an intriguing if unexpected semi-final
Verdict: Even though the odds are pretty tight for this semi, I feel they should just be a little tighter. I'll roll the dice on a moody French lineup and take them for the win.
New Zealand vs Australia
16th October - Eden Park, Aukland.
The All Blacks have opened firm favourites in this clash of traditional southern-hemisphere rivals at odds of 1.43 to the Wallabies 3.10 with the line at around the 7 to 7.5 mark. And so they should. New Zealand have made light work of their World Cup campaign so far, with perhaps their toughest challenge coming from a determined Argentina in the quarter-finals, a match the All Blacks would eventually come away comfortable 33-10 winners. It's safe to say that up until this stage of the tournament, the favourites to claim the 2011 crown have yet to be seriously tested.
And it's a test the home nation could likely face without reserve fly-half Colin Slade who was injured early in the quarter-final victory. Having already lost starter Dan Carter, this would mean third-string Aaron Cruden could get the start, a prospect the All Blacks hierarchy would not have likely considered heading into the tournament. Cruden was servicable in the win over Argentina, but despite his performance, the Australian's will be feeling far more comfortable with Cruden starting than had Carter or even Slade been fit for the confrontation.
The Wallabies have their own injury concerns. Pat McCabe's shoulder looks to once again be an issue, while Kurtley Beale is doubtful with a hamstring injury. But for all their injury issues, the Australian's have made hard work of the tournament so far. Having lost to Ireland in the pool stages, they overcame a poor performance against the reigning world champion Springboks last weekend to claim an unlikely victory much thanks to a determined and desperate defensive effort. That performance however was far from the form that could challenge an impressive All Blacks squad. Much will depend on whether Quade Cooper can have an impact. If he can, he will give the Wallabies every chance of causing an upset and leave the All Blacks on home turf with perhaps their greatest World Cup disappointment of them all.
It's been 25 years since Australia has won at Eden Park and if the oddsmakers are correct, the All Blacks will claim another win here giving them certain and heavy favouratism heading into the final. The Wallabies will look to distribute the ball amongst their backs and avoid a wrestle with the dominant Kiwi forwards. If they can do so, the upset is on the cards. The question is of course, can they? Another match akin to the South African quarter-final will certainly see the Australians in serious trouble.
Verdict: The All Blacks are deserved favourites. But despite their issues, the Australians can surely focus themselves and throw everything at the tournament favourites in what could well be the match of the tournament. Take the Wallabies +7.5 points.
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