Louis Oosthuizen - E/w Malaysian Golf Open
|12-04-2012, 12:00||Louis Oosthuizen - E/w Malaysian Golf Open
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN E/W MALAYSIAN OPEN GOLF @ 12/1Final result: 1 - 0
Profit: 26.00 - 2 = 24
The European and Asian tours converge this week at the Maybank Malaysian Open in Kuala Lumpar. It used to be the case that Asian players had the upper hand in this event but such is the global appeal of the game, the push from sponsors, the lure of big prize money, and the prestige and associated ranking points, that the middle and far eastern tournaments such as the Malaysian Open attract some of the very best golfers in the world. This week fresh from the Masters, Oosthuizen, Schwartzel and Kaymer join a clutch of European tour stalwarts and a large contingent from the Asian tour in Malaysia.
The roll of honour at the Maybank Malaysian Masters from the previous twelve stagings of this event is an eclectic mix of both European and Asian golfing talent, and in the last two renewals there have been two young emerging players making a big breakthrough: Manassero last year and Noh in 2010 - both teenagers at the time.
My strategy this week is to pick a leading player, a couple of mid-table players, and a local outsider or two.
It usually pays to follow Thailand’s Thongchai Jaidee here as the only player to have won this title twice, but he will need to be rejuvenated (and he might) to play a leading role this week.
The Big-3: one of my favourite players from the current crop of talent is Louis Oosthuizen. This guy is no flash in the pan and he'll be competing at the sharp end of the major tournaments for some time to come. He only just failed in his bid for a second major within twleve months at the Masters last week, and should go close here if he's over his exertions last week and mentally prepared for this. I think back to McIlroy last year coming here after his Masters meltdown and performing remarkably well to finish 3rd. I really want to include Schwartzel in my staking plan this week but his form in the last three tournaments tells me he's not quite firing on cylinders at the moment and has to be overlooked at the cramped odds. Kaymer too just isn't on song right now - even at 60%, he's still better than 90% of this field but I have to pass him over on this occasion. Instead, I'm going to back Oosthuizen again as the class player in the field and hope he's feeling relaxed and ready to go. He has finished 6th here before but has also missed the cut twice so let's hope Mr Majors shows up this week.
We really have to hope the big boys don't fire this week - because if they do, there'll be fewer than 5/6 places up for grabs in the each-way stakes.
Last year's winner Manassero was disappointing in his last outing at the Sicilian Open when he shot two level-par rounds and missed the cut. Prior to that however, he was in sparkling form in Morocco and Andalucia and having failed to qualify for the Masters, has had the week off to fine tune his game. I think he'll put up a brave defence, but he doesn't squeeze into the staking plan this week.
I originally had fellow Yorkshireman Simon Dyson at the top of the team sheet. He used to ply his trade on the Asian Tour and usually reserves his best performances when returning to this part of the world. He has a great record in this particular tournament too, but alas his form coming into this week is too bad to be true and it would be miraculous if he was to put his recent playing woes behind him and sustain a challenge over four days. Simon recently became a father and the demands of balancing family and work life are probably having a temporary detrimental impact on his game - I know my game suffered when my kids were born!
There's a tempting top-20 market priced up by Paddy Power and Skybet, and I have a few value recommendations:
1) Marcus Fraser @ 7/2 with Skybet. Marcus is a classy professional (certainly relative to most of this field) with some strong finishes already this year. In particular he had a top-20 finish in the WGC Cadillac and a 4th place at the Avantha Masters in India. He plays much of his best golf in Asia and is sure to go well this week.
2) JBe Kruger @ 7/2 with Skybet. This talented South African followed up two professional wins in his own country with victory at the Avantha Masters in India earlier this year so he clearly likes the continent. He is ranked 1st on the Asian Tour for stroke average, 3rd for GIR, and 6th on driving average. That's just the game for this course.
3) Prom Meeseawat @ 5/1 with Skybet. Injured during 2011, he has come back as strong as ever. Three top ten finishes on Asian tour this year and ranked 4th on tour earnings. Could surprise and good bet to make top 20.
My e/w picks for the tournament are:
George Coetzee @ 28/1 - played consistently well this year so far, high finishes on tour, and the class to mix it with the big-3 here.
Louis Oosthuizen @ 12/1 - my pick of the big-3, much depends on his mental attitude and fitness coming into the tournament, but clearly general all-round game in top nick.
Marcus Fraser @ 80/1 - knows how to win, loves Asian golf, bits and pieces of form including 4th in India this year.
JBe Kruger @ 100/1 - winner of Avantha Masters, top ranked game on Asian Tour, will feel at home when others are aclimatising, could feature on leaderboard again at big price.
We need 1 or 2 of the top-20 finishers to return a profit there, and a top-5/6 golfer to profit from the outright picks. As usual, I'll be assessing the in-play hedge opportunities and potentially backing alternatives once we see how the course is playing and emerging players fair.
Posted on: 11.04.2012, 01.14 CET (Viewed: 224 times)
Last edited: 11.04.2012, 12.29 CET
Match starts on: April 12, 2012
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And one more where profit was wrong. This was also EW, so 1 unit on 13.00 and 1 units should be on odds 4.00. 13+4=17 Profit is 17-2= 15 units
Oosthuizen has great chances to win if he doesn't screw up the rest of his round 2. Nice choice!
Thanks :) I only meant the 8 pick minimum for the golf competition since its ending soon.. I will probably miss everything but i have nothing to lose since i surely won't be laying any money on them. Again, thank you.
Hi LaKukaracha... My honest advice is stick to what you know, golf is a difficult market to make profitable returns in. I personally play the game - around the world - and follow it fanatically so I understand the nuances of each course, knowledgeable about the players on each tour, and have watched these tournaments for years. Having said all that, if you want to give it a go then the following websites are good sources of information: www.pgatour.com www.europeantour.com www.asiantour.com As a starter, you could always review and follow (not necessarily financially) my selections...and there's no substitute for watching the tournaments (which may be a hurdle if you don't like the game!). Good luck.
longtermprofits, may i ask where do you collect valuable info about golf.. I am thinking about giving it a shot, you know, beginners luck and all.. In all honesty, i am ''one of those'' people who can't stand golf, but that shouldn't stop me from trying to win something right? Lady luck, intuition, certain name sounding good? :) My problem is those 100 words i need to scribble down! :)
Thanks LG... looking forward to the early mornings to watch the golf!
Excellent preview.. Good Luck