Over 38.5 points
Tipped at: 1.50 - 12th Sep 22:28
understand this is a revenge spot for Russell Wilson as he now leads the Broncos, but I think this number has gotten far ahead of itself. I have this spread more like Denver -5.5, so there is a good amount of value around the key number of 6.
It is challenging to assume that a team will be clicking on all cylinders immediately with a new QB coming into a new system after 10 years in Seattle with a brand-new head coach, OC and offensive weapons. There is inevitably going to be some rust, and considering that Wilson didn’t take a single snap in the preseason, I’m not expecting the smoothest start to the game. Add in the fact that the Seattle coaching staff knows every weakness of Russ and is best prepared to slow him down, and I think Seattle has a shot to keep this competitive.
I also believe the market is undervaluing Seattle QB Geno Smith. He came into a tough situation last year halfway through a Thursday night game against the Rams and played well in his 3.5-game stint. In 2021, Geno ended up with the same PFF grade as Wilson. More impressively, he did it against a tough slate of defenses, having to face three top 8 DVOA pass defenses in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. Geno continued his solid play with an excellent preseason. He posted the 4th-highest PFF grade, 5th highest percentage of big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays on 45 dropbacks in the preseason. With two stellar WRs in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, along with a good run game behind Rashad Penny, who posted one of the best end-of-season stretches in the last 20 years, I believe this Seattle offense can compete very well.
The Denver defense is solid, but there will be a drop-off with the loss of head coach and defensive demon Vic Fangio. His cover 2 scheme has led to the league-wide craze that we have seen against the Chiefs and other big play offenses. There is no way the Broncos’ defense will confuse offenses the way Fangio could. Wilson is 13-16-2 ATS in his career as a road favorite of over 3 points, 4-11 ATS since 2016. Road favorites of at least 6 points in Week 1 have gone 5-8 ATS in the last 10 years. Road favorites of at least 6 points on MNF have gone only 19-21 ATS since 2002.
Seahawks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
2:15am
DEN
SEA
Spread
-6(-107)
+6.5(-114)
Money
Line
-260
+230
Over
Under
> 44(-110)< 44(-107)
Set Wager
Payout
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$1$5$10$20$30$40$50
$18.70
-115+6.5
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Clevta
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is challenging to assume that a team will be clicking on all cylinders immediately with a new QB coming into a new system after 10 years in Seattle with a brand-new head coach, OC and offensive weapons. There is inevitably going to be some rust, and considering that Wilson didn’t take a single snap in the preseason