Academia Ocavio Pilotes Posada - Fraikin BM Granollers
|13-04-2012, 20:45||Academia Ocavio Pilotes Posada - Fraikin BM Granollers
GRANOLLERS +2.5 TO WIN @1.93Final result: 26 - 38
Profit: 9.65 - 5 = 4.65
Match from spanish handball league, Liga ASOBAL.
Due to Olympic Qualification rounds it has been now 2 weeks since the last games from Liga ASOBAL, and here we got the only match being played on Friday.
Granollers had 4 losses in a row before winning 2 weeks ago against Antequera, a team that shouldn't even play at all in this league. They only used 10-11 players, can't hope to win with that.
The final score for that game was 26-19 but this doesn't reflect the play I saw at the field. Granollers is playing quite bad, and I can't repeat it more in my tips: their wingers don't get balls! And they are good but those mean first row players...
But that's their attack, their defense is still the same. A very solid 6-0 defense that can keep most teams at bay because of the great job of their 20-years old keeper Gonzalo Perez de Vargas. God bless Barcelona if they let Granollers have him one more season!
In fact, the visitors almost have their full main roster when coming to this match. They recently recovered a pair of players who were injured and the only one who wont be there is the other main keeper but let the young one play 60 minutes, no problem at all.
Academia Octavio is on a diferent pace. They have yet to win a game in 2012 and they see this as their great chance. They shouldn't fear relegation though, they are +4 points (and goal average) on the top relegation team but I doubt Antequera will even get 4 points in the games left.
Octavio has a good mix of young and veteran players. Their main player is, in fact, only 19 years old (Pablo Cacheda). He has did have some amazing games during the first half of this season but it hasn't been the same lately.
Octavio are having problems with injuries and unlike other teams, their second team is not so strong so they suffer it in trainings, having worse training sessions than they should.
Their overall host record is 5-2-4 this season, while Granollers has 3-0-9 as an away team.
Their last encounter last November was a draw (only one for Granollers this season, Octavio ahs had 4). I don't expect a very intense match this Friday . I already talked about the recent form from both teams, nothing promising.
As I expect a very close game, with not many goals I have three betting options here:
-Under 55.5 at 1.99 (Pinnacle): teams might as well not defend at all, I don't like this line because overall form puts the average goal line at 56.3 games between the teams although recent form puts it way under that.
-Away +2.5 @1.93 (Pinnacle): My choice here. I'm feeling fear for draws at handball lately, lost about 20 stakes just for that in the past month so as I expect Granollers to win, I'm taking this handicap.
-Away @3.5 (bwin): Lot of value here, but I'm happier taking the handicap.
The handicap line might be lower when other bookies open it for the game. I may give further analysis if it varies a lot.
Posted on: 12.04.2012, 00.29 CET (Viewed: 294 times)
Last edited: 12.04.2012, 23.22 CET
Match starts on: April 13, 2012
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Big game from Malasinskas with 13 goals! Octavio had a very bad defense, reflected on the score, and as usual on Granollers games, they defend much worse when the other team defends badly so we got a very large score. Good thing we didn't go with the Under. The away bet clearly went through, and I did place a low stake on it at last minute because of the motivation I saw on Granollers players. Still, wingers only scored on counterattacking and Granollers will suffer from it against better opponents. As I side note, Angel Perales (central player from Valladolid) had cirurgy this week and I wish him the best. He has already missed almost all this season and we may not see him again in 6 or 8 months.
I have to leave and can't stay watching second half. Granollers started great on first half showing what I stated: They shouldn't be so much of an underdog here. 5 minutes before halftime and score is 9-17, visitors winning. They are performing great in defense and in counterattacking. Looks like it's on the good way!
Most bookies dropped the handicap to +1.5. In this situation it's way more worth it to go for the straight win from Granollers in my opinion.