Liverpool - Everton

EVERTON TO BEAT LIVERPOOL FA CUP SEMI-FINAL @ 2/1

Big weekend of FA Cup football as the cream of London and Merseyside do battle at Wembley for a place in the Final. Tottenham, poor of late, take on Chelsea, themselves better of late, in an all-London match-up. But the bigger game, and the better game from a betting perspective, is between Liverpool and Everton on Saturday.

Liverpool are slight favourites with the bookies for this game, presumably because of their victory in the League Cup and recent 3-0 defeat of Everton at Anfield a few weeks ago. But if there is one thing we know about David Moyles' Everton team, is that they know how to get up for a game and learn from past performances. Just look at their Qtr-final replay demoltion of Sunderland at the Stadium of Light after the first game ended in a 1-1 draw at Goodison.

Liverpool are dire at present. Dalglish himself described the situation as "as bad as he can remember". They managed a 3-2 win against Blackburn midweek, but only after leading 2-0, getting a player sent off, and saving a penalty. They looked vulnerable that night against a poor Blackburn side. Before that, they etched out a 1-1 draw at home to Villa who dominated the game for the first 60 minutes - when did that last happen regularly at Anfield? Liverpool are down to their 3rd choice keeper who stands in front of porous back four, a malfunctioning midfield, and a misfiring attack.

Prior to the last gasp win at Blackburn and dour draw agaist Villa, Liverpool had lost 3 on the bounce against QPR, Wigan and Newcastle. Hardly form to strike fear into the Toffee men.

Everton, in contrast, have looked resolute for the latter part of the season and in Jelavic look to have found a striker with a keen eye for goal. Everton have won 4 of their last 5, drawing the other. This run has included a 4-0 thrashing of Sunderland and a 2-0 away win at Swansea. They haven't conceded a single goal in those four victories, and were only just held away by a spirited Norwich side. Their last defeat came against a high flying Arsenal and then only narrowly 1-0.

I really can't make a robust case for Liverpool. Of course, it's the cup and a chance to put their league woes behind them for a day, they'll see it as their only chance of glory and adding silverware to the dusty Anfield trophy cabinet before the end of the season, Dalglish and the Board need it to ease the pressure on the executive, and they have the experience of playing and winning at Wembley already this year. But those are hardly compelling arguments for supporting the Reds. In the league cup, they wilted after going ahead and were very lucky to defeat Cardiff on penalties.

Liverpool do have the best recent record in fixtures between the sides, winning 3 of the last 5. But, on neutral ground, I really think that counts much less than current form and confidence.

One could argue Everton have the greater incentive - Moyles, fans and players deserve a trophy. They are solid across every position. They have experienced players, balls winners, and flair players. If you could rank teams on their "value-add" - performance relative to individual abilities - Everton would come out top as the team that collectively performs above the sum of the individual parts. They are full of confidence and I too like their chances of claiming bragging rights in Merseyside at the weekend.

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Posted on: 11.04.2012, 17.10 CET (Viewed: 896 times)
Last edited: 11.04.2012, 18.23 CET
Match starts on: April 14, 2012

7/10 on Everton at 3.00 with BetVictor (Fixed Odds)

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