PARTIZAN (-8.5) PTS AT ODDS 1.87

The initial handicap line of 13.5 pts droped a lot and now we have excellent chance to take home win here on this in my opinion too low (-8.5). Maybe 13.5 was too high set line and obviously that punters are thinking the same thing. Wherever I turn, I could hear the same thing these last couple days, Zvezda (+12.5), Zvezda (+11.5) even Zvezda in ML. Too many bets on away team here led us to these only 8 points and now home team to cover is in my opinion must take bet.
We should not be fooled by few bad games for Partizan lately. If the main reason to go with guests here is fact that Partizan is in bad form and that their morale is not high after elimination from Euroleague, then I have bad news for all those who think on this way. The facts are quite different. Elimination from EL will give only better motivation to hosts to overrun today's opponent, after all like they always did in years and years before.
Secondly, I don't think at all that Partizan is in bad shape. Defeats in Euroleague just can't be compared with games which Zvezda played in Adriatic since these are competitions on completely different level. Also couple defeats in Adriatic league were exactly consequence of playing in EL where there was always some more important upcoming game. Now EL is over and Partizan can be completely focused on Adriatic League. Also we should not forget that Zvezda is second worst team even in Adriatic league.
On the other side Partizan although finished competition in EL for this season, still we must admit that they had some great wins there. Victories against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid and final score 4-6 in strongest Euroleague group ever is not bad result. It's not bad result at all.
Ok, absence of Pekovic is slight problem for them now. But, lets be realistic. It is problem against stronger teams, but it can't be problem against Crvena Zvezda Beograd. Also Macvan is still out for playing in Adriatic (until January), but again, it is not important against team like Zvezda. Of course it would be better if he is in team now, but in that case handicap line certainly would be much higher. In any case Partizan have enough quality to beat Zvezda easily. The hosts are simply better team on all positions.
The guests are the ones who from my point of view were and still are in much biger problems. Lot of injuries during the season, the team simply had no chance to find the best form. The best player left the team. If we talk about Pekovic in Partizan, then we must mention Adam Morrison who was very important for guests. Also there is now new player - Tomas, but I am not sure how much he will be helpful since this will be his debut. In one thing I am sure, home fans will be pleased to create a good atmosphere where visiting players will not be able to show not even 50% of their quality.
One more thing that gives me right to think that Zvezda is still frivolous team like they were in many previous seasons, is their coach Pesic. I regarded him as one of the better Serbian coaches, but lately some of his statements were gently told, ridiculous. Instead to blame for poor results himself and his players, he decided that someone else is guilty. This is something that has already been seen at all coaches who were in Zvezda before him. It seems that the man lost his compass and by the way also lost basketball knowledge he had. Also for a guy of his age and the previous results, just seems incredible that he does not have the courage to move some players on the bench. I am talking here first of all about Filip Covic (23) who by the way is son of Nebojsa Covic, team's new owner. There are some more experienced and some younger players from him and more important in both cases much better players on the bench, but seems Filip Covic must play. But this is problem for Zvezda and this fact can only be helpful for home team.
My pick home team to cover (-8.5) line while expectation is Partizan with 15 pts or more.

1

Supporters

1. Maradona1

Posted on: 25.12.2011, 05.24 CET (Viewed: 557 times)
Last edited: 25.12.2011, 05.45 CET
Match starts on: December 25, 2011

10/10 on Partizan -8.5 at 1.87 with Bwin (Asian Handicap)

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