ERNIE ELS TO BEAT RORY MCILROY @ 2.3

Everything is pointing to a thrilling four days of golf in the Surrey sunshine at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Before a ball is struck, it looks as open a tournament as I can remember and I wouldn't be surprised if there's an unfamilar look to the leaderboard for the first couple of days before the big guns begin their moves on Saturday.

Some great match-ups to look forward to as well. I'm using a bookmaker who offers 2-ball betting with the draw treated as "push" so stakes returned. Although it's not fair to say the 2-balls are even money the pair, it is fair to say that backing a player at significant odds-on is just plain daft. The matches are chosen to be between closely matched players and anything can happen over an 18-hole match so don't get too carried away with so called "good things".

My first bet is a good example: McIlroy vs. Els. The bookies make Rory big odds-on to win - probably because they know how popular he will be with the betting public (hence a big liability), and his aura means punters will play at a short price.

My angle is this: Rory has barely played one good round at Wentworth, and hasn't been close in this tournament in the past. He oftens starts badly - certainly hasn't been better than 3-over par in his last three visits here. Els would have won this bet in each of last three years - and he wasn't playing well then. He is in great form this year and will be confident coming into an event and at a course he loves so much. Els has the second lowest average round score at Wentworth (only Donald is marginally better). All things considered, I'd say Els should be favourite for this "match" - yet he's available at 2.30 which is a "must back" whatever transpires.

The theme continues with the next match Poulter vs Harrington. In the red corner, clothes-label designer Mr. Poulter versus understated 3-time major winner Harrington. Padraig hasn’t played this tournament as much he should, but in the last two times he's finished 6th and 24th - in those tournaments, Poulter was way down the field and missed the cut. Switch to current form, having rebuilt his swing Harrington is starting to look close to being back near his best. He has played some great golf recently and - most importantly for this bet - have been starting very quickly. Poulter has been consistent, had two great finishes at the Masters and Players championship (7th and 25th respectively) but he's not shown much at Wentworth and I fancy Padraig to scalp him in first round. Again Harrington is even money, Poulter odds on.

When you consider Graeme McDowell's talent AND how his game should be perfect for Wentworth, it's quite atonishing that in 9 starts he's never finished higher than 13th and his next best is 27th. His current form is ok but plays great in snatches and then fades away just as quickly. He has started slowly in a lot of tournaments and then finished best of the field on the weekend but to no avail. Westwood shows his experience at this course, famously finished 2nd last year in playoff with Donald and relinquished world #1 in doing so. Finished 10th previous year. In total control of his game and - putting aside - no one better right now. To show I'm not a formulaic fool, I'm going with Westwood at 1.725 to win this one.

Like his "opponent" in this match, Retief Goosen plays most of his golf on the US PGA tour, but his forays on the sunshine and European tours are pretty rewarding. Having played only 6 qualifying events, he's still 16th on race to dubai rankings. His stroke average on the european tour this year is a mouth-watering 69.74. That's lower than when he won the order of merit in 2002. He showed his game to be in good nick with a 5th in the Volvo World Matchplay event in Spain last week - Hanson was eliminated at the group stage. Both are in good form on the US tour, Hanson having the better of things with some superb finishes (3rd in Masters, 4th in Cadillac, 5th in Accenture World Matchplay). Both have a good record at Wentworth, but at the prices, the Goose is worthy of a small investment at 2.25.

My final selection in the 2-balls involves Francesco Molinari vs. Rafa Cabrera-Bello. On paper, at least, Molinari should win this one and should be a contender for the title this week. However, his ighest finish here is 17th in 8 attempts. Rafael's best finish is also 17th but from half as many attempts. Bello is a player on the rise - he was 210th in the world two years ago; last year he halved that to be (around) 105th in the world; and currently he's 57th in the world. At that rate, he'll be inside the top 30 this time next year - and quite frankly, I'll be disappointed if he isn't. His big breakthrough was his win in the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. Since then, he's featured in most tournaments and will see this one as the biggest opportunity this year. He finished 3rd at last week's Volvo world matchplay playing some great golf and taking some big scalps. This will be a close game between two evenly matched players, but the momentum is with C-bello, and at 2.25 is the bet.

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Offentliggjort: 24.05.2012, 00.12 CET (Visad: 525 gånger)
Senast redigerad: 24.05.2012, 10.44 CET av Samuel-Admin
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